Quarterbacks
Not only is quarterback the most valuable position in pro sports, it is also the toughest to evaluate. Just 10-of-26 (38.5%) quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 2006 and 2015 could be characterized as successes, and that’s stretching to include Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, and Sam Bradford. So we have a projection problem. We also have a quarterback worth problem in fantasy football, where the position is severely devalued in leagues that require you to start just one. It is fantasy’s most replaceable weekly position. Therefore, I’m mostly letting my competition draft rookie quarterbacks in Dynasty leagues. If I do draft one, it will be far later than his ADP and that rookie must offer a big weekly ceiling.
1. Texans QB Deshaun Watson (First Round, No. 12)
Watson is the best bet to provide year-one fantasy contributions in this quarterback class, and his plus mobility and quality supporting cast give Watson short- and long-range upside. An 81st-percentile athlete with 4.66 speed, Watson piled up 26 rushing TDs as a 35-game starter at Clemson. Physical route technician DeAndre Hopkins, 4.32 lid-lifter Will Fuller, and capable possession tight ends C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin form a talented pass-catcher corps yet to be fully unlocked.
2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (First Round, No. 10)
While Watson provides a solid ceiling, it’s nowhere near as high as Mahomes’, whose sheer physical tools ranked among the league’s elite the moment the Chiefs turned in their draft card. We can’t anticipate Mahomes seeing the field before 2018, so he’ll likely waste a Dynasty roster spot the entirety of his first year. Alex Smith’s guaranteed money runs out after the season. The Chiefs’ in-place pass-catcher corps is average, but Andy Reid’s tutelage is a major plus as a proven quarterback maximizer. From Brett Favre to Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, and now Smith, Reid has shown a consistent willingness to adapt his offense to highlight strengths and minimize weaknesses. Mahomes also offers rushing upside after scoring 22 TDs on the ground as a 29-game starter.
3. Browns QB DeShone Kizer (Second Round, No. 52)
I think Rotoworld draft analyst Josh Norris put it well when he stated 2015 Kizer was the best quarterback prospect in the 2017 class. The bottom fell out on Kizer during a dumpster-fire 2016 Notre Dame season. Kizer’s college coach didn’t support him during the year or during the pre-draft process, and he wound up as the lowest-cost quarterback in terms of real-life draft capital among the top four. Kizer’s floor is almost nonexistent, but like Mahomes his ceiling is sky high in a Hue Jackson offense with Corey Coleman, David Njoku, Kenny Britt, and Duke Johnson in place as potential-ridden pass catchers behind a Browns offensive line that has a chance to be among the best in the league.
4. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (First Round, No. 2)
Again, upside is one of my primary criteria when evaluating quarterbacks as Dynasty prospects. Of the four QBs drafted in the first two rounds, Trubisky would appear to have the lowest ceiling based on skill set, supporting cast, coaching history, and team philosophy in Chicago. I see him as a Ryan Tannehill-level player at his peak. As a small-sample, 13-game college starter, Trubisky also has one of the lowest floors. I can’t imagine spending a pick on Trubisky in almost any Dynasty format, and I’m very willing to live with that even on the off chance he hits.
5. 49ers QB C.J. Beathard (Third Round, No. 104)
A career 58.1% passer who slumped to 56.5% as a senior at Iowa, Beathard does have a few things going for him. He has a rifle arm, tying Mahomes for the second best ball velocity at the Combine (55 MPH) behind Davis Webb (56). And according to Peter King’s MMQB article on the 49ers’ draft, Beathard was coveted by offense-savvy coach Kyle Shanahan. “He processes the game so well,” said Shanahan. “Tough as sh--. Got a chance. He reminds me a lot of Kirk Cousins.” King reported Beathard was “the only quarterback Shanahan wanted in this draft.”
6. Steelers QB Josh Dobbs (Fourth Round, No. 135)
A heady prospect with a degree in aerospace engineering, Dobbs set Tennessee all-time records for rushing yards (2,160) and rushing touchdowns (32) by a quarterback, averaging a crisp 4.93 yards per career carry. While Dobbs is a major work in progress as a passer, he offers more long-term appeal than current Steelers backup Landry Jones behind 35-year-old starter Ben Roethlisberger, who claims to have considered retirement this offseason. The Steelers, of course, are loaded with talent at the skill positions and on the offensive line. Dobbs drew some pre-draft comparisons to Dak Prescott.
