One of the keys to a successful fantasy season is taking what we saw in the previous season and applying it to the next. As I continue to pore over data from the 2025 season, I came across distance traveled per route run (DTRR), a metric that measures the average number of yards a player runs per route. It was a number that immediately caught my attention, particularly when it came to Colts receiver Alec Pierce, who was on the cusp of a massive payday, and ranked fourth among all receivers (min. 300 routes run) in DTRR (28.0) last season while also ranking 51st of 77 receivers in targets per route run (0.177 TPRR).
We’ll get to Pierce later, but he is the classic example of a prototypical deep threat who spends ample time running downfield while consistently yielding a TPRR that is far from elite. He’ll also likely generate a lot of hype next season due to his 2025 breakout and the Colts’ trade of Michael Pittman to the Steelers at the start of the new league year.
Perhaps the hype Pierce receives will prove justified, and fantasy managers who take a chance on him will be happy they did so. However, now also feels like a good time to remind people what players with Pierce’s statistical profile tend to provide.
I took a look at some players with similar DTRR and TPRR to Pierce over the last two seasons, filtering for:
- Min. 300 routes run
- DTRR ≥ 25.0
- TPRR ≤ 0.200
What we were left with was a list of 189 receivers who averaged 8.08 PPR points per game, 4.7 targets per game, and 0.162 TPRR. When it comes to fantasy production, Davante Adams’ 15.42 PPR/gm led the group, with Brandin Cooks’ 15.39 PPR/gm coming in a close second. However, both players were difficult to trust in standard start/sit leagues, as Adams and Cooks finished as a WR3 or worse in 56 percent of the games they appeared in, though they also averaged 7.6 and 7.3 targets/gm, respectively.
The full list of players who met the above criteria for the 2025 season is below, but in this article we will only touch on players currently going in the first 12 rounds of drafts, using ADP from Underdog’s best ball contests. While best ball ADP will differ from traditional redraft leagues, it’s a good early look at how drafters could value certain players in the months ahead.
| Player | DTRR | TPRR | ADP |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 28.6 | 0.195 | 239.1 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 28.2 | 0.124 | 164.8 |
| Chimere Dike | 28.0 | 0.180 | 183.1 |
| Alec Pierce | 27.8 | 0.177 | 71.1 |
| D.J. Moore | 27.7 | 0.153 | 64.2 |
| Isaiah Bond | 27.5 | 0.128 | 239.0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 26.6 | 0.172 | 96.6 |
| Jameson Williams | 26.3 | 0.171 | 44.8 |
| Xavier Worthy | 26.3 | 0.174 | 105.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 26.2 | 0.190 | 238.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 25.9 | 0.179 | 90.1 |
| Tre Tucker | 25.4 | 0.159 | 191.9 |
| Xavier Legette | 25.4 | 0.161 | 239.4 |
| Marquise Brown | 25.4 | 0.188 | 233.9 |
| Rashod Bateman | 25.3 | 0.119 | 234.4 |
| Jalen Nailor | 25.0 | 0.128 | 185.1 |
Jameson Williams, Lions (44.8 ADP)
When it comes to receivers on this list who break the stereotype that’s often associated with deep threats, Jameson Williams justifiably reigns supreme. The fourth-year speedster topped 1,000 yards for the second-consecutive season in 2025 and is one of 25 receivers since 2000 to have multiple 1,000-plus yard seasons while seeing 105 or fewer targets in both seasons.
Williams finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in 53 percent of his games last season and turned in seven top-12 performances while finishing 27th among all receivers in total targets (102). Williams, along with Quentin Johnston, led all of the above receivers with 6.0 targets/gm, but was also targeted seven or more times in nine games.
His success post Ben Johnson is a good sign for Williams’ fantasy outlook in 2026. While recent history suggests receivers with his profile are tough to trust, back-to-back years of high-end production suggest Williams can continue to buck the trend next season.
D.J. Moore, Bills (64.2 ADP)
The Bills gave up a 2026 second-round pick in exchange for D.J. Moore and a 2026 fifth-round pick. It felt like a steep price to pay for the soon-to-be 29-year-old vet, but Moore is expected to step in and serve as the Bills’ No. 1 receiver next season, while also reuniting with head coach Joe Brady, who coached Moore in Carolina from 2020 to 2021. Two of Moore’s four 1,000-yard seasons came under Brady, so there’s some hope the veteran receiver will bounce back after a down year in Chicago, in which he posted career lows in TPRR (0.153), receptions (50), and receiving yards (682).
In 27 career games with Brady as the primary play-caller, Moore has averaged 8.5 targets/gm and a 0.238 TPRR, a notable difference from the 5.0 targets/gm and 0.153 TPRR he saw last season. He also averaged a career-low 10.1 PPR/gm.
Moore’s role in Buffalo won’t be the same as it was in Chicago. While I still think his ADP makes him a risky proposition in 2026, it would be surprising to see him on this list this time next year.
