Aguilar, Hoskins and O’Neill, Oh My!
As we have been tracking here all season, the overall season-long home run rate continues to track to around 5,600 home runs, which remains well-above the historical average but still below the record-shattering seasons that we have witnessed recently. As temperatures continue to warm around the country though, expect the home run rate to soar.
Top Performances of the Week
Jesus Aguilar, Miami Marlins, 4 HR
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies, 4 HR
Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals, 4 HR
10 others, 3 HR
Jesus Aguilar has proven to be a streaky hitter throughout his big league career, and if the past week and a half are any indication it’s time to ride the hot streak. The Marlins slugger cranked four home runs over the past week and has five long balls in his past seven games. Remember, this is a guy who crushed 35 homers and drove in 108 runs as recently as the 2018 season with the Brewers, so there’s massive upside here. He also currently leads the National League with 22 RBI.[[ad:athena]]
Rhys Hoskins is another guy that has shown the ability to go on power binges and it looks like he’s firing on all cylinders right now. He accomplished his four-homer week with a pair of multi-homer games -- one at Coors Field and another in St. Louis. He’s tied for the National League lead with eight homers, though he’s slashing just .231/.273/.529 with a 37/6 K/BB ratio over 104 plate appearances on the season.
Tyler O’Neill is the most interesting of the four-homer group this week for a couple of reasons. One, is that he’s owned in just 16% of all Yahoo leagues and is still available in many deep mixed leagues as well. He has shown elite exit velocity and sprint speed throughout his career and he put both of those tools on full display this week with a pair of combo meals (home run and stolen base in the same game). His full season slash doesn’t look very appealing, but since returning from the injured list on April 23, he’s hitting .346/.370/.808 with four homers, five RBI and a pair of stolen bases. Now is the time to buy if he’s available.
Among those that socked three dingers over the past week you have some interesting names. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did all of his damage in one epic game against the Nationals. He continues to hit the ball as hard as anyone in the league and the increases in launch angle are particularly intriguing. The 22-year-old now has seven bombs on the season. Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge and Fernando Tatis Jr. are studs in the fantasy game, so it’s no surprise to see them each blast three homers in a week.
Cedric Mullins is off to a tremendous start for the Orioles this season, slashing .337/.387/.545 with four homers, nine RBI and a pair of stolen bases. He’s batting leadoff everyday for the O’s and has flashed power and speed upside in the minors. Mullins is still just owned in 65% of Yahoo leagues, which seems far too low given how well he’s currently hitting the ball. Mullins’ teammate, Austin Hays also smacked three homers on the week, which is all that he’s hit in 13 games on the season. There’s upside there as well in deep mixed leagues.
Shohei Ohtani continues to put on a show at the plate, slashing a robust .283/.320/.652 with eight homers, 19 RBI and three swipes. As talented as he is, you have to wonder just how good he could be if he gave up on pitching and just focused on hitting full-time. Even as is, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go 40 HR / 15 SB and finish in the top 25 hitters for the season.
Jesse Winker and Franmil Reyes have always shown plenty of power potential, so it’s not surprising to see either of them crush three bombs in a given week. Sean Murphy was a bit more surprising. He’s always had plenty of offensive potential, but has never quite put it together for a full season at the big league level. He’s on a heater right now though, slashing .267/.365/.600 with four homers and eight RBI over his last 14 games. He’s not a bad option to ride in single catcher formats while he’s hot.
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My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders
Since I’m filling in for Brad this week and am unsure of the methodology that he uses to project his top 10, you’ll all get a look behind the curtain at who I project to finish as the top 10 home run hitters in the league this season!
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox, 9 HR, 48 projected
Ronald Acuna, Atlanta Braves, 8 HR, 47 projected
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins, 7 HR, 46 projected
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 6 HR, 45 projected
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, 7 HR, 44 projected
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics, 6 HR, 43 projected
Pete Alonso, New York Mets, 5 HR, 42 projected
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels, 8 HR, 40 projected
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies, 8 HR, 40 projected
Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians, 7 HR, 39 projected
There’s plenty of overlap here, but the rest of the players from Brad’s list from last week -- Byron Buxton, Nick Castellanos, Jared Walsh and Joey Gallo -- all currently project for fewer than 39 homers this season for me.
Martinez and Cruz continue to crush the power categories in the early going and are making many fantasy managers who passed on them because of their util-only eligibility immensely regret those decisions.