7. Giants QB Davis Webb (Third Round, No. 87)
Compared to Nick Foles by Rookie Scouting Portfolio’s Matt Waldman, Webb offers plus size (6’5/229) and a strong arm but wasn’t an efficient passer or rushing threat at the college level. Webb is appealing only on the basis of draft capital and 36-year-old Eli Manning’s steep downward trajectory.
8. Bills QB Nathan Peterman (Fifth Round, No. 171)
Smart, coachable, and fundamentally sound, Peterman has drawn comparisons to Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton. Tyrod Taylor’s “two-year, $30.5 million” deal contains just $1 million guaranteed beyond 2017.
9. Broncos QB Chad Kelly (Seventh Round, No. 253)
Truly one of the most intriguing Mr. Irrelevant picks of all time, Kelly showed an early-round skill set in two years at Ole Miss, but nearly fell out of the draft altogether due to injury and off-field concerns. As neither Trevor Siemian nor Paxton Lynch is remotely a surefire franchise quarterback, there is a non-zero chance Kelly could emerge as the Broncos’ best signal-caller option by 2018.
10. Lions QB Brad Kaaya (Sixth Round, No. 215)
Not particularly strong armed, accurate, or athletic, Kaaya was drafted because of his smarts (34 Wonderlic score) and pro-style-offense experience at Miami. He strictly profiles as an NFL backup.
Running Backs
Running backs are colossal injury risks and increasingly viewed as replaceable by NFL teams, who have no qualms moving on from them if they make on- or off-field mistakes or show the slightest hint of decline. Due to running backs’ short shelf lives, I factor early expected impact into these rankings just as much – if not more – than long-term bankable talent. Regardless of scoring format, I want running backs who already excel at catching passes or have shown potential to become assets in the passing game.
1. Bengals RB Joe Mixon (Second Round, No. 48)
Draft capital was the lone missing piece for Mixon’s post-draft projection, and the Bengals’ willingness to select him in round two addressed it. Mixon has drawn Le’Veon Bell comparisons as a runner and is a skilled enough pass catcher I believe he could start at wide receiver in the NFL. On size and athletic measurables alone, Mixon compares favorably to Ezekiel Elliott. Giovani Bernard is coming off a torn ACL, while Jeremy Hill’s effectiveness has dipped each year he’s been in the league. I’m not sure Hill will be a part of the Bengals’ 2017 roster. In an explosive offense where his receiving ability is sure to be highlighted, Mixon is a safe bet for short-term impact with the highest long-term ceiling in this running back class.
2. Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey (First Round, No. 8)
Mixon, McCaffrey, and Leonard Fournette were all in near-even contention for my No. 1 post-draft Dynasty rookie back, with Dalvin Cook a very close fourth. I wouldn’t have any problem with someone taking McCaffrey over Mixon, and when on the clock I might even do so myself. Initially in Carolina, McCaffrey will have to compete with Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton for goal-line carries, while Newton’s averseness to targeting running backs in the passing game is a short- and long-term concern. A landing spot like Indianapolis, Philadelphia, or New Orleans would have been better for McCaffrey’s outlook. There’s a chance he turns out to be a better real-life than fantasy back in Carolina.
3. Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (First Round, No. 4)
All four of my Dynasty leagues use PPR scoring. If I were in a non-PPR Dynasty league, I would rank Fournette ahead of McCaffrey and quite possibly Mixon. Fournette is a passing-game question mark with shaky pass-blocking tape who dropped 8-of-48 catchable targets (credit: PFF) in his college career. Still, Fournette possesses the top Speed Score in this year’s running back class with 4.51 jets at 6-foot-1, 240 pounds, and the Jaguars’ No. 4 overall selection of him suggests they will treat Fournette as a true offensive centerpiece. In terms of sheer carries, Fournette offers the best upside among the top-four backs. He will have to overcome sub-par quarterback and offensive line play to realize his potential.
4. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (Second Round, No. 41)
Cook’s off-field and medical questions are less concerning now that he’s in the NFL as an early second-round pick for whom the Vikings traded up. Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon pose minor potential obstacles -- Murray for early-down/goal-line work and McKinnon for targets – but Cook’s all-around game should be viewed in the same tier as Mixon, McCaffrey, and Fournette’s, and like them Cook was drafted specifically to be his team’s new lead back. For me, Cook brings up the rear of the big four due to the Vikings’ low-scoring offense and sub-par line play. Fournette faces similar issues, but his draft capital was much stronger than Cook’s, and Fournette will therefore have greater margin for error.
