All season long, the closer tiers in this column reflected the quality of each reliever. They weren’t judged solely on what they’ve accomplished. Sure, the past informs future expectations, but performance isn’t linear. Just because a pitcher posts a big saves total doesn’t mean he’s a good closer. Exhibit A: Jeanmar Gomez.
With the season ending in five days, it no longer makes sense to rank closers based on what they’ll do in the future. The future is now. Today’s my chance to flip the script based on the actual results rather than the projections. I’ve included deposed closers in the rankings. Closers with fewer than 10 saves were excluded (sorry Angels fans, none of your relievers passed that threshold), leaving us with 42 names.
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Tier 1: Elite (5)
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Mark Melancon, Washington Nationals
Aroldis Chapman, Chicago Cubs
While Jansen didn’t save the most games, he came awfully close with 47 saves. There’s still an outside chance he’ll catch up to Familia’s 49 saves in the next five days. Jansen earned the top spot by posting superb ratios and the second most saves. Britton is nipping on Jansen’s heels. The Orioles fireman has even better ratios with fewer strikeouts and 46 saves. Despite likely finishing with the most saves Familia only ranks third here due to merely above average ratios.
Melancon quietly posted another fantastic season even though he’s visually less impressive than the others in this tier. There’s no arguing with his numbers – a 1.71 ERA, 44 saves, and 8.30 K/9. On a rate basis, Chapman challenges for the top spot. Missing all of April cost him the saves necessary to actually qualify for the top spot.
Tier 2: Nearly Elite (6)
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Francisco Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Osuna spent almost the entire season ranked sixth in this column. I’m pleased to see his production matched my expectations. What Osuna lacked in elite save totals, he made up for with solid ratios and strikeouts.
Colome was a great find on the early season waiver wire. He quietly locked down 35 saves with a 1.84 ERA, and one of the top strikeout rates in the game.
Ramos missed a chunk of the season, and he walked too many batters. He also avoided damage more often than not. While his 4.35 xFIP has me scared about future seasons, there’s nothing wrong with a 2.86 ERA and 39 saves.
K-Rod’s production skewed heavily towards saves. His ratios were merely adequate. Kimbrel was good in save situations. Unfortunately, several non-save disasters and an injury torpedoed his value. He continued to provide elite strikeouts. Allen also brought the whiffs along with similar overall numbers to Kimbrel.
Tier 3: Core Producers (7)
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Sam Dyson, Texas Rangers
Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Jeanmar Gomez, Philadelphia Phillies
Ryan Madson, Oakland Athletics
Seung-Hwan Oh, St. Louis Cardinals
Robertson had me breaking out the Tums on more than one occasion. Several meltdowns peppered his stat line. If they White Sox were contending, there’s a real chance Nate Jones might have claimed the ninth inning (Jones had some problems too). Robertson still managed 36 saves and a good strikeout rate. The ERA and WHIP were disappointing.
Another freebie, Dyson saved 37 games are taking over as the Rangers closer in mid-May. He could have been right alongside Familia if he spent the whole year pitching the ninth. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – Dyson is a poor man’s Britton.
Injuries and a decline in peripherals pushed Davis out of the elite tier. The results remained positive including a 1.96 ERA and no home runs allowed. Davis will be tough to project heading into 2017.
Casilla lost his job as the Giants closer earlier this month. Right up until his demotion, he was keeping pace with the second tier talent. A good strikeout rate and 31 saves are offset by a mediocre ERA and WHIP.
Gomez somehow saved 37 games. And if you picked him up for free, you’re undoubtedly happy with the end results. He was a one category asset, but it’s also the scarcest category.
It seemed like Madson was constantly blowing saves. The end of season numbers say otherwise – a 3.65 ERA with 7.15 K/9 and 30 saves will play in any lineup.
Oh’s the best of the rest. He barely squeaked into this tier because he recorded only 18 saves. His other categories were so good that he deserved a spot among the core closers. Once he notches two more strikeouts, he’ll pass the vaunted 100 strikeout mark. Only seven relievers have achieved that total this season.
Tier 4: Partially Good (13)
Tyler Thornburg, Milwaukee Brewers
Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
Edwin Diaz, Seattle Mariners
Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians
Jeremy Jeffress, Texas Rangers
Steve Cishek, Seattle Mariners
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
Brad Ziegler, Boston Red Sox
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Fernando Rodney, Miami Marlins
Ken Giles, Houston Astros
This is a weird glob of talent. We have elite part-time firemen, decent most-of-the-time closers, and some other guys who accrued saves. Thornburg, Herrera, Diaz, Miller, Betances, and Rondon all have the stuff and numbers to rank in the first or second tier – if only any of them had closed for more than half a season. Rondon had the longest tenure, but the Cubs never handed him save opportunities.
