Over the last two weeks, we’ve looked at the 2013 and 2014 MLB Draft. Now it’s time for 2015 -- a draft that features some star potential, but appears to be lacking in depth.
A quick look at some rules:
- The focus is mostly on what the player can offer in the future, but their previous success is also applied.
- Every team gets a pick, and teams that had more than one first-round selection had their extra choice removed.
- Positional need was not considered, a best-player-available approach was taken with all selections.
Now, the 2015 MLB redraft.
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1. Arizona Diamondbacks
The pick: Alex Bregman, INF
Originally drafted: 1.2 (Astros)
Actual 1st pick: Dansby Swanson, SS
Bregman was a collegiate star at LSU, and while there were questions about whether or not he’d be able to handle shortstop -- his collegiate position -- there weren’t many about his bat. He’s been even better than anticipated; finishing in the Top 5 of MVP voting the last two years, posting a career .911 OPS and even playing a solid shortstop when asked. Bregman is a rare combination of ceiling and floor, and he’s likely to be one of the best infielders in baseball for the next decade or so. All due respect to Swanson, but this isn’t close.
2. Colorado Rockies
The pick: Walker Buehler, RHP
Originally drafted: 1.24 (Dodgers)
Actual 2nd pick: Bregman, INF (Astros)
The Rockies and everyone else get to move up a spot in this draft, as this pick was given to the Astros for failing to sign Brady Aiken. We’ll get to him. Buehler was another SEC star -- in his case Vanderbilt -- but he slid in the draft because of concerns involving his elbow, and underwent Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery not long after signing with the Dodgers. The 25-year-old has been outstanding in his first two years of full MLB action with 378 strikeouts against 82 walks in 62 games, and he owns a 3.26 ERA in his 2.5 seasons with Los Angeles. The scary thing is that Buehler is likely to get better, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if he’s the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to the middle of the decade. What a steal Buehler was for the Dodgers in 2015.[[ad:athena]]
3. Texas Rangers
The pick: Chris Paddack, RHP
Originally drafted: 8.236 (Marlins)
Actual 3rd pick: Brendan Rodgers, INF (Rockies)
Paddack was not an unknown coming out of high school -- the Marlins had to give the right-hander a $400,000 bonus to keep him from college -- but to say that his stock has improved is the understatement of this article. After putting up incredible numbers in the Miami system, Miami shipped him to San Diego for Fernando Rodney (editor’s note: Whoops), and while he also underwent Tommy John surgery, he established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball. Even with a couple of clunkers, Paddack was still able to register a 3.33 ERA with a 153/31 K/BB ratio, and that was despite allowing 23 homers in a year where the baseball may have been made out of silly putty. Paddack is one of the true potential stars on the mound, and he could be fighting Buehler for that top pitching spot in a few years.
4. Houston Astros
The pick: Andrew Benintendi, OF
Originally drafted: 1.7 (Red Sox)
Actual 4th pick: Dillon Tate, RHP
Choosing between Benintendi and the choice at five -- don’t scroll down yet, that’s cheating -- was the most difficult decision so far in these redrafts. Ultimately, I’m going with the position player over the pitcher, but this is incredibly close. Benintendi was a draft-eligible sophomore who saw his stock soar after a strong season with Arkansas, and at one point, was considered the top prospect in baseball. He’s been a solid performer for the Red Sox with a career OPS+ of 109, but he hasn’t lived up to the potential, and he regressed in 2019 with a .266/.343/.431 line. I’m still a big believer in his skill set, but 2020 (assuming it happens) is going to be crucial for Benintendi.
Tate was drafted out of UCSB and was widely considered the top pitching prospect in the class. His stuff almost immediately regressed, and he’s been dealt twice in deadline deals to the Yankees and Orioles, respectively. He’s still just 26, but Tate appears to be nothing more than organizational fodder now.
5. Minnesota Twins
The pick: Mike Soroka, RHP
Originally drafted: 1.28 (Braves)
Actual 5th pick: Kyle Tucker, OF (Astros)
Again, this was difficult. Soroka was drafted out of Canada with the 28th pick, and almost immediately it was obvious that was a steal. The right-hander reached the majors in 2018, and he was outstanding in 2019 with a 2.68 ERA and 142/41 K/BB over 174-plus innings for Atlanta last year. The only concern I have is that Soroka has dealt with shoulder issues, and those have a nasty habit of reappearing. He also doesn’t have Paddack or Buehler’s upside (note: very few do), but as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to pitch at or near the top of a rotation.
