As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I’m here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I talked about not buying a week where the Cardinals allowed 13 steals. This past week, they caught one of two total would-be base stealers against them.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Juan Soto has become a speed demon, but more on that below.
Usually trusted sources of speed Trea Turner, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Francisco Lindor, and Corbin Carroll have all been much more aggressive on the bases in the second half, which is a welcome sight.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Back from his concussion, Oneil Cruz is working his way back up this leaderboard. That is, if he can at least reach first base safely.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths in the second half.
It’s time to start looking more specifically at trends from the second half to get a better sense of who’s no longer being successful as often or attempting to run as much.
Despite a .378 on-base percentage in the second half, Sal Frelick has been unwilling to push the envelope as a base stealer.
Christian Yelich’s days of high stolen bases totals may sadly be over.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
Here comes the weekly Agustín Ramírez PSA.
Once again, the Marlins led the league with 11 stolen bases allowed over the past week and Ramírez was behind the plate for eight of those in just four games played. He didn’t catch a single runner either.
The Mets especially picked on him with a four-steal game in a wild, 11-8 victory for the Marlins this past Saturday.
It’s becoming comical just how bad Ramírez is back there and how often teams are running against him.
His 6% caught stealing rate is hilariously low and by far the worst among catchers who’ve started at least 50 games. Drake Baldwin is next closest at 10%. Ramírez is also approaching Yainer Diaz and Shea Langeliers for the most total stolen bases allowed despite having caught nearly 300 fewer innings than each. Again, it’s comical
With 173 stolen bases allowed as a team, the Marlins are approaching historical significance as well.
The 2001 Red Sox let up the most stolen bases ever with 223 followed by the 1986 Phillies with 216 and 1988 Astros with 211. That Red Sox team is also the only since 1990 to allow more than 200 stolen bases across a full season.
After seeing 37 bases stolen against them across the last four weeks and just about that much time left in the season, the Marlins could join that infamous 200-steal list.
They play the Phillies and Nationals over the next week and you can be certain both of those teams will be running.
Speedy Juan Soto
It’s time to begin taking Juan Soto much, much more seriously as a base stealer.
He’s tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. as the leaders with 16 stolen bases since the All-Star break. Soto specifically has become a savant with his jumps. Well, either that or he simply knows that pitchers have no desire to hold him on.
Check out this easy bag earlier on Tuesday against the Tigers.
Juan Soto's 27th stolen base of the season pic.twitter.com/zbGFN5LAq7
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 2, 2025
Funny enough, nearly every attempt he’s had this year looks exactly like this. It’s amazing to see a superstar like Soto take the cockiness he’s always shown in the batter’s box to the basepaths.
He credits it all to more preparation though and consistent work with Mets’ first base coach Antoan Richardson. They reportedly work together daily to review pitchers’ tells and that’s what’s allowed Soto to get some of the biggest jumps in the league.
It will be fascinating to see where some of his stolen base projections line up ahead of drafts next spring.
The 27 steals to date have pushed him up to the fourth-most valuable hitter in 5x5 leagues according to the FanGraphs Player Rater, only behind Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, and Shohei Ohtani. That’s even with a slow start from Soto too, who had just nine home runs, seven steals, and a .231 batting average on June 1st.
Projecting him to steal even 15 bases could vault him ahead of some of the other mid-first round picks into the top few players selected. Also, this could be a one year bump that fades when pitchers are more aware of the game he’s playing. Either way, it will become a hotly debated and fascinating inflection point for his value.
