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2022 NFL Draft preseason QB rankings
25. Tanner Morgan | Minnesota | 6’2/215
24. Jack Coan | Notre Dame | 6'3/225
23. Anthony Russo | Michigan State | 6'3/245
22. Dorian Thompson-Robinson | UCLA | 6'1/197
21. Graham Mertz | Wisconsin | 6'3/215
20. Myles Brennan | LSU | 6'3/221
19. Dustin Crum | Kent State | 6'1/210
18. Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh | 6'3/219
17. Grayson McCall | Coastal Carolina | 6’3/200
16. D’Eriq King | Miami | 5’11/185
15. Emory Jones | Florida | 6’2/210
14. Dillon Gabriel | UCF | 6’0/186
13. Michael Penix Jr. | Indiana | 6’3/218
12. Jayden Daniels | Arizona State | 6’3/185
11. Brock Purdy | Iowa State | 6’1/212
10. Phil Jurkovec | Boston College | 6’5/226 | Scouting report
9. Desmond Ridder | Cincinnati | 6’4/215 | Scouting report
8. JT Daniels | Georgia | 6’3/210 | Scouting report
7. Tyler Shough | Texas Tech | 6’5/221 | Scouting report
6. Kedon Slovis | USC | 6’3/216 | Scouting report
5. Matt Corral | Ole Miss | 6’1/205 | Scouting report
4. Carson Strong | Nevada | 6’4/215 | Scouting report
3. Malik Willis | Liberty | 6’1/220 | (Below)
2. (Later this week)
1. (Next week)
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3. Malik Willis | Liberty | 6’1/220
Comp: Lamar Jackson
Auburn beat out Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech for Willis’ signature in the 2017 class. A three-star athlete, recruiters couldn’t decide if Willis’ best position was quarterback or wide receiver. ESPN’s scouting report of Willis out of the prep ranks called him an “imposing athlete capable of running around or through defenders,” a “long stride[r] capable of covering ground quickly” with “quick feet and decisive change-of-direction given his size.”
Willis redshirted in 2017 and served as Jarrett Stidham’s backup in 2018. He ran for 309 yards in sparse duty, but only attempted 11 passes. In the spring of 2019, Willis took on two more heralded recruits -- Joey Gatewood and Bo Nix -- in a three-man competition to replace Stidham. Willis went 9-for-10 in the spring game, but was listed QB3 on the depth chart behind Nix and Gatewood* when he announced in May 2019 that he intended to transfer.
*Nix has been up-and-down as Auburn’s starter -- mostly down. Gatewood is projected to be Kentucky’s backup quarterback this fall.
Auburn beat writers noted that HC Gus Malzahn went out of his way to compliment Willis in a way he usually doesn’t with outgoing transfers. “First of all, Malik is a wonderful human being,” Malzahn said. “We’ll be rooting for Malik to find the right situation for him. But like I said, he was a blessing to coach, and we’ll be rooting for him.”
Freshman Matthew Hill with an incredible over-the-shoulder touchdown catch from Malik Willis #WarDamnEagle pic.twitter.com/Qwk89FBrrM
— Power of Dixieland (@PwrofDixieland) April 13, 2019
A former SEC coach coming off a two-year hiatus out of the game pursued Willis heavily. That coach, Hugh Freeze, called Malzahn to ask if he thought Willis would be a good fit at Liberty, the tiny FBS newcomer in Lynchburg, Virginia that had given Freeze a second chance after his scandal-marred ouster from Ole Miss. “[Malzahn] couldn’t give him enough high marks on the type of person he is,” Freeze said. “I wanted to know that first … Gus’ recommendation on him really gave me the green light to go on him.”
Willis applied for an immediate eligibility waiver to play at Liberty in 2019, but was denied by the NCAA. After a year on the sidelines learning the playbook, Willis won the starting job in 2020. He was a revelation, leading the Flames to a 10-1 season with wins over Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and previously-undefeated top-10 Coastal Carolina in the bowl game. Liberty’s only loss was a one-point heartbreaker to NC State. Willis managed to impress anyway. NC State DC Tony Gibson, the man tasked with stopping him that day, says Willis reminds him of Patrick Mahomes.
Willis threw for 2,250 yards and a 20/6 TD/INT ratio on 64.2% completions and 8.5 YPA in 2020. An absolute menace outside of the pocket, he added 1,059 rushing yards on 8.7 YPC (with sacks omitted, counting as the NFL does), chipping in 14 rushing TD. Justin Fields was the only quarterback in the nation with more than 250 dropbacks who finished with a higher PFF rushing grade than Willis last year.
Liberty DT Ralfs Rusins, a fellow NFL Draft hopeful, calls him “an animal in the running game.” Willis is a preternatural scrambler. He very much evokes Lamar Jackson at Louisville in this phase, and I don’t toss that collation around lightly. Willis is so slippery and slick. Always makes the first man miss.
