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Price Check: Best Ball ADP for May Drafts

Darren Waller

Darren Waller

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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Since the sun set on the 2021 NFL season, you’ve spent the last three months doing all you can to prepare for the next fantasy season. You’ve grinded the tape. You’ve reviewed the analytics. You’ve even adjusted the ranks after finding out your favorite player pours the milk first, followed by the cereal. The horror.

The 2022 NFL season is quickly approaching, and you’ve never felt more prepared than you do now.

So what’s next?

If there’s one thing we know about fantasy, it’s that player ADP is a living, breathing organism. Ever-changing with the latest injury, training camp rumor or free agent signing, player ADP can shift our approach to drafting at any moment.

In hopes of keeping up with the ADP trends, I will be publishing a monthly article covering shifts in ADP and which players I’m drafting at their current price.

This article will focus largely on Underdog Fantasy ADP and strategy (half-PPR scoring), but will also include current FFPC ADP (PPR scoring w/ TE premium) and some analysis.

NOTE: Advanced stats and metrics courtesy of, and RotoViz.

Early Round Buys

Davante Adams (LVR)

Underdog ADP: 9.7
FFPC ADP: 13.1

It’s understandable that drafters would be hesitant to buy in on Davante Adams following his departure from Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers. However, don’t overthink what Adams has brought to the table over the last several years.

Since 2016, Adams ranks second amongst receivers in target share (28%), first in receiving yards (7,192) and first in total touchdowns (69). Over that span, he has finished twice as the WR1 in points per game and has been top-six in points per game in four of those last six seasons.

Last season, the Raiders ranked ninth in early-down pass rate (54.5%) and were seventh in pass attempts per game (36.9). Their EPA per drop back of 0.169 was also good for seventh-best.

Derek Carr was solid as a passer last season (4804-23-14), ranking third in expected completion percentage (69%). Already in the top-10 last season in numbers that prove conducive for wide receiver fantasy production, the Raiders could take yet another step forward with Adams’ arrival this season.

Stefon Diggs (BUF)

Underdog ADP: 11.9
FFPC ADP: 15.0

Stefon Diggs was pulling a late first-round ADP in 2021 after going for 127-1535-8 in 2020. Often being drafted as a top-3 receiver on Underdog, Diggs finished as the WR10 in points per game (13.46) -- resulting in a rather disappointing fantasy finish.

During the fantasy season, Diggs had just four top-12 finishes in half-PPR leagues and finished outside the top-24 on six occasions.

Despite Diggs feeling massively underwhelming at times, Buffalo remains an offense we should be high on. Ever the darlings of the analytics community, the Bills have led a high-powered passing attack for two consecutive seasons.

In 2021, Buffalo ranked first in early-down pass frequency at 64.3% and was fifth in pass attempts per game at 38.5. Diggs remained the beneficiary of Buffalo’s aggressive style of play, averaging 9.6 targets per game and finished with the fifth-most targets of any receiver (164). Inaccurate targets tell a decent part of the story of Diggs’ underwhelming 2021. After seeing one of the highest catchable target rates of the 2020 season (83%), he saw that number dip to one of the worst in the league (72%) last season.

Bills Pass Rate Over Expected 2021

Bills Pass Rate Over Expected 2021

Led by perhaps the league’s best offensive weapon in quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills continue to find ways to strengthen their passing attack. They did so this offseason with the signing of slot receiver Jamison Crowder to a one-year contract and the selection of satellite back James Cook with the 63rd overall pick in the draft.

Over the last two seasons, Allen has turned in volume of historical proportions at the quarterback position. He is one of just five quarterbacks to have ever rushed 100 times in a season, pass 400 times in a season and throw for 30-plus touchdowns.

Josh Allen Historical Volume

Josh Allen Historical Volume

He’s the only quarterback in league history to have 100-plus carries, 500-plus pass attempts and 30-plus passing touchdowns in a single season.

Despite the departure of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, Buffalo should remain an aggressive passing team in 2022. If the last two seasons are any indication, similar volume should lead to a fantasy rebound for Diggs.

Darren Waller (LVR)

Underdog ADP: 40.1
FFPC ADP: 25.3

Last season, Waller saw an Underdog ADP of 22.2 (TE2) after a year in which he went for 107-1195-9 and finished as the TE2 in points per game (14.3).