Ohtani I touched on a bit above -- after noting his three home runs this week -- but I think that as long as he remains healthy he’s a solid bet to blast 40 home runs this season. He’s at the top of the chart in max exit velocity and barrel percentage and continues to effortlessly drive the ball with power to all fields. He’s such a pleasure to watch.
The rest of the list are your perennial power hitters who usually litter this list, no major surprises. One player who’s off to a terrific start though and that I have just outside this list right now is Rafael Devers. The 24-year-old superstar has already crushed seven homers this season -- and of anyone that I don’t have listed in my top-10, he has the most potential to not only join this list, but finish the season at the top.
Injured Sluggers
New
Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks, hamstring surgery, late-July
Jazz Chisholm, Miami Marlins, hamstring strain, mid-May
Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants, oblique strain, late-May
Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals, foot strain, mid-May
Kole Calhoun underwent a rare surgical procedure on his hamstring and is expected to miss a minimum of six-to-eight weeks. Marlins dynamic shortstop Jazz Chisholm landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain. The hope is that he’ll be able to return after a couple of weeks. Mike Yastrzemski landed on the injured list with a strained oblique. Oblique injuries tend to linger and take longer than just a couple of weeks to heal, though the hope is that he’ll return before the end of the month. Yadier Molina was placed on the injured list with a right foot strain. The expectation is that he should return when first eligible.
Existing
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates, wrist strain, return uncertain
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers, back strain, soon
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins, hamstring strain, May
Sam Huff, Texas Rangers, knee surgery, July as DH-only
Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers, knee surgery, season-ending
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals, shoulder, early-May
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks, oblique, early-May
Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati Reds, fractured hamate, early-June
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks, hamstring, late-April return
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers, calf strain and stress fracture, uncertain
Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox, torn pectoral, September return
Luke Voit, New York Yankees, knee, mid-May
Miguel Andujar, New York Yankees, wrist, return date unknown
Khris Davis, Texas Rangers, quad strain, early-May return
Starling Marte, Miami Marlins, ribs, return uncertain
Luke Voit (knee) is slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment next week and the Yankees are hopeful that he’ll be able to return to action in the middle of the month when they begin their road trip in Tampa Bay. Ke’Bryan Hayes (wrist) was checked out by the doctor and received a good prognosis, but there’s still no clear timetable for his return. Christian Yelich (back) underwent an MRI on his back and the results were good. He was able to participate in a simulated game on Thursday and is nearing a return. Juan Soto (shoulder) resumed throwing over the weekend, but the Nationals are being careful not to rush him back into action.
Returned to Action
Quite a few of the players that we were monitoring in this space last week returned to action, which is promising news for fantasy managers. Both George Springer (oblique, quad) and Teoscar Hernandez (COVID-19) returned to action for the Blue Jays, with Hernandez crushing a homer in his return to the lineup. Tyler O’Neill (who we featured above) obviously returned with a bang for the Cardinals.
Anthony Rendon (groin) returned to the Angels lineup on Monday and has a couple of hits and three RBi since returning. Jose Altuve (COVID-19) had three hits and a stolen base in his return to the Astros, showing no rust after his long layoff. Max Kepler and Mike Moustakas also rejoined their respective lineups this week.
For more injury updates, check out our MLB Injury Report.
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Power Spotlight
We’re still early enough in the season that we’re able to profile a player that has yet to hit a home run on the season, but who may have a power breakout on the horizon. Brad has been successful in this space projecting Jorge Polanco’s breakout during the 2019 campaign and I believe that he’ll have similar success with last week’s selection of Willi Castro.
The guy that I want to take a deeper look at here is Mike Tauchman. The 30-year-old hasn’t hit a long ball at the big league level since the 2019 season, but there he crushed 13 homers in only 296 plate appearances with the Bronx Bombers. With the recent trade to the Giants (combined with the injury to Mike Yastrzemski), he should have a chance to find himself in the lineup on a fairly regular basis, and he has enough power (and speed) potential to make a difference in mixed leagues.
He has only had 15 batted ball events this season -- so the sample is extremely limited -- but it looks like he has improved his launch angle (12.2 on average compared to 10.6 in 2020 and 11.3 in 2019).
He has also swiped six bases in each of the last two seasons -- and has stolen two bases already in 24 plate appearances to begin the 2021 campaign. He’s only rostered in 2% of Yahoo Leagues and isn’t likely to be a worthwhile option in shallow formats -- but in deep mixed leagues where power and speed combinations are extremely scarce commodities -- and in NL-only formats -- he makes for a particularly interesting addition