5. Saints RB Alvin Kamara (Second Round, No. 67)
One of fantasy’s biggest post-draft risers, Kamara landed in an ideal PPR spot with the Saints, who perennially lead the NFL in running back targets. Sean Payton clearly coveted Kamara, trading a 2018 second-round pick to draft him in the third. “There are a handful of players you just have a clear vision for and he was one of those guys,” said Payton. Stretched as a featured runner but perfectly suited for a receiving-back role, Kamara never reached 20 carries in a college game but averaged more receptions per game (3.64) than McCaffrey (3.36), Mixon (3.08), Cook (2.54), and Fournette (2.14) last year and posted the highest SPARQ rating among all running backs at the Combine. Kamara should fill the “Sproles Role” early with a chance for more down the line. Mark Ingram has shuttled in and out of Payton’s doghouse, while 32-year-old Adrian Peterson’s roster spot is year to year.
6. Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt (Third Round, No. 86)
Albeit a poor man’s version, Hunt shares some similarities with Cook as an all-purpose back who didn’t test well in Indy but has excellent tape and was active in the passing game throughout his college career. Spencer Ware underwhelmed as the Chiefs’ 2016 lead back, wearing down as the season progressed and never earning a consistent receiving role. Charcandrick West has established himself as just a guy. A prime candidate to be this year’s Jordan Howard, Hunt has a chance to lead Kansas City’s 2017 backfield in touches.
7. Redskins RB Samaje Perine (Fourth Round, No. 114)
Oklahoma’s all-time leading rusher despite sharing time with Joe Mixon for the past two years, Perine entered a great-looking situation in Washington with only second-year UDFA Rob Kelley to beat out for early-down carries. While more-versatile Mixon’s presence in the Sooners’ backfield made it so Perine wasn’t featured in the passing game, he did catch 40 balls in three years and is a better receiving back than Kelley, who managed six receptions in his final college season and dropped 4-of-18 targets for the Skins last year. A tackle-breaking power runner, Perine is worth a late first-round Dynasty rookie pick.
8. 49ers RB Joe Williams (Fourth Round, No. 121)
Williams carries off-field concerns after getting kicked off the team at UConn for credit card theft and briefly retiring at Utah, but he posted the second-highest Speed Score among running backs at the Combine and was so coveted by run-game guru Kyle Shanahan that the 49ers traded up to draft Williams, even after GM John Lynch initially left Williams off his board. “I’m telling you right now: If we don’t get him, I’ll be sick,” said Shanahan, according to Peter King’s MMQB piece on the 49ers’ draft. “I will be contemplating Joe Williams all night.” Before the draft, Lynch openly questioned contract-year starter Carlos Hyde’s fit in Shanahan’s scheme, and Tony Pauline reported the Niners were “ready to give up” on Hyde. Williams runs 4.41 at 5’11/210 and averaged an absurd 190.3 rushing yards over his final seven college games. One PPR concern is Williams’ spotty track record in the passing game. He managed 20 receptions across 19 college games and dropped 5-of-27 catchable targets (PFF).
9. Texans RB D’Onta Foreman (Third Round, No. 89)
Finesse runners in power back bodies with minimal pass-catching experience aren’t my personal cup of tea, but there are positives for Foreman. He stands 6-foot, 233 and ran 4.45 at the Longhorns’ Pro Day after winning the 2016 Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. There is reason to believe Foreman could push Lamar Miller for first- and second-down carries in Houston, vulture goal-line touchdowns, and perhaps eventually threaten Miller’s starting job. At Foreman’s aggressive Dynasty ADP, however, he’s more likely to be someone I’ll let one of my competitors draft.
10. Colts RB Marlon Mack (Fourth Round, No. 143)
Mack is a big-play specialist with plus versatility who found a plum spot. Frank Gore turns 34 soon and journeyman Robert Turbin is a replacement-level No. 2 back. I never envisioned Mack as a future lead runner in the league, but landing with the Colts puts him on the second-round radar in rookie drafts.
11. Buccaneers RB Jeremy McNichols (Fifth Round, No. 162)
McNichols’ ground game is a major work in progress, but he is one of the top receiving and blocking backs in this class. The depth chart is murky in Tampa with the Bucs seemingly recommitted to Doug Martin, Jacquizz Rodgers returning, and passing-game specialist Charles Sims also back. McNichols’ range of outcomes is wide. I think he could hit big or go the Bishop Sankey route if his inside running doesn’t improve.
12. Steelers RB James Conner (Third Round, No. 105)
Similar to Perine, Conner is a between-the-tackles grinder with just enough receiving ability to be functional on all three downs. Le’Veon Bell is currently on a one-year deal in Pittsburgh. Conner would become a potential league winner if Bell got injured or suspended again, or left after this season.