Early Malik Willis impressions are pretty mixed for me
— Ben Glassmire (@BenGlassmireNFL) July 20, 2021
+ Elite (not a word I use lightly) physical tools and clearly high upside
+ Playmaker with his legs
- Accuracy is a huge issue
- Mechanics are roughpic.twitter.com/S3ETPlxDql
When he decides to bail, Willis shoots out of the pocket in a blink. Stupid upfield acceleration from a stand-still and out of cuts. He will be knifing through bodies in the second level before defenders in man coverage realize he’s escaped. So very dangerous in those situations, at 4.4 top-speed with back-end defenders forced to peel off their assignments, chase him from angles, and corral him in space.
Willis may not quite have Jackson’s high-end speed, but he makes up for it by running with more power. Below, you’ll see the Jalen Hurts-ish muscle he runs with. The combination of acceleration, agility, power, and straight-line speed is special for the position. Makes defenders in the open field look silly -- breaks ankles, shrugs off defensive backs who don’t bring their lunch pales.
That's a quarterback that isn't afraid of contact. Malik Willis doesn't mess around.#libertyflames #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/XIry4xGggi
— Casey Sully (@CoachCaseySully) August 3, 2021
Willis can be a little haphazard with the ball, clutching it with one hand off to the side. Though he only threw six interceptions last year, he finished tied for No. 4 in PFF charted turnover-worthy plays anyway (tied for No. 109 in the nation in turnover-worthy play rate)… because of his fumbling problem. Willis fumbled 15 times in 2020 (in 10 games; four were lost), three more than any quarterback in the nation. It’s imperative that Willis keep two hands on the ball in the pocket and tuck it when running.
Another similarity with a young Lamar Jackson: Willis has an absolute whip for an arm. Ball shoots out of his hand. Upper-half is just as quick-twitch as the lower half. High-end velocity. Defense must respect his vertical game. Quincy Avery, a private quarterback instructor who has worked with Deshaun Watson, Josh Dobbs, Justin Fields and Trey Lance, told The Athletic that Willis has “the livest arm out of anybody. He has the strongest arm of anybody I have ever seen.”
Below is the most impressive play I saw from any 2022 quarterback prospect during my summer tape study -- a one-play encapsulation of Willis’ athleticism, arm strength and creativity. A full-spin, off-balance dime 50 yards downfield on the road against Virginia Tech.
Willis throws outs and back shoulders with plus NFL arm strength, velocity and timing. Steals collegiate corners lunch money with quick back-shoulder sideline throws in particular, drilling it to the outside shoulder before his receiver has turned or cut. Willis has enough juice in his arm to throw across his body on the run and get the ball to his target quick enough to not put the ball in harm’s way. He attempts throws that others wouldn’t, forcing defenders to cover every inch of the field at all times.
Liberty QB Malik Willis has a big-time arm pic.twitter.com/9zAw0O2ipA
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) May 10, 2021
Of quarterbacks with at least 40 deep-ball (20+ yards) attempts last year, Willis ranked No. 15 in PFF adjusted accuracy, No. 18 in throwing grade and No. 10 in big-time throws. Liberty’s offense may be full of simple-reads, but the throws it asks of its quarterback are anything but. Willis finished tied for No. 3 in the FBS last year in average depth of target.
Gus Malzahn may still be at Auburn had he gone with Willis as starter over Bo Nix. Of Willis’ 2020 star-turn, Malzahn said: “It doesn’t surprise me at all that he’s doing as well as he’s doing. I think that offense is really a perfect fit for him.” He’s right. And that cuts both ways.
Liberty’s offense is gimmicky, an up-tempo scheme designed to put specific defenders into no-win situations. The Flames point the ball to the side of the field they have a numbers advantage, and they try to put a “key” defender into conflict by giving him a task that forces a decision that will open up another possibility -- for instance, a DE on a read-option crashing down to open up the edge for Willis, or a single-high safety choosing which half of the field he’ll give help to off an RPO.
Liberty’s offense doesn’t feature many drop-back concepts. To this point, Willis is far better driving this Ferrari at high speeds -- the RPO game at hyper tempo -- than he is in traditional concepts.
More creator than facilitator, Willis can make a jaw-dropping play out of structure and then the very next play throw a simple crosser behind his man while standing stationary in the pocket. When Willis’ legs aren’t facilitating throwing opportunities by opening up space, he’s forced to beat coverage with his eyes and accuracy, and those areas of his game to this point lag far behind his athleticism and arm strength.
