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If what draws you to college football is the on-field drama, heated rivalries and unprecedented upsets, then last Saturday’s rivalry games delivered in a big way.
Even for the casual observer, it’s hard to imagine somebody watching last weekend’s Michigan vs. Ohio State game, or Michigan State vs. Penn State game, and them not walking away a little bit more of a college football fan than they were when they first woke up.
If you’re a sucker for the symbolism of the sport, like myself, then the snowy field in East Lansing signaled more than just a rivalry game up north. It foreshadowed an exciting few weeks left in the college football season, which you will spend in your warmest winter weather attire, perhaps by a fire, with your favorite beverage in hand, enjoying weeks of bowl game action.
But before we get to bowl games, there are still scores to be settled within conferences.
With 11 conference championship games to be played this weekend, the fine folks at DraftKings were kind enough to give us an eight-game main slate that features the several exciting matchups.
Before we dive headfirst into bowl season, it’s time to once again pinpoint some value plays on this DraftKings main slate for conference championship week.
Jordon Brookshire, San Diego State QB
Game: San Diego State (-6) vs. Utah State - O/U 50
DraftKings Price: $5,900
The quarterbacks on this weekend’s slate create an interesting scenario.
The two highest priced quarterbacks on the slate, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett ($9,700) and Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman ($9,500) face off against one another in the ACC conference championship game this weekend. This makes it difficult to not only stack two quarterbacks within the same game, but also makes it tough to get excited over other quarterbacks and their matchups.
In theory, playing Bryce Young ($8,500) against Georgia could be a disastrous play. And Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder ($9,000) gets a decent matchup against Houston, but Houston’s defense is no slouch and we’ve seen Cincinnati’s offense struggle against lesser competition.
Of course, none of these quarterbacks can be viewed as value plays either, as I just named the four highest priced quarterbacks on the slate. But the true value plays have some tough matchups as well.
Then, I found what I hope to be a beacon of light in San Diego State quarterback Jordon Brookshire.
Brookshire has started four games for the Aztecs this season, and appeared in five total. In last week’s win against Boise State, Brookshire came on in relief of quarterback Lucas Johnson (leg) who left last Saturday’s contest with an injury and did not return.
Head coach Brady Hoke has already said that Johnson is unlikely to be ready for Saturday’s conference championship game against Utah State, which puts Brookshire back in the starter’s role, a position he had lost to Johnson earlier this season.
On the season Brookshire has gone for 21.7 or more fantasy points in three of his five games. In what was just more than a half of football last week, Brookshire posted a season high 22.3 fantasy points and threw for a season high 192 yards while completing 73.3% of his passes. He had completed just 48.2% of his passes prior to last Saturday’s game.
Despite his inefficiencies, Brookshire has enjoyed productive fantasy days thanks in part to his rushing ability.
He has rushed 37 times on the season for 138 yards, and has five rushing touchdowns in five games. Of the 16 quarterbacks on this weekend’s slate, Brookshire is tied for first with Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett in fantasy points per completion (1.6). Of course, his numbers are largely boosted by his rushing upside and touchdown rate, but they are nonetheless points he is scoring.
We don’t care how Brookshire scores, we just care that he does.
Last weekend against Boise State, Brookshire looked like a much better passer, and gets a home matchup against a Utah State defense that ranks 77th in success rate against (43.0%) and 97th in passing success rate against (44.0%).
The Aggies have also struggled in limiting explosive plays this season, allowing an Explosive Play Rate of 13.9%, which ranks 108th in the nation.
It is worth noting that as a team, San Diego State has struggled to move the ball through the air, averaging just 157.5 passing yards per game on the season (72nd). However, in their last five games, in which they went 4-1, the Aztecs have averaged 200.8 passing yards per game while throwing six touchdowns and three interceptions. They also three 34 or more times in three of those five games, despite averaging just 27.7 pass attempts per game on the year.
Brookshire’s $5,900 price point means he would need just 17.7 DraftKings points to triple his value on the slate. He’s certainly a bit of a calculated gamble, but we’ve seen Brookshire produce in fantasy before, and he just may prove to be a solid discount this weekend against Utah State.
Jevyon Ducker, Northern Illinois RB
Game: Northern Illinois (+3.5) vs. Kent State - O/U 74.5
DraftKings Price: $5,600
The beauty of college football is that coaches and teams don’t have any obligation to the media or public to disclose the status of a player. Whether it be injury, illness, or something else, a coach can be every bit as silent about a player as he can be open.
I jest. It’s not beautiful. It’s rather annoying, but if you keep your ear to the ground, you can gain significant edges over the market throughout the season.