Touchdown regression hit Waller in a big way last season. He converted just 2.2% of his targets to scores compared to the 6.2% TD rate he enjoyed in 2020. Waller would miss six games due to injury, which only further impacted his fantasy value, but his usage reflected that of a top-tier tight end.

Despite his six-game absence, Waller finished 2021 ranking fifth amongst TEs in air yards (918) and second in target share (24%). On a per-game basis, only Baltimore’s Mark Andrews averaged more air yards per game (92.8) than Waller (83.5).

The arrival of Adams will lead to some targets being vultured from Waller, but with a fourth-round ADP on Underdog, he has a chance to turn into a value in an explosive offense.

Waller’s FFPC ADP marks only a slight drop from his 22.8 from last season. Given the TE premium format (1.5 PPR), he brings added value to a roster, but it’s interesting drafters’ opinions on him have remained largely unchanged. He was the TE5 in points per game in FFPC leagues last season (15.58) and ranked 31st overall in points per game (min. 8 games) when active. There’s a chance that Waller remains a major edge in TE premium formats.

Mid-Round Buys

Devin Singletary (BUF)

Underdog ADP: 103.7
FFPC ADP: 101.3

Those investing rookie first-round draft picks into James Cook this offseason may not love to hear this, but there’s a strong possibility that Devin Singletary remains the team’s early-down grinder in 2022.

Singletary, who is currently going just six picks ahead of Cook on Underdog right now, rushed for 188-870-7 last season but was leaned on heavily late.

Over the last four games, Singletary saw significant work as Buffalo’s lead back. He racked up 76 carries for 323 yards and five touchdowns while also catching eight passes for 73 yards and another score. Singletary’s snap share of 60% ranked 12th amongst running backs while his 41% rushing share drastically outpaced that of backup Zack Moss (27%).

Devin Singletary 2021 Game Log

Devin Singletary 2021 Game Log

Amongst running backs with at least 100 carries last season, Singletary proved to be one of the toughest to bring down. His broken tackle rate of 11.2% ranked sixth-best while his missed tackle rate of 10% ranked second behind D’Ernest Johnson (12%).

Cook profiles as a high-upside pass catcher, but never saw more than 113 carries in his four seasons at Georgia. At 5-foot-11, 199 pounds, he lacks the requisite size we tend to want out of early-down backs, which could leave the door open for Singletary on early rushing downs and short-yardage situations.

Kenny Golladay (NYG)

Underdog ADP: 123.1
FFPC ADP: 147.7

Breaking away from the Bills/Raiders-heavy start to this article, I’d like to entertain for a moment the notion of a Kenny Golladay bounce back in 2022. And if there’s a player who needs to bounce back in 2022, it’s Golladay.

Golladay signed a four-year, $72 million contract with the Giants last offseason before struggling his way through a defunct offense led by perhaps the worst coaching regime we’ve seen in recent memory.

Unaware of how to use Golladay, run an offense or even attempt to win football games, the Giants’ coaching staff spent more time practicing losing tactics than winning ones.

In his final three seasons with the Lions, Golladay commanded a solid 22% target share and was 10th in average yards per target at 13.7 (min. 100 targets). Of the 36 games he appeared in over that span, he posted a top-24 week or better in 53% of those games. Then in 2021, Golladay posted an abysmal receiving line of 37-521-0 and a 17% target share -- his lowest since his rookie season.

Assuming an overall offensive improvement for the Giants in 2022, Golladay has almost nowhere to go but up from his current draft slot of WR57. As mentioned earlier, the Bills were one of the most aggressive teams in early-down pass rate under Daboll. While we shouldn’t expect the same high-volume passing for the Giants, a team’s WR1 has seen a target share of 22% or better in Daboll’s offense since 2011. In each of his last three seasons with the Bills, two receivers have sported a target share of 20% or higher. Denny Carter also pointed out recently that the deep ball skills of Daniel Jones could point to a rise in Golladay’s production this season.

Injuries and age are a concern for Golladay. Another year of incompetent coaching is not.

Late Round Buys

Robby Anderson (CAR)

Underdog ADP: 183.7
FFPC ADP: 187.5

I’m unwilling to throw dirt on the grave that is Robby Anderson‘s 2022 season. As a matter of fact, I think it could be one that features a resurrection.

