Tonight we have a massive 15-game slate with a lot of pitching options. After not having many top pitching choices on Monday, this slate is the exact opposite. I don’t think you’ll be able to play too many two-ace lineups, and you should mix your top-end options if you’re playing a lot of teams.
As always, make sure to check weather and lineups before lineup lock. As always, make sure to also check MLB lineups and MLB weather before lineup lock. Now, let’s get into some of my top DFS plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Pitcher
Luis Castillo @ Miami Marlins
I never want to talk anyone off of Justin Verlander, and if you want to pay up for him, he should be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate. That said, I really like the discount for Castillo in this matchup against Miami. Castillo has a .247 wOBA with a .106 ISO and a 26.9% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, and he should face six to seven right-handed hitters in this lineup tonight. The biggest issue with Castillo is walks, which should be okay against this young free-swinging Marlins offense. He’s the top pitcher on this slate for me when we consider price.
Yu Darvish @ New York Mets
Darvish struggled in his last start against the Giants, but he’s in a great bounce-back spot against the Mets. Darvish has a 15.8% swinging strike rate with a 37.6% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. That’s much higher than his 13.2% swinging strike rate with a 29.2% strikeout rate on the season. He’s throwing his fastball less and using his cutter 10.3% more over the last 30 days. The projected starting lineup for the Mets has struggled with cutters outside of Alonso and Conforto; those are the only two bats I worry about in this matchup for Darvish.
Catcher
Josh Phegley @ Kansas City Royals
Oakland is one of my favorite low-owned stacks on this slate, but I think you can play Phegley regardless. I like targeting cheaper catchers in good matchups, and that’s what we get with Phegley. He has a .205 ISO with a .342 wOBA and an 8.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. He also has a 42.2% hard-hit rate against lefties. Meanwhile, Montgomery has a .341 wOBA with a .209 ISO and a 19.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters.
First Base
Rhys Hoskins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Steven Brault usually does a good job of not getting blown up, but he’s facing a Phillies offense that has a lot of power against left-handed pitching, and Philadelphia’s price points are down across the board. Brault has a .352 wOBA with a 36.2% hard-hit rate and a 17.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, while Hoskins has a .278 ISO with a .436 wOBA and a 50% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. He’s one of my favorite plays on this slate.
Second Base
Jason Kipnis @ Detroit Tigers
I think second base is a good spot to save some salary tonight. Spencer Turnbull is not a bad pitcher, but he does struggle with left-handed hitters. He just doesn’t have a strikeout pitch against lefties, and he has a .351 wOBA with a 17.8% strikeout rate and a 42% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Kipnis has been a lot better in the second half of the season, and he has a .189 ISO with a .332 wOBA and a 16.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. There is going to be a lot of contact in this spot – let’s just hope it is good contact.
Third Base
Rafael Devers @ Colorado Rockies
I hate writing up hitters in Coors, but I always try to highlight my favorite hitter on each slate. Devers is the top hitter on this slate for me. The man is hitting .422 with a 1.281 OPS and 12 extra base hits in his last ten games, and while Rico Garcia has potential, I think they’re moving him up too fast. He has a 17.4% strikeout rate with a 1.75 WHIP and a 2.11 HR/9 in AAA this season, whereas Devers has a .277 ISO with a .419 wOBA and a 93.7 average exit velocity against right-handed pitchers this season. If you can pay up for him, do so on this slate.
Shortstop
Jean Segura vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Segura has been elite against left-handed pitching this season, as he has a .305 ISO with a .419 wOBA and a 320.2 average air distance against lefties. He also has a 91.2% contact rate with a 9.6% strikeout rate. With his ability to hit lefties hard and avoid strikeouts, he’s always a top play for me when he’s facing left-handed pitching. Like I mentioned above, Brault doesn’t have a real strikeout pitch against righties, which makes me like Segura even more in this matchup.
Outfield
Juan Soto vs. Baltimore Orioles
There are a lot of top-end options on this slate, but Washington could potentially fly under the radar against one of the worst pitchers on this slate. Brooks has a below average strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. He also has a .389 wOBA with a .276 ISO and a 40.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Meanwhile, Soto has a .295 ISO with a .428 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. I think there is a lot of upside for Washington against Brooks and this bad Baltimore bullpen.
Joc Pederson @ San Diego Padres
This is not the best ballpark in the world, and you always have to worry about Pederson being pinch hit for. With that said, Quantrill has really struggled with left-handed hitters this season, as he has a .174 ISO with a 46.3% hard-hit rate against. While Pederson has been hit or miss this season, he still has a lot of power against right-handed pitching. He has a .280 ISO with a 44.5% hard-hit rate and a 309.6 average air distance against right-handed pitching.
