Post-hype sleepers are one of the best value quarries to mine in fantasy drafts. A post-hype sleeper is a player who was a highly valued fantasy asset the previous season who, for whatever reason, fell flatter than True Detective season two. Some of the time the failure comes down to injury. Other times the player was just in a bad situation. Either way, these players had the talent to be considered early-round picks just one year ago, but recency bias causes them to be severely undervalued in drafts.
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Peyton Manning – 2014 QB1 – 2015 QB3
Peyton Manning is not a sleeper in that he is still the third quarterback off the board on average, but his three-round fall in ADP is steeper because of where it comes in the draft. The difference between Round 1 and Round 4 is larger than the difference between Round 4 and Round 7 and much larger than the difference between Round 7 and Round 10. In running back value, Manning’s ADP has fallen from the equivalent of RB4 last season to RB20 this year.
Most of the drop can be attributed to Manning’s disastrous finish to 2014. Manning averaged 9.8 fantasy points, failed to reach double-digit points twice and did not surpass 15 fantasy points in any of the last five games. For context, Manning averaged 23.6 points through the first 11 games of the season, which would have been good enough to make him the top quarterback in per-game scoring last year.
The good news is most of that catastrophic falloff can be attributed to a quad tear he suffered against San Diego, though it is also important to point out Manning put up his worst performance of the year the week before against Buffalo’s stout defense. Now healthy and better managed by the new coaching staff, Manning is less likely to hit a late-season wall like he did one year ago. Though he will lose some attempts in Gary Kubiak’s offense, Manning could have lost 1.6 points per game off his pre-falloff average and still finished as the top quarterback. He is being undervalued when he falls below Russell Wilson, Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger in drafts.
Jay Cutler – 2014 QB9 – 2015 QB20
Jay Cutler’s ADP is among the most confusing on the draft board. Though his real-life season could have gone considerably better, Cutler secretly performed reasonably well as a fantasy quarterback last season. He averaged over 250 yards and almost two touchdowns a game on his way to finishing as the No. 14 per-game scorer. Not great, but still better than Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, and Matthew Stafford, who are all going ahead of him.
More importantly, his 16.6 per-game average was just 1.2 points behind Tony Romo in seventh place. All of the quarterbacks from Romo at QB7 to Flacco at QB16 were so closely packed there was scarcely a difference between them, making Cutler’s precipitous ADP drop even more peculiar.
If anything, Cutler has an opportunity to improve on last year’s numbers. Adam Gase was never shy about throwing the ball around in Denver, and Peyton Manning bettered his career averages in touchdown percentage, interception percentage and yards per attempt in each of his two years under Gase in Denver. Cutler is obviously not Manning, but if Gase can coax a little improvement out of him on a per attempt basis, Chicago still has the passing game weapons for Cutler to do damage.
Doug Martin – 2014 RB10 – 2015 RB34
Doug Martin may be the poster child for post-hype sleepers. The second best fantasy back as a rookie in 2012, Martin was held to 11.4 PPR points a game in an injury shorted sophomore season. Despite the disappointing year, Martin still snuck into the second round of fantasy drafts last August. That is when it completely went off the rails. Martin ended up missing five games and averaged just 7.3 PPR points a contest, well below his 19.5 average in 2012. With the taste of last season still on our collective breaths, Martin’s ADP has fallen all the way to RB34 this season.
That fall could be warranted. Though Jameis Winston has a lot more upside than either of the Bucs’ quarterbacks in 2014, he is a rookie who will certainly have ups and downs. As a result, the offense should have those ups and downs as well. The offensive line is also a real question mark in Tampa Bay, one that got considerably bigger when Demar Dotson sprained his MCL in the preseason opener. Finally, the Bucs defense was a bottom-10 unit last season which will struggle to become anything more than a middling unit this year. Playing from behind limits the upside of running backs, especially backs with passing-game specialists like Charles Sims behind them on the depth chart.
All of that said, Martin still averaged 13.5 touches a game last year despite not being the clear lead back in several contests. Now clearly on top of the depth chart, Martin is a player with proven upside who could see more than 15 touches a game in an offense that may take a step forward. This is better than most of the running backs around Martin’s ADP can say.