6. Boston Red Sox
The pick: Kyle Tucker, OF
Originally drafted: 1.5 (Astros)
Actual 6th pick: Tyler Jay, LHP (Twins)
We’re just-under five years removed from the 2015 draft, so it shouldn’t shock you that there are prospects selected in this group. Not to get depressing, but it’s a little concerning there aren’t more in this redraft. This was not a great draft so far. Tucker actually isn’t technically a prospect by definition, but for all intents and purposes, yes he is. He was awful in his first taste of MLB action in 2018 (.439 OPS), but was much better in his cup of coffee last fall (.857), and in between he showed the ability to hit for average, power and steal bases. He only ranks this “low” because of what the others have done at the highest level, but Tucker has star potential.
Jay was drafted after operating mostly as a reliever at Illinois, and was perceived to be one of the quick-advance prospects by many, including yours truly. He hasn’t been awful in the minors with a 3.78 ERA in 120 career games, but like Tate, the stuff hasn’t been there, and he’s dealt with injury problems. Now a member of the Reds’ organization, Jay could make his MLB debut this summer if the opportunity to do so exists.
7. Chicago White Sox
The pick: Paul DeJong, SS
Originally drafted: 4.131 (Cardinals)
Actual 7th pick: Benintendi (Red Sox)
DeJong was drafted without fanfare in the fourth-round by the Cardinals out of Illinois State, but he impressed in the minors, and he’s been a very solid -- if not necessarily consistent -- player for St. Louis in three years as a regular. He’s hit just .241 and .233 over the last two seasons, but he’s added 49 homers in that time frame, and he’s been an excellent defender at shortstop for good measure. You have to deal with some ups-and-downs with DeJong, but the overall work makes him an above-average shortstop.
8. Chicago Cubs
The pick: Brendan Rodgers, INF
Originally drafted: 1.3 (Rockies)
Actual 8th pick: Carson Fulmer, RHP (White Sox)
Here’s the first “true” prospect in the draft, and it’s a good one in Rodgers. He struggled in his time with the Rockies last year before going down with a shoulder injury, but again, it’s the small sample size blues. He’s a middle-infielder who has a chance to hit for both average and power, and he should be able to provide a couple of steals, as well. My one concern with Rodgers is that he’ll need to do a better job of controlling the strike zone, but there’s still star potential in his right-handed bat, and he won’t turn 24 until August.
Fulmer was one of the more volatile prospects in the draft -- some thought he was a potential ace, some thought he was destined for relief. I was in the latter camp, and I’d say I was right but he’s been worse than I anticipated in any role. He owns a 6.56 ERA in the majors in 94 2/3 frames, and his 5.01 ERA in the minors isn’t exactly anything to write home about; nor is his 192 walks in 353 2/3 innings. There’s time for Fulmer to turn things around -- and the stuff is still electric -- but he’s shown no signs of turning it around.
9. Philadelphia Phillies
The pick: Dansby Swanson, SS
Originally drafted: 1.1 (Diamondbacks)
Actual 9th pick: Happ (Cubs)
It wasn’t a huge surprise that Swanson went first-overall after his prolific career at Vanderbilt, but it’s worth pointing out that most folks had Rodgers as the top prospect in the draft, but Newman was considered more of a “sure thing” and easier to sign. The Diamondbacks gave him $6.5 million, but he wasn’t a member of the organization for long; moving to Atlanta in the disastrous Shelby Miller trade. He was impressive in his short time with the Braves in 2016, but he posted back-to-back seasons of sub-.700 OPS seasons in 2017 and 2018 before being better with the bat in 2019 with a .251/.352/.422 line. Swanson is a capable defender at shortstop, but he’s going to have to cut down the strikeouts and make more hard contact to ever come close to justify being the first-overall pick. He’s nice value for the Phillies here at nine in this fake one, however.
10. Cincinnati Reds
The pick: Ian Happ, 2B/OF
Originally drafted: 1.9 (Cubs)
Actual 10th pick: Cornelius Randolph, SS
Happ was a superstar at Cincinnati, and it was a little surprising to see him fall this far in the original draft because of his ability to do everything. He’s had a roller coaster career so far, but a small one; the kind you see for toddlers at fairs. One of the reasons to be optimistic going forward is that he cut his strikeout rate down in 2019 to 39 in 58 games from the 167 he had in 142 the previous season. Happ is by no means a perfect player, but he’s shown enough with the bat as a 25-year-old to believe he’s deserving of a high draft pick -- just maybe not as high as he would have gone a couple years ago.