Nevertheless, this situation of the unknown creates an interesting scenario for NIU running back Harrison Waylee, who hasn’t played since Week 5 after suffering an arm injury against Eastern Michigan. We know close to nothing about Waylee’s status outside of that.
You may also recall last week against Western Michigan, NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi was officially ruled out mere hours before the game with an injury that was never completely disclosed.
This makes starting NIU running back Jevyon Ducker feel risky, although given that Waylee hasn’t played since Week 5, and that he isn’t on the team’s depth chart at OurLads.com, we’ll approach this as if Ducker is playing.
it would be great if Ducker gets the start this weekend against Kent State. In Week 10 against the Golden Flashes, Ducker rushed 19 times for 101 yards and scored twice. He finished the day with 25.1 DraftKings points, more than quadrupling his $5,200 price tag on the week.
Since he began seeing the lion’s share of the touches in Week 7 against Bowling Green, Ducker has taken the reigns and never looked back.
He has rushed for 100+ yards in five of NIU’s last six games, and is averaging 18.95 fantasy points per game over that span. Comparing Ducker’s six game stretch to the yearly points per game averaged of the other running backs on the slate, Ducker’s 18.95 fantasy points per game ranks as the fourth-highest per game total behind Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford and Hassan Haskins.
Those three backs are the three highest-priced backs on this weekend’s main slate. Ducker is the 14th most expensive back on the slate. If you’re looking for a pricing inefficiency on the week, it may very well be that one.
We already know Ducker had a great day against Kent State a few weeks ago, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t enjoy another big game this Saturday.
NIU has been one of the worst team’s against the run all season, ranking 127th in both rushing success rate against (52.2%) and marginal rushing efficiency (2.5%). In regards to overall rushing yards allowed per game, the Huskies are surrendering the 11th most at 217.5.
Ducker struggled against Western Michigan last weekend, but that game can likely be thrown out. With Lombardi missing the game, NIU went with freshman quarterback Ethan Hampton. In his first career start, Hampton completed 4-of-10 passes for 23 yards.
That last sentence had no typos.
The fact that Ducker still managed to rush for over 100 yards in that game is more impressive than it is disappointing.
Deven Thompkins, Utah State WR
Game: San Diego State (-6) vs. Utah State - O/U 50
DraftKings Price: $7,400
Utah State senior wide receiver Deven Thompkins leads the nation in receiving yards (1,561), is ninth in receptions (89) and is third in total targets with 138. He has gone for 100+ yards in all but four games this season, and has scored in all but five games, totaling nine receiving touchdowns on the year.
Thompkins isn’t cheap this weekend. He’s the fourth most expensive receiver on the slate at $7,400 but is second in fantasy points per game on the year with 26.9. His matchup against San Diego State, despite their solid defense, could also make him a decent value relative to his higher-price counter parts.
In addition to his gaudy raw numbers, Thompkins has operated as the true alpha of Utah State’s passing attack.
He has been targeted on 33.2% of his routes this season, with the next closest receiver on his team being Brandon Bowling, who has been targeted on 24.7% of his routes. Thompkins is also averaging 11.0 yards per target, and has been an elite deep threat.
Looking at Pro Football Focus’ receiving depth metrics, Thompkins has been targeted on 48 deep passes (passes that traveled 20+ yards down field). This ranks first in the nation, and is 10 more the second-most targeted deep threat in the nation, Miami (OH) receiver Mac Hippenhammer. Thompkins has also caught 47.9% of his deep ball targets, which ranks 18th in the nation (min. 20 deep targets).
Thompkins’ deep receptions have accounted for 844 of his 1,561 receiving yards (54.1%), and he has only one registered drop on these 48 targets.
San Diego State’s defense is stout in a lot of ways. On the year, they rank 37th in passing success rate against (38.0%) and are 13th in the nation when it comes to success rate against on passing downs (25.0%).
With that being said, the Aztecs are still allowing the 52nd most passing yards per game in the nation (235.7) and have allowed 286.2 passing yards per game over the last five weeks, to go with nine touchdown passes.
This is likely due to their opponent’s facing a negative game script, as the Aztecs are 4-1 over that span, meaning that despite their defensive success overall, team’s are still throwing against them in hopes of pulling out a win. Team’s are averaging 38.7 pass attempts against San Diego State, which ranks as the third most behind Michigan State (46.3) and Hawaii (38.9).
Thompkins would triple his value on Saturday with a 22.2 point performance, which still falls 4.7 points below his yearly average. Utah State currently sits as six point underdogs to San Diego State, and could be the latest team to enjoy fantasy success against the Aztecs in a losing effort.
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