Tonight we have a massive 15-game slate, and after that tiny slate yesterday, I’m looking forward to the larger number of games. There are some strong high-end pitching options, as well as some risky cheap pitchers with upside here this evening. Overall, this sets up as a fun slate, particularly since it’s the last Tuesday slate we have before the All-Star break.
As always, make sure to also check MLB lineups and MLB weather before lineup lock. Now, let’s get into some of my top DFS plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Pitcher
Patrick Corbin vs. Miami Marlins
Corbin has pitched well in back-to-back games after struggling for a few starts, and he just dominated this Marlins team last week. The starting lineup for the Marlins has a .080 ISO with a .281 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, and it’ll have eight-handed hitters in the lineup tonight. Corbin has a .303 wOBA with a .158 ISO and a 24.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. As such, I think he’s a really good cash game option, yet I also think he has the upside to win you a tournament.
James Paxton @ New York Mets
Paxton was hit or miss in June, and he was touched up for six earned runs against the Mets in Yankee Stadium a few weeks ago. I played him in that start, and it didn’t work out, but I’m willing to go right back to the well in tournaments. Paxton has struggled with power bats this season, and his command hasn’t been the best. With all that said, he has a 29 percent strikeout rate with a 13.8 percent swinging strike rate on the season. Paxton always has a lot of upside because of his strikeout ability, but the downside of the walks is the reason I’d only play him in tournaments.
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal @ Cincinnati Reds
If you’re like me, you like to spend down at catcher, and I don’t mind doing that with whoever starts for Tampa or by fully punting with Mathis. If I’m going to spend up on this slate though, Grandal draws an excellent matchup against Tanner Roark. The Brewers are one of my favorite pivots off Coors Field tonight, as Roark has a .383 wOBA with a .199 ISO against left-handed hitters this season. The righty has surrendered a 1.51 HR/9 rate this season against lefties, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number goes up in the summer with him pitching in that small ballpark.
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt @ Seattle Mariners
Goldschmidt is slumping and this whole Cardinals offense is struggling at the plate. However, there will be an opener for Seattle tonight, and then the Cardinals will face Wade LeBlanc, who has a .337 wOBA with a .200 ISO and a 15.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He also has a 35.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters. Goldschmidt has a .266 ISO with a .406 wOBA with a 51.5 percent hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers since the start of 2018. He’s always been great against left-handed pitching, and hopefully this matchup can help him get back on track.
Second Base
Jose Altuve @ Colorado Rockies
I try to stay away from writing up a lot of bats in Coors Field, but Altuve is too cheap on DraftKings tonight. It’s not the best matchup on paper, and I’m hoping that could potentially keep his ownership down. Given the ballpark and the fact that this game has a 13.5 implied total, I think everyone from both sides of this game is in play. Altuve has struggled with right-handed pitching this season, but we know the talent is there, and I think he’s starting to get close to being 100 percent healthy.
Third Base
Jose Ramirez @ Kansas City Royals
After a slow start to the season, Ramirez and this whole Indians offense has been a lot better. Jakob Junis has a .384 wOBA with a .225 ISO and a 20.8 percent strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. He’s more of a ground ball pitcher, but he does have a 41.8 percent hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters. Ramirez is a fly ball hitter and should benefit from facing a ground ball pitcher with a high hard-hit rate. He is still super cheap across the industry, so I like him if you’re trying to fit in some other big bats.
Shortstop
J.P. Crawford vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I don’t mind using Jack Flaherty as a pitching option tonight, but Crawford and Vogelbach are the two bats I’d be worried about if I was using him. Crawford is 17 for his last 42 (.405) at the plate with seven extra base hits, and he also has a .228 ISO with a .395 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Flaherty has been really good against right-handed hitters, but he still struggles with left-handed hitters, as he has allowed a .360 wOBA with a .250 ISO and a 48.6 percent hard-hit rate.
Outfield
Christian Yelich @ Cincinnati Reds
I talked about the Brewers above, and with Yelich being just as expensive as the Coors bats, I’d expect him to be a little lower owned tonight. I like to use Yelich, who has a .395 ISO with a .495 wOBA and a 55.6 percent hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season, against fly ball pitchers, and this is a favorable ballpark for home runs. Yelich is putting together an MVP season and should be considered a top play on any slate; it’s just a plus he faces a fly ball pitcher tonight.
Austin Meadows vs. Baltimore Orioles
I think the Rays are a good secondary stack tonight, as they’re underpriced for this matchup against Asher Wojciechowski, who really struggled in 2017 with the Reds. He has a 5.50 xFIP with a 2.02 HR/9 and a 23.6 percent strikeout rate in AAA this season. In 2017, Wojciechowski had a .410 wOBA with a .285 ISO and a 47.4 percent fly ball rate against left-handed hitters. Meadows continues to perform well against right-handed pitching, and this price point makes him a play in all formats tonight.
