Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week I mentioned Luis Arraez as a sneaky stolen base streaming option and he swiped two! Also I highlights the Guardians facing the Marlins, but Miami put the clamps on the run game for the first time all season
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders
Who attempts seven stolen bases in a week? And gets caught in more than half them? José Caballero, that’s who. He must be feeling extra froggy with Anthony Volpe’s imminent return.
Old man Mike Trout feels back to form against all odds.
Luis Arraez stole more than 10 bases last season for the first time in his career and already has four this season. Getting near 15-20 bags would have a huge impact on his fantasy profile.
Finally, Shohei Ohtani is starting to run.
Full Season Stolen Base Leaders
Despite hitting below the Mendoza-line and having a barely .500 OPS, Nasim Nuñez leads the league in stolen bases. Hitting like that could make him lose his starting spot at any moment though.
Stolen Base Disappointments
I guess it’s good that Ronald Acuña Jr. has a green light? Efficiency like this should turn it yellow or even red soon.
Victor Scott II has gone from one of the most efficient base stealers in the league to one of the least so far.
It feels like Juan Soto is not going to get near 40 stolen bases again. Even winding up with 20 seems like it would be a miracle at this point.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The White Sox and Cubs allowed nine stolen bases over the past week, tied for most in the league.
There was no discernible trend from the White Sox: just a stolen base or two against them in each game.
Edgar Quero is not known for his defense behind the plate and recently promoted Drew Romo, who’s ripping the cover off the ball, saw five of the eight stolen with him catching despite only appearing in three games so far. Perhaps he becomes a target, but we’ll need to see him play more and who is pitching when these stolen bases occur.
Pay attention to Bryce Johnson (from the Padres) and Oswald Peraza to stream stolen bases against the White Sox this coming week.
As for the Cubs, six of the eight stolen bases against them last week came while Carson Kelly was catching. He’s often been tough to run on during his career, so this is a bit of an odd trend.
Let’s look to the pitchers then. Almost no starter is easier to run on than Edward Cabrera. This is a multi-year problem and it’s smart to target him for stolen bases.
Jameson Taillon also flashes here. Six bases have been stolen with him on the mound already when just seven were all of last season. In fact, he has the highest rate of stolen bases attempted for any pitcher who’s started at least three games this season so far.
Lastly, as Moises Ballesteros continues to mash, it’s likely the Cubs play him more frequently and he started his first game of the season at catcher this past Monday. That’s great as he seeks eligibility there in most fantasy leagues, but bad news if the Cubs are trying to limit stolen bases.
The Padres stole two bases against him in that game and one was by Ty France, which was just the fourth stolen base of his eight-year career. Expect the Cubs to pair Ballesteros with Matt Boyd, who pitched in that game, or Shota Imanaga. They’re two lefties who are good at controlling the run game.
Otherwise, look to the Reds starting on Monday to stream stolen bases. They’re one of the most aggressive base stealing teams in the league and are lined up to face Cabrera and Taillon. Matt McLain and TJ Friedl are on the waiver wire in some leagues. Dane Myers will be an option in deeper formats.