13. Packers RB Aaron Jones (Fifth Round, No. 182)
One of my favorite sleeper running backs in this class before the draft and after, Jones is a better prospect than Packers fourth-round pick Jamaal Williams. Ty Montgomery is their main competition for touches. I love Montgomery’s upside in both re-draft and Dynasty leagues, but he is a converted wideout and special teamer who got benched repeatedly for pass-protection slipups last season.
14. Giants RB Wayne Gallman (Fourth Round, No. 140)
Gallman is a stiff, upright runner with barely-baseline NFL athleticism, and he was one of the worst pass-blocking backs I watched on film. While I am not a big fan of his game, Gallman’s situation keeps him intriguing with 2016 fifth-rounder Paul Perkins sitting atop the depth chart after a ho-hum rookie year.
15. Packers RB Jamaal Williams (Fourth Round, No. 134)
Williams caught only 15 passes over his final two college seasons, missing time due to injuries and suspensions. Still, he was drafted into one of the best offenses in the league and has some potential to force an immediate committee with Ty Montgomery. I still prefer Packers fifth-round pick Jones.
16. Falcons RB Brian Hill (Fifth Round, No. 156)
Favorite to open season No. 3 behind Devonta Freeman (contract year) and Tevin Coleman.
17. Jets RB Elijah McGuire (Sixth Round, No. 188)
Favorite to open season No. 3 behind aging Matt Forte and Bilal Powell.
18. Broncos RB De’Angelo Henderson (Sixth Round, No. 203)
Coastal Carolina’s all-time leading rusher runs 4.48 at 5-foot-8, 208.
19. Eagles RB Donnel Pumphrey (Fourth Round, No. 132)
Scatback build at 5-foot-8, 176, but was a workhorse at San Diego State.
20. Bears RB Tarik Cohen (Fourth Round, No. 119)
Another scatback (5’7/179) with less immediate opportunity than Pumphrey.
Other Rookie Running Backs: Cardinals RB T.J. Logan (Fifth Round), Bengals RB Brandon Wilson (Sixth Round), Raiders RB Elijah Hood (Seventh Round), Titans RB Khalfani Muhammad (Seventh Round), Packers RB Devante Mays (Seventh Round), Browns RB Matt Dayes (Seventh Round), Seahawks RB Chris Carson (Seventh Round), Free agent RB Joseph Yearby (Undrafted)
Wide Receivers
The NFL is increasingly a man-coverage/Cover 3 league wherein pass catchers constantly have to deal with defensive backs in their hip pocket. I want wideouts who win 50:50 balls, and if not, I want them to be able to outrun their opposition. I downgrade receivers I believe are one-trick-pony deep threats and project as complementary pieces. I want chances at big volume.
1. Titans WR Corey Davis (First Round, No. 5)
The best receiver in the draft on the basis of game film and college production lands with one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Marcus Mariota, and steps into an abundance of immediate opportunity. Rishard Matthews is best suited for a No. 2 receiver role, Tajae Sharpe is more of a No. 3/4, and Delanie Walker is going on age 33. While Mixon, McCaffrey, and Fournette all warrant serious consideration, Davis would be my personal pick at 1.01 in Dynasty rookie drafts.
2. Chargers WR Mike Williams (First Round, No. 7)
Williams was a debatable top-ten talent entering the draft, and San Diego’s pass-catcher corps was arguably its greatest roster strength. On several levels, Williams was a questionable real-life pick whose fantasy outlook is more than a little bit murky. Will he even start as a rookie? Even if he does, what is his range of outcomes? Keenan Allen is 25 years old and an established offensive focal point. Tyrell Williams is 25 coming off a 1,059-yard, seven-touchdown season as a second-year pro. All-purpose back Melvin Gordon is 24 coming off a breakout campaign, and Hunter Henry is 22 coming off one of the best rookie tight end seasons of all time. Mike Williams looks like a short- and potentially long-term role player in San Diego with no clear path to No. 1-wideout ascension. If I’m on the clock in a Dynasty draft and Williams appears to be my best option, I am shopping the pick for a proven NFL producer.
