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The Road To Super Bowl LVI
This Sunday, the 2021 NFL season comes to a close with Super Bowl LVI. I’ve spilled a lot of digital ink over the course of the season praising both the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals and am excited to see these two teams square off. On paper, this appears to be a David vs. Goliath matchup.
If you’re going by what “should” happen, the Bengals should not be here. The team almost lost to a Tennessee Titans team in the Divisional round, despite Ryan Tannehill’s awful play. Winning 19-16 against a team whose quarterback threw for 220 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions (the Bengals scored on two of those interceptions). The Bengals also required a historically bad second half from Patrick Mahomes and an equally good one from Joe Burrow to overcome their 11-point deficit against the Chiefs. But sometimes, luck is what you need to make it this far. Ultimately, the playoffs are where miracles like this Bengals run happen, and I for one am thankful for the variance of this beautiful game.
I should add that the Rams have had some luck of their own to get this far. In order to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Rams relied on a heavy dose of Cooper Kupp magic on their final drive of the game. It was a five-play drive, with Kupp dragging the team 63-yards down the field and setting up Matt Gay for a 30-yard field goal to win the matchup in regulation. In the NFC Championship game, exceptional cowardice from Kyle Shanahan allowed the Rams to continue fighting for a comeback. It does help that mid-season trade target Odell Beckham showed the world that he’s still a very good wide receiver. Kupp and Beckham were able to capitalize on Shanahan’s passive playcalling, breaking off big chunk gains and thereby allowing the Rams to score points. The Rams’ defense did a great job against the Niners’ offense and picked off Jimmy Garoppolo to cement their trip to Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles.
Matchups To Watch
One thing that impresses me has been Zac Taylor’s slavish dedication to establishing the run this offseason. Joe Mixon’s final rushing stat line against the Chiefs looks to be respectable (21-88-0) but 28 of those rushing yards (~32%) came in overtime. Frankly, Mixon hasn’t really justified the level of usage he’s garnered considering he’s averaging 3.6 yards per carry over the course of this post-season. Mixon now faces his stiffest test of the playoffs, dealing with a Rams defense that’s fairly stingy against the run.
Compounding this challenge is the matchup in the trenches. The Rams boast an explosive pass rush, which is bad news for the Bengals’ offensive line who offer less resistance than a wet paper towel. Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times in the regular season and ate nine sacks against the Tennessee Titans earlier in the playoffs. Burrow has expressed faith that the Bengals’ offensive line will rise to the challenge. However, I believe that Ralph Wiggum put it best when he said “I’m in danger.” I’d look for the Bengals to try to neutralize this pass rush by trying to get the ball out quickly. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all dynamic receivers and it’s very difficult to shut down all three.
Per Sports Info Solutions, the Rams utilize light boxes at the highest rate in the NFL. Given their dominant pass rush, it makes sense that they’re able to generate pressure without having to attack with additional players. It just so happens that Burrow tends to lead the league in completion rate when facing defenses that rush 6-or-fewer rushers. I’d expect that the Bengals do find success when attacking the Rams through the air.
For the Rams, the path to victory also comes via the air. Their rushing attack has failed to really gain much traction over the course of the playoffs. Cam Akers took over this backfield but is currently averaging 2.8 yards per carry, which isn’t good enough to justify continuing to run the ball. Akers did have to miss part of the NFC Championship game with a shoulder injury, but Sony Michel hasn’t acquitted himself as a viable stand-in. I should note that the Bengals’ rush defense is softer than the Niners’, but I’d expect the team continues to lean on their lethal one-two punch of Kupp and Beckham.
Offseason Storylines To Follow
As fantasy players, we know that there is no offseason. If you play dynasty, are jumping into best ball drafts, or just want to keep a pulse on the league, here are a few storylines that I’ll be following:
- There are rumors that Rodgers is on his way out from Green Bay, but Ian Rapoport reported that there’s cautious optimism that he stays. I’d be quite curious to see how Green Bay manages to get him to stick around, especially if they franchise tag Davante Adams.
- The Steelers are likely to lose JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency. Smith-Schuster re-signed with the Steelers on a one-year, $8 million contract as a free agent last season, but has largely disappointed. Given that Smith-Schuster is still quite young, I can see a receiver-needy team paying up for his services this offseason. This in turn should create additional opportunities for Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth in the receiving game.
- Speaking of the Steelers, it’s an open secret that the Steelers appear to be quite enamored with QB Malik Willis. The team has to transition into a world without Ben Roethlisberger under center and they’d be better off taking shots on players with solid upside like Willis.
- Another receiver we should be expecting to change teams is Allen Robinson. Robinson had a terrible season, posting career-worst numbers. Robinson did not show any of the upside that made him one of the best receivers in the league, but I suspect he can still play. The Colts are rumored to be front runners for Robinson’s services, which would instantly thrust him in as the team’s WR2 after Michael Pittman.
- Although Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, Michael Gallup, and Mike Williams are all UFA’s, I expect that they’ll be signed back with their respective teams. I am curious about Will Fuller, AJ Green, Emmanuel Sanders, and Sammy Watkins’ futures. Fuller is the most intriguing of the bunch, given that he barely played this season but has explosive upside. Green and Sanders are viable role players, but both appear to be on their way out. The same can be said for Watkins, who may have lost his job to Rashod Bateman.