Reggie Bush – 2014 RB16 – 2015 RB42
Reggie Bush’s 2014 campaign was forgettable. He averaged just 9.7 PPR points and 10.5 touches over 11 games after averaging 17.1 PPR points and 19.8 touches the year before. Bush also saw his touchdown total drop to two after hitting pay dirt 15 times total the previous two seasons. After a disappointing, injury-filled season that saw him cut at its conclusion, there is rightfully some concern the 30-year-old Bush is reaching the end.
That concern is mitigated by two factors. The most notable of which is the prime fantasy situation Bush finds himself in this year. A passing-game specialist who has averaged four receptions a game over his career, Bush has joined a team which is in utter turmoil. The amount of defensive talent which has left San Francisco this offseason is almost too staggering to believe, and that lost talent will almost certainly result in a larger percentage of offensive plays run while trailing. Bush should dominate the touches in those situations, even with Carlos Hyde “ahead” of him on the depth chart.
The second mitigating factor is Bush’s very reasonable draft price. A mid-forties running back even in PPR leagues, Bush needs to average around 10 PPR points a game to return value. Considering his per-game catch totals throughout his career and the pass-heavy game script the 49ers will likely find themselves in this season, that floor will not be difficult for Bush to reach, and he has the upside for more.
Calvin Johnson – 2014 WR1 – 2015 WR6
Calvin Johnson’s season was not a disappointment when he was healthy. When playing as something more than a decoy, Johnson averaged 20.2 PPR points a game, which would have been fourth best among wide receivers last year. The issue was Johnson was only healthy in 11 games. Matched with the two contests he missed in 2013 and the fact Johnson will turn 30 early in the season, there is some concern Johnson has reached the decline phase of his career.
The numbers do show Johnson may be starting to decline. He posted his lowest yards per route run since 2010 -- though he still finished in the top ten of qualifying receivers -- and had just three plays of more than 30 yards, which is the lowest of his career. Johnson was still a great weapon inside the red zone, however, converting one-third of his red-zone targets into touchdowns, and his peak was so high he has a long way to decline before leaving the upper echelons of the wide receiver position.
Johnson has missed five games over the last two years and been hobbled in others, but when playing he has remained a fantasy giant. The weekly nature of fantasy football and the depth of the wide receiver position makes it easy to take a shot on a player who could finish the season with the top overall score at the position, especially if that shot comes in the second round.
Brandon Marshall – 2014 WR6 – 2015 WR25
I almost titled this article Forgetting Brandon Marshall because that is exactly what fantasy owners are doing this season. After a season in which Marshall missed three contests and caught fewer passes per game than in any season since his rookie year, fantasy owners are ready to throw in the towel on the 31-year-old “former” playmaker. That might not be a good idea.
The biggest reason overlooking Marshall may be a mistake is Chan Gailey, the new offensive coordinator of Marshall’s new team the New York Jets. A sharp offensive mind, Gailey has a history of funneling targets to his top receivers. Dwayne Bowe saw 157 targets in Gailey’s one year as offensive coordinator in Kansas City, and Stevie Johnson averaged 141 targets the three years Gailey spent in Buffalo, with new Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the passes no less.
It is true Stevie Johnson did not have a supporting receiver as talented as Eric Decker, but Bowe saw that huge workload despite the presence of Tony Gonzalez, who garnered 155 targets the same season. Marshall is not going to get the 192 targets he racked up in 2012, but he could touch the 140 mark once again and showed last season he still knows how to find the end zone. 80 receptions, 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns is a good projection for Marshall, making him a solid WR2 at a WR3 price.
Kyle Rudolph – 2014 TE7 – 2015 TE18
Kyle Rudolph’s ADP collapse is completely understandable. He has played 17 games total over the last two seasons and has just two full seasons of football in the past six dating back to college. Last season he missed time with an abdominal tear, a sprained MCL and a sprained ankle. Next to Rudolph, the guy from Operation looks like a picture of health.
Rudolph has also not been a stellar fantasy asset when he is able to get on the field. His 8.14 PPR point per game average over the last two years is only good enough to make him a fringe TE2, and he has just five games with double-digit PPR points over that span. But if he is always hurt and not that good when healthy, what is there to like?
The first thing to like is the price. With the best tight end strategy this season being Gronk or stream, Rudolph is a very low-priced option who can likely be found on the waiver wire prior to Week 1. More importantly, Rudolph has legit double-digit touchdown upside in an ascending offense with an ascending quarterback. If he can stay on the field, he has a good shot to set career highs in receptions and yards. If he cannot stay healthy, he did not cost anything. It is an easy decision to make.