3. Bengals WR John Ross (First Round, No. 9)
Ross faces a similar predicament to Williams with a shakier resume. Ross reached 400 yards in just one college season and battled myriad injuries, suffering a right meniscus tear followed by microfracture surgery, a torn left ACL and meniscus, and a torn shoulder labrum from which he is now recovering. In both the short and long term -- albeit to varying degrees -- A.J. Green, Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, and Tyler Boyd all have secure target shares in Cincinnati’s offense. Brandon LaFell is far from a worrisome obstacle, but he is under contract affordably for the next two years and is probably going to play snaps. Tyler Eifert is in a contract year, but he is a valuable commodity the Bengals will surely work to extend should Eifert show any signs of improved durability. Ross is a better bet for real-life than fantasy impact.
4. Bills WR Zay Jones (Second Round, No. 37)
Whereas Williams and Ross both caught unideal destinations, Jones’ path to a featured role is easier to parse out. The Bills declined foot- and hip-hobbled Sammy Watkins’ fifth-year option, putting him in a contract year. Charles Clay has struggled with knee and back injuries and shown zero on-field rapport with Tyrod Taylor. Beyond that, useful pass-catching bodies in Buffalo are nearly nonexistent. It doesn’t hurt that the Bills traded up for Jones and reunited him with college position coach Phil McGeoghan, who now coaches the Bills’ wideouts. In terms of talent, Jones lands somewhere between Robert Woods and Jordan Matthews. I think Jones has a solid floor with better long-term upside than meets the eye.
5. Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Second Round, No. 62)
As the Steelers were forced into using “Cobi Hamilton” as a near every-down player during their 2016 late-season and playoff run, it’s no surprise they invested an early-round pick into a pass catcher. Cody Kessler and Sam Darnold’s go-to guy at USC, Smith-Schuster is an exceptionally young prospect who won’t turn 21 until around Thanksgiving. In Pittsburgh, Smith-Schuster’s outlook is very much tied to Martavis Bryant, who is probably one strike away from career-long NFL banishment, but who will be on the field ahead of Smith-Schuster if eligible to play. All of that makes Smith-Schuster an uncomfortable Dynasty gamble, albeit one with every-week WR2 upside if Bryant smokes his way out of the league.
6. Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (Third Round, No. 84)
Godwin dominated in the Big Ten at a young age, is a plus athlete at 6-foot-1, 209, and has a trump card as a consistent winner in contested-catch situations. His chances of seeing the field early are debatable and ultimately unclear. Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Godwin are all boundary types, and the Bucs seem intent on using more two-tight end “12” than three-wide “11” personnel after pairing O.J. Howard with Cameron Brate. Ranking Godwin as a top-five receiver pick is mainly a bet on talent with an understanding that Jackson is on the wrong side of 30 and the Bucs’ wideout depth chart remains thin.
7. Broncos WR Carlos Henderson (Third Round, No. 82)
With 29-year-olds Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders flanking each other and nothing between them, the Broncos are desperate for a receiving threat in the middle of the field. It’s why they traded for Vernon Davis and AJ Derby the past two years, and dabbled with Bennie Fowler and Jordan Norwood in the slot, amongst others. Built like Golden Tate at 5-foot-11, 199 with 4.46 wheels and a hyper-explosive 10-foot-11 broad jump, Henderson was the most physical tackle-breaking receiver in the nation last season. He should fill Denver’s slot vacancy immediately and has room for growth down the line.
8. Panthers WR/RB Curtis Samuel (Second Round, No. 40)
Samuel will be listed at wide receiver initially in Carolina, although I wouldn’t rule out the possibility he eventually gains running back eligibility. He had more rushing attempts (172) than receptions (107) at Ohio State and in some ways projects as a handcuff for Panthers first-rounder Christian McCaffrey. Samuel and McCaffrey can be used in similar ways. Samuel has superior straight-line speed (4.31), although McCaffrey is far more refined with a more defined role. Expected to be used in the slot and as a manufactured-touch player, Samuel also shares commonalities with 2016 Chiefs sensation Tyreek Hill.
9. Lions WR Kenny Golladay (Third Round, No. 96)
Golladay didn’t stand out to me before the draft, but he landed in a plum spot with better draft capital than expected, and therefore needs to be reevaluated. A well-above-par, 67th-percentile SPARQ athlete at 6-foot-4, 218, Golladay dropped just 5-of-165 catchable targets (PFF) in two years at Northern Illinois after transferring from North Dakota and graduated as the only two-time 1,000-yard receiver in school history despite dealing with five different starting quarterbacks in his two-year stay. Golladay profiles as a perimeter receiver opposite Marvin Jones, with Golden Tate moving back into the slot.