Willis’ placement needs to improve if he’s going to become an NFL star. Among my top-10 preseason 2022 quarterbacks, only Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec threw a lower percentage of catchable passes than Willis last year. There are completed Willis throws on tape where he made it harder for his receiver than was necessary and killed a YAC opportunity.
Elusive in Open Field ✅
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) June 15, 2021
Sudden Athlete ✅
Escapability ✅
QB Malik Willis 👀 pic.twitter.com/KLcGJMfrcy
My former colleague Derek Klassen charted four of Willis’ 2020 games earlier this summer -- Western Kentucky, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State*. In that sample, Willis was accurate on only 73.68% of his throws in the 1-5 yard area. In last year’s quarterback class, only two quarterbacks -- Jamie Newman and Kyle Trask -- finished below even 80% in Klassen’s charting. Willis’ 68.48% overall adjusted accuracy in the four games Klassen charted would have been the worst in the 2021 class, slightly behind current street free agent Jamie Newman.
*It should be noted: These were four of Willis’ most difficult games. Klassen’s sample included all three of Liberty’s Power 5 opponents, plus a Western Kentucky team that finished top-10 nationally last year in pass defense.
Another area that concerns me is Willis’ ability to solve complex problems under duress. No sugarcoating it: He was horrible under pressure last season, posting a dreadful 34.1 PFF passing grade on 109 dropbacks. Only two FBS quarterbacks with 100-or-more pressured dropbacks had a lower PFF passing grade, and they won’t come within a mile of an NFL roster: Duke’s Chase Brice and Vanderbilt’s Ken “Easter” Seals.
Derek Klassen’s charting found the same thing; Willis’ four-game sample of accuracy under pressure would have been lowest in last year’s quarterback class. Klassen tossed out a fair selection-bias caveat: “Willis is such a phenomenal athlete that it’s fair to assume he is just taking off under pressure whenever possible, leaving him to only throw under pressure when absolutely, positively forced to do so.”
His assumption was correct. Per PFF, Willis led the nation with 37 scrambles under pressure last year. The next-closest, Notre Dame’s Ian Book, had 29 -- on 40 more pressured dropbacks. Of the 15 quarterbacks who scrambled the most under pressure last year, Willis ranked No. 5 in PFF run grade, behind Bo Nix, Matt Corral, Malik Cunningham and Brock Purdy. In short: Willis’ legs aren’t adding enough value in these situations to mitigate the cratering of his passing efficiency.
Willis’ sloppy mechanics hurt him when he’s attempting passes in close quarters. His footwork, in general, is sloppy. You’ll see false steps, crossing of the feet, and heel clicks. Doesn’t always throw with a base. When he does throw with both feet planted, his accuracy and velocity tend to play up.
That’s good news: It’s anecdotal proof that Willis’ accuracy and placement will improve when he learns to consistently throw with a base, and when he finds a repeatable motion. Too often, he’s winging it all-arm, with extra elbow action that bites him when it dips.
Willis’ arm and legs both tend to play down when he’s asked to drop back and survey. This is when you tend to see him forcing the ball -- ever the aggressor -- into coverage, hurrying reads and/or sailing balls. Willis can sometimes appear out-of-sync with his teammates, speeding through the play in fast-forward while everyone else moves at regular speed.
Willis’ lack of presence in the pocket led to unnecessary sacks, hurried throws, and more throws under duress. Flames HC Hugh Freeze deemed it a “point of emphasis” this offseason for Willis to learn to sync his drop with the OL’s protection depth so things don’t “[get] short-circuited.” Freeze saw what I saw.
Willis and the Liberty coaching staff are also attune to Willis’ mechanical issues and have been working on it since Willis arrived on campus. Per The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman:
On the flip side, Willis is extremely comfortable throwing off-platform and doesn’t need his feet set to uncork a deep ball or deliver a frozen rope. He is the most gifted athlete in this quarterback class, and in my opinion the most dangerous scrambling quarterback we’ve seen since Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray (even more dangerous than Jalen Hurts). Willis possesses a bazooka for an arm, easy top-3 arm strength in the class (I’d put him behind only Nevada’s Carson Strong).
Willis has the highest upside of any 2022-eligible quarterback. But he’s no sure bet to reach it. He’s going to be a boom-or-bust proposition in April if he declares either way, but Willis could greatly mitigate his risk profile for NFL teams by improving his mechanics and pocket game (doable), improving his accuracy (likely a natural byproduct), tucking the ball when running (theoretically very doable), and improving under pressure (we’ve seen it in flashes, need it consistently).
If he improves in those areas in his second year as a starter, watch out.
Catch up on scouting report’s of Thor’s preseason 2022 QB8-10 (JT Daniels, Desmond Ridder and Phil Jurkovec) here, QB6-7 (Kedon Slovis and Tyler Shough) here, QB5 Matt Corral here, and QB4 Carson Strong here.