Alec Pierce, Colts (71.1 ADP)
There are things we cannot deny when it comes to Alec Pierce‘s 2025 season. The fourth-year receiver finished with career-highs in targets (84), receptions (47), and receiving yards (1,003), and also led all receivers in YPR (21.3) for the second-consecutive season. The 12.2 PPR/gm Pierce averaged also set a new career-high and was good for WR27 on the season.
Pierce posted a 19-418-5 line on 32 targets over the final seven weeks of the season and was briefly the most coveted free-agent receiver on the market before opting to re-up with the Colts on a four-year, $114 million contract. After never finishing higher than third on the Colts in targets in his four seasons, and as the WR53 or lower in fantasy PPG from 2022 to 2024, Pierce will now presumably have a chance to serve as the team’s No. 1 receiver in 2026, which could either ruin fantasy rosters or elevate them to new heights.
It’s possible that some of Pierce’s limited target totals were due to playing his entire career with Michael Pittman, who has totaled 111 or more targets in every season since 2021. That said, it should also come as no surprise that Pierce, who posted a 0.196 TPRR during his college career, hasn’t commanded many targets at the pro level. Even more concerning, perhaps, is that his “Open Score” of 33 since 2022, per ESPN Analytics, ranks 105th of 113 receivers.
The likelihood of Daniel Jones (Achilles) also being sidelined to start the season throws another wrench into Pierce’s fantasy stock, which sits at an all-time high at the time this is being written.
Pierce’s career TPRR of 0.147 ranks 83rd of 84 receivers (min. 200 targets) since 2016, with Jahan Dotson (0.117 TPRR) being the worst of an underwhelming list. For all the success he had last season, Pierce still finished as a WR3 or worse in 53 percent of his games, and never finished higher than WR14 in games with Jones under center.
Jordan Addison, Vikings (90.1 ADP)
Jordan Addison‘s 2023 rookie campaign was boosted by a 10-touchdown season. That line (70-911-10) was nearly replicated in 2024 (63-875-9), but as was the case for all Vikings players last season, things really bottomed out in 2025.
Even with high-end touchdown production, Addison’s first-two seasons always suggested a disastrous year was in the cards. Prior to last year, Addison finished as a top-24 PPR receiver or better in just 38 percent of the 32 games he appeared in while also posting a pedestrian 0.186 TPRR and averaging 6.5 targets/gm.
As if life playing opposite Justin Jefferson wasn’t tough enough, the disastrous trio of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer didn’t do anything to help Addison, who was on a 17-game pace to finish the season with 51-740-4 on 95 targets.
While the arrival of Kyler Murray will theoretically raise the ceiling of all Vikings pass-catchers in 2026, there’s no guarantee Addison, who was already more unreliable than not, will return to whatever “good” version of himself we saw in previous seasons. His best chance at turning out a decent season could depend on the health of Jefferson. In seven games without Jefferson, Addison has averaged 7.7 targets/gm and 14.7 PPR/gm.
Quentin Johnston, Chargers (96.6 ADP)
Quentin Johnston missed two games due to injury last season and was sidelined in the Week 18 season finale, so it’s possible the third-year receiver could have flirted with a 1,000-yard campaign instead of the 51-735-8 line he finished with. As previously mentioned, Johnston and Jameson Williams both led the above receivers with 6.0 targets/gm last season, which is a mark Johnston has now cleared in back-to-back seasons after averaging 3.9 targets per game as a rookie.
The 6-foot-3, 208-pound speedster could make for an interesting later-round option in Mike McDaniel’s offense next season, and finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in 50 percent of his games played last season. Since 2024, Johnston has finished as a top-24 receiver in just 73 percent of his games, making him a true boom-or-bust player despite the much-improved usage compared to his rookie campaign.
Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (105.2 ADP)
At the 2024 NFL Draft, Xavier Worthy made the egregious mistake of running a 4.21 40-yard dash, which set him on a path to join a long list of NFL flameouts. The fact that he is 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds probably isn’t doing Worthy any favors either, as the list of receivers below six feet and at/below 170 pounds since 2010 is largely underwhelming.
Since being drafted by the Chiefs in 2024, Worthy has averaged a 26.3 DTRR, posting a career receiving line of 101-1170-7 on 171 targets. He’s been targeted deep (20-plus air yards) 34 times and converted only seven of those targets into receptions, which is good for the fifth-lowest catch rate (20.6 percent) among receivers who have seen at least 10 deep targets over that span.
Worthy has struggled out of the gate to return value for both the Chiefs and his fantasy managers, and faces an uncertain start to the 2026 season with Patrick Mahomes (ACL) at risk of missing the first few weeks. If we later learn that Mahomes could open the season on injured reserve, Worthy’s fantasy value could take a plunge, but it’s fair to question how high we should be on a receiver entering his third season after a disappointing start that has netted him just six top-24 PPR finishes in 31 career games.
Note: All fantasy numbers are based on half-PPR scoring. ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy. Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com.