10. Cardinals WR Chad Williams (Third Round, No. 98)
I suspected Williams would go seventh round or undrafted after he wasn’t invited to the Combine, but GM Steve Keim and coach Bruce Arians clearly felt confidence in their evaluation. And their small-school track record is strong, hitting on John Brown (Pittsburgh State), David Johnson (Northern Iowa), Rodney Gunter (Delaware State), and J.J. Nelson (now-defunct UAB) recently. Williams offers plus size (6’1/207) and speed (4.43) and was a dominant college producer, leading the SWAC in every receiving category last year. Michael Floyd is gone, Larry Fitzgerald is considering retirement every offseason and is in a contract year, Brown’s health still seems touch and go and he too is in a contract year, Jaron Brown is coming off a torn ACL in a contract year, and Nelson is a role player with two years left on his deal.
11. Titans WR Taywan Taylor (Third Round, No. 72)
Another high-end producer and athlete, Taylor drew pre-draft comparisons to Emmanuel Sanders and Kendall Wright. He showed an ability to win inside and outside at Western Kentucky and succeeded against SEC schools, dropping a 9-121 stat line on Alabama and 9-112 on Vanderbilt last year. While Corey Davis is likely entrenched as Tennessee’s long-term No. 1 receiver and Rishard Matthews is a quality No. 2, Tajae Sharpe looms as Taylor’s biggest competition in three-wide sets. Albeit at least a year or two down the road, it’s not inconceivable Taylor emerges as the long-term No. 2 in Nashville.
12. Rams WR Cooper Kupp (Third Round, No. 69)
Kupp generated too much January hype for running crisp routes at the Senior Bowl and was exposed as a low-end athlete at the Combine. Still, the Rams were an intriguing landing spot with 296 targets missing from last year’s roster and only Robert Woods added in free agency. Kupp’s exceptional college production can’t go overlooked, and his 6.75 three-cone time is indicative of the quicker-than-fast slot receiver Kupp’s tape shows him to be. I expect Kupp to open this season as the Rams’ starter in the slot, with Woods at Z and perhaps fellow rookie Josh Reynolds at X. In those short-to-intermediate roles, Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon were high-volume producers in Sean McVay’s Redskins offenses.
13. Jets WR ArDarius Stewart (Third Round, No. 79)
Stewart draws Pierre Garcon and Golden Tate comparisons for his physicality and run-after-catch skills, and he should not struggle to see the field early as a Jet. Stewart was not a big-time producer at the college level, however, and the Jets lack a forward-thinking direction on offense. At the same time, his competition for targets remains slim.
14. Rams WR Josh Reynolds (Fourth Round, No. 117)
Built on ball skills and length, Reynolds’ game is reminiscent of ex-Bengals WR Chris Henry as a natural perimeter player and vertical threat. He scored 13 touchdowns as a 19-year-old in the SEC and averaged 17.4 yards per reception over his final two seasons at Texas A&M. In a corps otherwise comprised of interior-receiver types Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tavon Austin, and Pharoh Cooper, Reynolds stands out as the best field-stretching option. Reynolds is a high-upside target if you think the light can flip on for Jared Goff.
15. Packers WR DeAngelo Yancey (Fifth Round, No. 175)
Yancey is big (6’2/220) with adequate speed (4.53) and led the Big Ten in yards per reception (19.4) last season. The Packers’ offense has struggled when it has lacked a vertical dimension, something Yancey can provide. While Yancey’s early opportunity seems limited, keep in mind Jordy Nelson is turning 32, Randall Cobb has trended downward, and Davante Adams is entering the final year of his rookie deal.
16. Jets WR Chad Hansen (Fourth Round, No. 141)
Same situation as Stewart discussed above. Hansen is a sure-handed Chris Hogan type.
17. Eagles WR Mack Hollins (Fourth Round, No. 118)
Big (6’4/221) and fast enough (4.53). May max out as a special teams demon.
18. Seahawks WR Amara Darboh (Third Round, No. 106)
Darboh lacks standout traits, but Jermaine Kearse should be on the hot seat in Seattle.
19. Redskins WR Robert Davis (Sixth Round, No. 209)
Top SPARQ performer at the Combine broke all Georgia State receiving records.
20. Jaguars WR Dede Westbrook (Fourth Round, No. 110)
Heisman Trophy finalist landed behind Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marqise Lee.
21. Raiders WR Ishmael Zamora (Undrafted)
Top-ten rookie WR on talent alone. Raiders are thin at receiver behind their starters.
22. Chiefs WR Jehu Chesson (Fourth Round, No. 139)
Chiefs traded up to draft this SPARQ specimen. 6-foot-2, 204 with 4.47 speed.