Cishek, Ziegler, Gregerson, and Rodney don’t feel as if they should fit here. They all lost their jobs, three to poor performance and one (Ziegler) via trade. Cishek and Rodney knocked down 25 saves – tied for the second most in this tier. Ziegler had 22 saves and Gregerson tallied 15.
Jeffress wasn’t the flashiest closer in this group, but he did tally 27 saves before heading to Texas and a month in alcohol rehab.
Johnson was a late-season surprise. He provided fantastic value down the stretch commensurate with a first or second tier value. Unfortunately, he offered almost no production earlier in the season. If you grabbed him when Vizcaino hit the skids, you were treated to a great rate of saves and strong secondary stats.
Giles struck out all of the hitters (14.06 K/9). He was a little too meltdown prone, leading him to lose his job in April. He had to wait for Gregerson and Harris to fail before he got his second chance. Speaking of Gregerson, the right-handed slider specialist probably didn’t deserve to lose the ninth inning.
Tier 5: Patches (6)
Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates
Will Harris, Houston Astros
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Brandon Maurer, San Diego Padres
Brandon Kintzler, Minnesota Twins
Jonathan Papelbon, Free Agent
Watson was fine while replacing Melancon. That’s kind of how patches work – they’re fine most of the time. Harris also passed muster while plugging away for 12 saves. A brief rough patch opened the door for Giles.
Vizcaino showed promise and tallied good numbers before his most recent return from the disabled list. As long as you stuck with Johnson in August, you probably got what you expected out of Vizcaino – 10 saves, strikeouts, and too many walks.
Maurer seems like he should be better than he is. It’s a common refrain since his debut in 2013. Maurer mixed dominant outings with frequent meltdowns.
Kintzler was good. What he lacked in strikeouts and save opportunities, he made up in ERA and WHIP. He’s a simpler version of Dyson – better command and fewer whiffs.
Papelbon’s tenure in the capitol couldn’t have had a worse finish. He still nabbed 19 saves with good numbers right up until his hasty return from an intercostal injury. Somebody – perhaps the Angels – will give him another shot.
Tier 6: Disasters (5)
Jake McGee, Colorado Rockies
Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Estevez, Colorado Rockies
Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers
Here we’re left with the guys you wish you hadn’t owned. Honorable mention goes to Huston Street, Kevin Jepsen, Andrew Bailey, and Daniel Hudson.
It was curious when the Rockies traded Corey Dickerson for McGee. In the end, both players left fantasy owners with a sour taste. After McGee hit the disabled list, the Rockies rushed Estevez into the ninth. He may one day be an adequate reliever. It didn’t work out this year.
The top two candidates for Closer Bust of the Year are Rosenthal and Tolleson. Rosenthal was a festering wound. He punished his owners over a long period of time, but it always seemed like it might get better. Tolleson more closely resembled an amputation. The pain was unspeakable, but at least it ended quickly. Afterwards, you just needed a prosthesis (aka Jeanmar Gomez?).
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Injured
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins (shoulder – out for season)
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels (knee – out for season)
Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels (blood clot – out for season)
This was the best season for closer injuries in recent memory. A few guys like Davis have red flags for Tommy John surgery, but nobody was indefinitely lost to a bum elbow.
The Deposed
Drew Storen, Toronto Blue Jays
Jason Grilli, Toronto Blue Jays
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
J.J. Hoover, Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers
Kevin Jepsen, Free Agent (Twins)
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Jake McGee, Colorado Rockies
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
Jonathan Papelbon, Free Agent (Nationals)
Will Harris, Houston Astros
Steve Cishek, Seattle Mariners
Jeremy Jeffress, Texas Rangers
Tyler Clippard, New York Yankees
Carlos Estevez, Colorado Rockies
Jake Barrett, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Enrique Burgos, Arizona Diamondbacks
Fernando Salas, Los Angeles Angels
Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Fernando Rodney, Miami Marlins
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Looking through the list of deposed closers is always a fun exercise. Remember when Hoover was supposed to close for the Reds? And Jepsen in Minnesota...ho boy that was ugly.
