New York Mets
2023 record: 75-87
Fourth place, NL East
Team ERA: 4.31 (19th in MLB)
Team OPS: .723 (18th in MLB)
What Went Right
Very little. This season was a massive failure for the Mets, though they still had some standout seasons from key contributors. Kodai Senga exceeded expectations in his first season stateside with a 2.98 ERA over 29 starts. While Senga might not win any awards, he should get some love in NL Rookie of the Year and NL Cy Young Award balloting. Pete Alonso socked 46 homers (his most since his rookie season in 2019) while Brandon Nimmo established new career-highs with 24 home runs and 68 RBI. Francisco Lindor shook off a slow start to finish with his first career 30-30 campaign. Adding in his defensive contributors, Lindor was tied for eighth among position players in fWAR (6.0). David Robertson stepped up admirably in the closer role before being traded to the Marlins and Tommy Pham was one of the team’s best players before he was dealt to the Diamondbacks. Francisco Alvarez also showed some flashes of being a core piece for this team moving forward. It’s weird to say that being a seller at the deadline is something that “went right,” but the Mets did well in picking up some quality prospects to beef up their farm system.
What Went Wrong
With an all-time record payroll, expectations were naturally through the roof for a team who won 101 games last season. However, this season was doomed from the jump, as Edwin Díaz tore the patella tendon in his right knee during a celebration in the World Baseball Classic. Offseason additions Justin Verlander and José Quintana both began the season on the injured list and Max Scherzer scuffled early in the year while also missing time due to injury and a suspension due to sticky stuff. Carlos Carrasco was flat-out awful and Tylor Megill and David Peterson largely struggled to pick up the slack in the rotation. Billy Eppler’s collection of optionable relievers was ineffective and overstretched. The Mets’ relief core posted a 4.48 ERA on the year, good enough for 23rd in MLB. Starling Marte wasn’t healthy and struggled even when he did play. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil saw a drop-off after last year’s batting title and Brett Baty took his lumps as a rookie. One year after winning NL Manager of the Year, Buck Showalter stepped down with the arrival of new president of baseball operations David Stearns. Days after Stearns was officially hired, general manager Billy Eppler resigned amid reports that he’s being investigated by MLB for his usage of the “phantom IL.”
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Fantasy Slants
- We knew there would be more stolen bases this season, but it was difficult to determine who would benefit and by how much. Francisco Lindor was a surprise in this area, as he ended up with a career-high 31 stolen bases after stealing 26 bases combined between 2021-22. Add that to his other counting stats (31 home runs, 98 RBI, and 108 runs scored) and Lindor was the No. 15 hitter in Yahoo leagues this year, even with his batting average lagging behind. For whatever reason, Lindor was a different player after the birth of his daughter in June, hitting .288 with 19 home runs and an .887 OPS over his final 90 games. Dad strength is real, people. Even if you temper expectations about another 30-steal campaign, Lindor is comfortably among the best options at the shortstop position.
- Pete Alonso’s season is a weird one to unpack, but let’s try. The 28-year-old slugger was off to a respectable start before being hit in the hand with a pitch on June 7. While he was initially expected to miss multiple weeks, he made it back just 11 days later and hit just .132 with a .549 OPS over his next 25 games. It’s safe to say he probably returned too soon. Alonso was more productive the rest of the way — 20 homers and an .875 OPS over his final 67 games — but success in the batting average department remained elusive all season long. Even accounting for an increase in strikeouts, his .246 xBA indicated that he deserved some better luck. Alonso is a prolific power hitter with some bounceback potential. The big question is what his future holds with the Mets after recently hiring Scott Boras as his agent.
- As noted in the “What Went Right” section, Kodai Senga was a bright spot in a bitterly disappointing season. In addition to posting a 2.99 ERA, he struck out 202 batters in 166 1/3 innings. That gave him the sixth-highest strikeout percentage among qualified starters, ahead of the likes of Jesus Luzardo, Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Wheeler. Senga’s “ghost fork” was one of the most devastating pitches in the game this year, as opposing batters hit just .110 with a .147 slugging percentage and a 59.5 percent whiff rate on the pitch. His control was better as the year went along, but that still held him back a bit in WHIP relative to his peers. This will ding him a bit in starting pitcher rankings going into 2024, but he’s earned consideration as a No. 2 starter on most mixed league staffs.
- After the Mets signed Omar Narváez last winter, it was clear that Francisco Alvarez was likely to open the 2023 season in the minors. That’s exactly what happened, but the plan quickly changed after Narváez went down with a severe calf strain in April. Alvarez experienced all the massive highs and lows one would expect from a 21-year-old catcher navigating a revolving cast of pitchers. Perhaps most critically to his long-term fantasy prospects, Alvarez showed that he can handle himself well behind the plate. As a hitter, he was incredibly streaky and often appeared too homer-happy. There’s work to do with his approach, but he has the sort of raw power you can dream about. We likely haven’t seen the best of him yet fantasy-wise, but taking a massive step forward next season is no guarantee.
- Edwin Díaz didn’t make it back from his knee surgery before the end of the season, but he was throwing bullpen sessions in September and all indications are that he should have a normal spring training in 2024. How high should expectations be after a year away? Remember, the last time we saw Díaz, he put together a historically dominant season with a 1.31 ERA and 118/18 K/BB ratio over 62 innings. If he’s looking like his normal dominant self in the spring, it’s not crazy to think he could be the No. 1 closer off the board in mixed fantasy leagues.
Key Free Agents
Carlos Carrasco (Omar Narvaez and Adam Ottavino have 2024 player options which they are expected to exercise)
Team Needs
New Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has a lot of work to do in a short amount of time. In addition to finding a new manager, he’ll need to put together a plan for how to attack the offseason for a team with obvious needs. Making matters more difficult is Billy Eppler’s surprising exit. Once the Mets declared themselves sellers at the trade deadline this summer, it appeared the club had shifted from a “win-now” team to one thinking more long-term, but clearly Steve Cohen will still spend money when it’s warranted.
The top priority this offseason should be addressing the starting rotation, as Kodai Senga and José Quintana are the only locks at this point. Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery will be available in free agency, but 25-year-old Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the name to watch here. Given Cohen’s deep pockets, Shohei Ohtani can’t be ignored as a possibility, but it would be an easier sell if he could actually pitch next season.
The Mets also need to retool their bullpen, as well as come up with a plan to fill left field and designated hitter needs. New York’s DH options in 2023 finished 24th in the majors with a .700 OPS this past season.