23. Cardinals WR Krishawn Hogan (Undrafted)
Big, athletic project from NAIA school. Cards WR depth chart is unsettled long term.
24. Cowboys WR Ryan Switzer (Fourth Round, No. 133)
Scored seven punt return TDs in college. Slot prospect like Cole Beasley.
25. Packers WR Malachi Dupre (Seventh Round, No. 247)
Will battle Yancey, Jeff Janis, Trevor Davis, and Geronimo Allison for 2-3 roster spots.
Other Rookie Wide Receivers: Bengals WR Josh Malone (Fourth Round), Eagles WR Shelton Gibson (Fifth Round), Vikings WR Rodney Adams (Fifth Round), Broncos WR Isaiah McKenzie (Fifth Round), 49ers WR Trent Taylor (Fifth Round), Dolphins WR Isaiah Ford (Seventh Round), Vikings WR Stacy Coley (Seventh Round), Seahawks WR David Moore (Seventh Round), Cowboys WR Noah Brown (Seventh Round)
Tight Ends
My criteria for tight ends is similar to wide receivers. I want big tight ends who can run. As tight ends persistently struggle for early-career relevance, lowered initial expectations push tight ends down an overall Dynasty rookie board. Rare is the tight end who’s worthy of a first-round rookie pick. There are three this year, but I believe they belong at the end of the round. Tight ends additionally run into a similar problem as quarterbacks. Many leagues require you start just one -- enhancing the replaceability of the position -- and wide receivers and running backs tend to outscore tight ends in bulk fantasy points, thereby decreasing tight ends’ value in leagues with extra flex spots.
1. Browns TE David Njoku (First Round, No. 29)
Ranking the big three tight ends is extremely difficult. I initially had O.J. Howard first, then Evan Engram, but settled on Njoku, whose pass-catching ceiling I believe to be highest in the group. Njoku’s run-after-catch ability is the best of any college tight end I’ve seen since Travis Kelce. His ball skills and routes are superior to Howard’s, and Njoku is a much better blocker than Engram, which should ensure Njoku gets and stays on the field early. While he is rough around the edges and the Browns’ quarterback situation is a concern, I think Njoku has the best chance to become a fantasy difference maker in a few years.
2. Giants TE Evan Engram (First Round, No. 23)
A path for Engram to emerge as the No. 2 option in New York’s pass-catcher corps by 2018 isn’t tough to envision. 33-year-old Brandon Marshall’s two-year contract contains no guaranteed money beyond this season, while the Giants’ offseason moves suggest they envision slot man Sterling Shepard as strictly a role player. Engram is every bit a wide receiver first and tight end second. He almost never lined up on the line of scrimmage at Ole Miss, and he runs 4.42 at 6-foot-3, 234. Those are the measurables of a big receiver, not a tight end. Still, Engram’s utter lack of blocking ability is a concern for his near- and long-term playing time, and his odds of becoming the true focal point of his team’s passing game are much lower than Njoku’s. On the Giants, everyone else is a complement to 24-year-old Odell Beckham.
3. Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (First Round, No. 19)
I believe Howard was the best all-around tight end in this class from a three-down standpoint. He’s the best pure blocking tight end I’ve ever seen come out of college, and he is a top-shelf athlete with the same stop-watch speed as Leonard Fournette (4.51) despite carrying 11 more pounds. Howard’s catches at Alabama consisted largely of pitches and dump-offs, however, and he wasn’t nearly as productive as Engram or Njoku from a yardage or scoring standpoint. It doesn’t help that Howard landed on a Tampa team where he will be a complementary pass catcher for the foreseeable future, and where Cameron Brate has an entrenched role as the Buccaneers’ F tight end to Howard’s on-the-line-of-scrimmage Y.
4. Bears TE Adam Shaheen (Second Round, No. 45)
It should be common knowledge that tight ends take more time than other positions to transition into the NFL. They have to learn how to block on the line and from an H-back or detached alignment. They have to know how to play slot receiver. (Even a “pro-style” tight end like O.J. Howard has minimal pro-style route experience.) Tight ends have to learn how to block and catch passes lined up in the backfield without disrupting the timing of their quarterback. Some tight ends line up out wide at times. Others are asked to operate as sixth offensive linemen. Adding to that transition for players like Shaheen (Ashland), Gerald Everett (South Alabama), Jonnu Smith (Florida International), Michael Roberts (Toledo), and Eric Saubert (Drake) is that they are coming from small schools and facing colossal jumps in competition and opponent speed. Therefore, even for a prospect possessing Shaheen’s theoretically Gronkian upside, I would be hesitant to invest significant Dynasty draft capital. More of these guys will miss than hit.