Carolina’s 2021 campaign went bad in every imaginable way. It came to a head when a reunion with Cam Newton led to five straight losses and his eventual benching in favor of Sam Darnold.

Anderson felt the brunt of the struggle just one year removed from a season in which he went for 95-1088-3 under Teddy Bridgewater. Anderson was cursed with some of the worst passing in the league that ranked dead last in EPA per dropback (-0.158) and dropback success rate (41.1%), it’s no surprise that Anderson’s catchable pass rate (71%) was the fourth-worst amongst receivers.

Sam Darnold/Cam Newton - 2021 Disaster

Sam Darnold/Cam Newton - 2021 Disaster

Robby Anderson 2020-2021

Robby Anderson 2020-2021

The downside is Darnold is likely to start for the Panthers to open this season. The upside is that Matt Corral is simply waiting for his turn.

Playing in the SEC last season, Corral ranked fifth amongst conference QBs in deep ball attempts (52), fifth in deep ball completion percentage (40.4%) and was fourth in yards per attempt. His ADOT of 34.0 ranked first in the conference.

Once thought to be a potential first or second rounder, Corral was a victim of the Great Rookie QB Fall of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Panthers stopped his slide when they drafted him with the 94th overall pick. Corral brings plenty to the table as both a passer and a runner and can extend plays when needed.

I fully expect to see Corral when Matt Rhule officially plunges into “job-saving mode” by October.

Carrying a 16th-round ADP, Anderson would need only a few good weeks to be considered a hit here. He should remain locked in as Carolina’s WR2 opposite D.J. Moore and was the overall WR14 in snap share last season at 85%.

Brian Robinson (WSH)

Underdog ADP: 177.3
FFPC ADP: 163.6

The nerds love Antonio Gibson. It’s one of the worst-kept secrets in fantasy. Our spreadsheets can’t help but point to drafting him.

Unfortunately for us, Ron Rivera‘s draft board said, “draft a running back you think you need in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft.” Rivera subsequently listened to the demands of his board and drafted Alabama’s Brian Robinson.

Robinson’s current ADP feels like one last revolt by the spreadsheet warriors to keep Antonio Gibson far more relevant than he’s likely to be in 2022. Don’t get me wrong, I think Gibson still carries low-end RB2 upside, but I’m also prone to believe that Robinson has a chance to vulture early-down work and goal line touches from Gibson. Rivera has already gone as far as to comp the situation between Gibson and Robinson as one similar to Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams during his Carolina days -- he loves his Carolina days.

Robinson broke out for Alabama last season to the tune of 217-1343-14. His 79 missed tackles forced ranked third in the nation behind Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker (89) and Jaylen Warren (85).

To date, Robinson looks like one of the more undervalued Zero RB candidates at his current price. Of the seven running backs selected with top-120 draft capital, only San Francisco’s Tyrion Davis-Price has an ADP (184.5) lower than Robinson’s.

Snoop Conner (JAC)

Underdog ADP: 215.9
FFPC ADP: 237.0

Join me as I think through reasons why fifth-round running back Snoop Conner may actually be a thing in 2022.

  • Travis Etienne returning from a torn ACL
  • James Robinson suffered a torn Achilles in Week 16
  • Jaguars traded up in the fifth round to select Conner
  • Conner is likely to enter training camp as the third RB on Jacksonville’s depth chart

To put it lightly, Conner is facing one of the less-muddy paths to touches in 2022 for a third-string running back, and his ADP suggests nobody cares.

A pure battering ram of a runner, Conner can win at the goal line. He’s an above-average athlete who possesses 4.59 speed and the ideal size to absorb and dish out punishment.

Snoop Conner RAS

Snoop Conner RAS

It seems unlikely Robinson would recover from his Achilles injury in time for Week 1. How Robinson performs post-recovery is another hurdle to clear entirely. Similar can be said of Etienne as he looks to make up for a lost rookie season.

Conner’s college production profile is less than stellar, having never rushed for more than 647 yards in a single season at Ole Miss. He’s also unlikely to catch many passes.

Snoop Conner college stats

Snoop Conner college stats

However, in the final round of best ball drafts, we are less concerned about impressive profiles and more concerned about a sliver of opportunity breaking in our favor. That at the very least appears to exist for Conner, who should be good for a few goal line scores if/when his number is called.