With All-Star Weekend come and gone, the NBA and fantasy basketball managers will have a few days to recalibrate in advance of the stretch run. With that in mind, we’ve decided to ponder a few questions regarding what we’ve seen thus far and what we expect to see when play resumes. The first questions will focus on the biggest surprises and disappointments, with two of the former also being first-time All-Stars. As for the latter, injuries have impacted two of those selections.
Question: Who has been your biggest fantasy surprise thus far?
Zak Hanshew: Lauri Markkanen
This was tough because there have been so many unexpected performances this season, good and bad. The most surprising, however, has got to be Lauri Markkanen. He’s in the conversation for fantasy MVP thanks to a preseason ADP of 87.4 (per Hashtag Basketball) and a current per-game rank of 17. He’s also a shoo-in for the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award. Lauri balled out for Finland in last summer’s Eurobasket tournament, finishing top-10 in both points per game (27.9) and rebounds per game (8.1) while hitting 2.4 triples at a 40.5% clip.
He was on many analysts’ radars as a 2022-23 sleeper, and after his stellar summer performances, he was going regularly as an 8th-rounder in fantasy drafts. Despite that preseason hype, no one predicted he would be a mid-second-rounder at the break. He’s missed just six of 60 games this season and ranks 6th in total fantasy value. If you predicted this elite level of play from Markkanen, you should be out buying a lottery ticket rather than reading this article.
Noah Rubin: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Everyone knew SGA was good, but nobody expected him to be this good. After a third-round finish last season, he was drafted at an ADP of 44.9 in Yahoo leagues. He played 35 games in the 2020-21 season and 56 games last year. He has already played 53 games this year and has provided top-five per-game value. Only Jayson Tatum has played more games than SGA among players providing first-round value. With career-highs in points, steals, blocks, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage, Gilgeous-Alexander has taken the league by storm this season, when the narrative surrounding the team was the generational tanking performance they were going to put on. Instead, he has the Thunder knocking on the door of a playoff spot and fantasy managers in prime position for a championship.
Raphielle Johnson: Nicolas Claxton
There’s no shortage of players worthy of being tabbed as the biggest surprise in fantasy basketball to this point in the season. But among those currently within the top 50 in 9-cat, per-game value, just one had a Yahoo ADP of 125 or higher, according to Hashtag Basketball. That would be Claxton, who no longer had to worry about being passed in the rotation by veterans who lacked a ceiling on par with his. In 54 games, he’s averaging 12.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.7 steals, and a league-high 2.6 blocks in 29.5 minutes. Claxton also leads the league in field goal and effective field goal percentage (72.2%). Those numbers have been good for 3rd-round value in 9-cat formats. Generally speaking, Claxton’s managed to stay healthy, with the Nets and fantasy managers alike reaping the rewards.
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Question: Who has been your biggest fantasy disappointment thus far?
Hanshew: Zion Williamson
Decisions, decisions. I thought about featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo here for obvious reasons. He was drafted on average as the second or third player off the board, but he ranks 118 in per-game fantasy value thanks to some absolutely atrocious free throw shooting. If you drafted him in the first round, you were surely punting FT%, and in that build, he’s ranked 14th, so he’s far from a bust this season. I then shifted my attention to Minneapolis’ Rudy Gobert. Yes, Gobert is averaging five-year lows in points (13.3) and rebounds (11.6), and his 1.3 blocks per game are the lowest in any season in which he’s logged at least 20 minutes per game. His nagging groin injury has also forced him to sit out games periodically over the last month. But he’s still played 50 games and ranks as an early fifth-rounder. Not great, given his early third-round ADP, but not horrendous, either. Finally, we come to the man most deserving of “Most Disappointing Fantasy Player” - Zion Williamson.
After missing all of last season, Zion roared back onto the scene in 2022-23, and his strong play led New Orleans to the No. 1 seed in the West. He played just 29 of the team’s first 37 games and has been out for the last 22 with no timetable to return. He got into a groove in December and provided first and second-round value for a brief stretch. Fantasy managers showed little reluctance in drafting him, as evidenced by his early third-round ADP, and despite injury concerns, many were beginning to trust him again. That’s why he’s the most disappointing player. Just when we thought things were going to change and it would be smooth sailing down the stretch, Williamson is out indefinitely when it matters most. I suspect his ADP will be much lower in 2023 fantasy drafts.
Rubin: Trae Young
The addition of Dejounte Murray was expected to bring Trae’s numbers down slightly. His points are down slightly, but he’s actually been able to average a career-high in assists. Unfortunately, he’s having his worst shooting season since his rookie year, and he’s still averaging over four turnovers per game. Despite an ADP of 11.7, Trae has barely been inside the top 50 in per-game value for 9-cat leagues. His shooting percentage has been better as of late, as he has shot 45.2% over the last two months. However, the damage is already done to his value, and most teams that took Trae at the end of the first round don’t have their sights set on the fantasy playoffs.
Johnson: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Injuries have sidelined Giannis to 11 of Milwaukee’s 58 games this season, and now he’s dealing with a sprained right wrist that will be re-evaluated on Monday. Yet, despite being productive when available, he’s still far off from where fantasy managers expected him to be before the season began. Entering the season with a Yahoo ADP of 3.3, according to Hashtag Basketball, Antetokounmpo is ranked outside the top 100 in 9-cat, per-game value. He’s averaging a career-best 31.8 points per game to go along with 12.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 0.8 3-pointers in 33.1 minutes. And the field goal percentage remains solid, with Giannis making 53.8% of his attempts.
The issues are the foul line and turnovers. Giannis is shooting 64.6% from the charity stripe, the second-lowest mark of his career to date. As for the turnovers, he’s averaging a career-worst 4.0 per. While that isn’t an issue in 8-cat formats, it is in 9-cat. However, to put that turnover number into context, Giannis’ usage of 39.0 is four-plus points higher than his usage last season. Is placing him here a case of nit-picking? Probably. But you’ll be hard-pressed to find a fantasy manager who expected him to be ranked outside the top 100 at the All-Star break.
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