Randolph owns a career line of .255/.343/.376 and has dealt with contact issues, and is unlikely to ever make a substantial MLB impact.
11. Miami Marlins
The pick: Kevin Newman, SS
Originally drafted: 1.19 (Pirates)
Actual 11th pick: Tyler Stephenson, C
Those of you who have followed my work for a while -- thanks and sorry -- may know that I was a big fan of Newman coming out of Arizona, and I was shocked that he fell this far in the draft. A couple of so-so seasons in the minors followed by an ugly stint with Pittsburgh in 2018 (.478 OPS) had me questioning my faith, but 2019 reaffirmed it. Newman hit .308/.358/.446 for the Pirates with 12 homers, 16 steals and was a 3.1 bWAR player in his first full season in the majors. You shouldn’t expect many more homers than that, but he could hit for an even higher average because of his ability to make hard contact, and the steals should be there as well. Newman is a really good -- and underrated -- player.
12. San Diego Padres
The pick: Brandon Lowe, INF/OF
Originally drafted: 3.87 (Rays)
Actual 12th pick: Josh Naylor (Marlins)
Lowe showed some flashes in an inconsistent 148 plate appearances in 2018, but really impressed in 2019 with an .850 OPS with 17 homers in his 82 games in 2019. He was limited to just those 82 games because of a shin injury and quad strain while rehabbing, but it shouldn’t be a long-term issue and he was able to return late in September. The former Maryland Terrapin has mostly played second base, but he’s also capable of playing in the outfield and first base. Lowe’s versatility and power are very intriguing, and if he can do what he did in 2019 for a full season or two, he could go a few spots higher if/when we do this again.
13. Tampa Bay Rays
The pick: Scott Kingery, INF/OF
Originally drafted: 2.48 (Phillies)
Actual 13th pick: Garrett Whitley, OF (Rays)
Kingery was Newman’s double-play partner at Arizona, and after being selected with that 48th pick, he really impressed in the minors; so much so that the Phillies gave him a long-term contract before he played an inning in the majors. He was not ready in 2018 as seen in his .605 OPS, but he was much better in 2019 with a .258/.315/.474 line with 19 homers and 15 steals in an even 500 plate appearances. He’s also shown the ability to play all over the field, and while he may always be a super-utility player, he has the upside to be an above-average regular at whatever position he’s at. There’s still plenty of reason for optimism for Kingery.
If Whitley’s name sounds familiar and you’re not a big prospect aficionado, you might remember him from being the prospect who was struck in the face with a foul ball and suffered facial fractures this spring before the shutdown. He was viewed as a potential five-tool player coming into the draft, but his .236/.344/.398 line in four-plus seasons -- he missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury -- help illustrate that he has not lived up to those expectations.
14. New York Mets
The pick: Willie Calhoun, OF
Originally drafted: 4.132 (Dodgers)
Actual 14th pick: Kolby Allard, LHP (Braves)
Calhoun was drafted out of Yavapai College in Arizona, and after raking in the Dodgers’ system for a couple years, he was the top prospect sent to the Rangers in the deal that shipped Yu Darvish to Los Angeles. He’s been up-and-down -- mostly down in 2017 and 2018 -- but after getting a call-up last summer, he reminded why he was so highly thought of with an .848 OPS and 21 homers over 83 games and 337 plate appearances. There are defensive questions to be sure, but Calhoun can hit, and it’s certainly worth pointing out that he doesn’t turn 26 until early November. It’s a bit of a risk, but Calhoun has the most offensive upside of the players left in this draft.
15. Atlanta Braves:
The pick: Austin Riley, OF/3B
Originally drafted: 1.41 (Braves)
Actual 15th pick: Trent Grisham (Brewers)
Somewhat interestingly, Riley was considered a two-way prospect coming out of the draft, and many preferred his plus fastball/curve combination coming out of DeSoto Central HS in Mississippi. The Braves went the offensive route, and it appears to be the right call. He finished his 80 games with Atlanta in 2019 with a lackluster .226/.279/.471 line, but he also hit 18 homers in that timeframe, and anyone who watched Riley early on is very aware of his offensive potential. He’s going to have to be more patient at the plate, but if he can improve the ugly 108/16 K/BB ratio going forward, he has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order hitter. Can’t say that about too many other hitters in this class.