5. Rams TE Gerald Everett (Second Round, No. 44)
A high school basketball star who bounced from community college to UAB and finally South Alabama, Everett was hyper productive in his two years in the Sun Belt Conference and tested like an elite athlete in Indy with top-five SPARQ results at 6-foot-3, 239. At their post-draft press conference, Rams GM Les Snead and coach Sean McVay spoke of placing an increased emphasis on two-tight end sets involving Everett and Tyler Higbee, a former wide receiver with better size (6’6/249) than Everett. While dreams of Everett-Higbee combination packages undoubtedly intrigue Rams coaches, the odds of one or both becoming legitimate fantasy difference makers seem slim. Everett is a late-round Dynasty rookie stab.
6. Titans TE Jonnu Smith (Third Round, No. 100)
Although Everett was drafted 56 picks before him, I waffled between Smith and Everett in the No. 5 slot. Everett has a slight athletic edge, but Smith is bigger (6’3/248), was also wildly productive in college, and showed surprisingly well as a blocker on tape, which should help Smith’s big-league transition. Smith’s quarterback situation is also far more favorable. Before the draft, I thought Smith (coincidentally) had a lot in common with Titans TE Delanie Walker. Walker, of course, is now the biggest obstacle in Smith’s playing-time path. It should be noted Walker turns 33 in August and has two years left on his contract.
7. Vikings TE Bucky Hodges (Sixth Round, No. 201)
A projected second-day pick in most draft circles, Hodges apparently fell to round six due to “off-field issues,” which haven’t been documented. All I could find was a 2015 public-intox arrest. Another freak athlete in a tight end class full of them, Hodges didn’t really play tight end at all for Virginia Tech. He was a 6-foot-6, 257-pound X receiver who was recruited as a quarterback, and will have to learn the position from scratch behind Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota. 27-year-old Rudolph is under contract through 2019.
8. 49ers TE George Kittle (Fifth Round, No. 146)
With 4.52 speed at 6-foot-4, 247, Kittle posted the best SPARQ results among all tight ends before the draft. PFF College gave Kittle its second highest pass-blocking grade in 2016, behind only O.J. Howard. Kittle caught only 48 passes in his four-year Iowa career, but he averaged 15.4 yards per catch and could become a better pro than college player. The 49ers tried to trade Vance McDonald during the draft.
9. Jets TE Jordan Leggett (Fifth Round, No. 150)
Average athlete and poor blocker with a lot of opportunity in New York.
10. Lions TE Michael Roberts (Fourth Round, No. 127)
Sub-par athlete who scored 16 TDs in his final college season.
11. Broncos TE Jake Butt (Fifth Round, No. 145)
Zach Ertz-level talent coming off second career ACL tear. Likely redshirts in ’17.
12. Falcons TE Eric Saubert (Fifth Round, No. 174)
Small-schooler from Drake ran 4.65 at 6’5/253. Behind Austin Hooper in Atlanta.
Other Rookie Tight Ends: Redskins TE Jeremy Sprinkle (Fifth Round), Bengals TE Mason Schreck (Seventh Round)
Overall Dynasty Top 50
1. Corey Davis
2. Joe Mixon
3. Christian McCaffrey
4. Leonard Fournette
5. Dalvin Cook
6. Alvin Kamara
7. Mike Williams
8. John Ross
9. Kareem Hunt
10. Samaje Perine
11. David Njoku
12. Evan Engram
13. O.J. Howard
14. Zay Jones
15. Joe Williams
16. JuJu Smith-Schuster
17. D’Onta Foreman
18. Chris Godwin
19. Carlos Henderson
20. Marlon Mack
21. Curtis Samuel
22. Jeremy McNichols
23. James Conner
24. Kenny Golladay
25. Chad Williams
26. Taywan Taylor
27. Cooper Kupp
28. Aaron Jones
29. ArDarius Stewart
30. Deshaun Watson
31. Patrick Mahomes
32. Josh Reynolds
33. Adam Shaheen
34. Wayne Gallman
35. Jamaal Williams
36. Gerald Everett
37. Jonnu Smith
38. Brian Hill
39. Elijah McGuire
40. De’Angelo Henderson
41. DeAngelo Yancey
42. Donnel Pumphrey
43. DeShone Kizer
44. Mitchell Trubisky
45. Bucky Hodges
46. Chad Hansen
47. Mack Hollins
48. Amara Darboh
49. Robert Davis
50. Dede Westbrook
