The NFL season is finally, mercifully underway. And with Week 1 now in the books, fantasy football teams far and wide are one of two things. Perfect or winless. There is no middle ground.
Well, unless you tied like the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers—which in some ways is even worse.
To say it was a wild week is an understatement. Khalil Mack‘s first game with the Chicago Bears included a defensive touchdown—and a blown 17-point lead. There were two weather delays of two hours-plus in Miami—and an equal number of return touchdowns. And in Los Angeles, Tyreek Hill reminded us all that the Kansas City Chiefs defense can be both awful and fantasy-relevant. ...
Sort of.
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The thing about Week 1 is, it’s just one week. Yes, last week was our first real look at this year’s versions of the league’s teams (the preseason shows, um, yeah), but it’s too small a sample size to make definitive statements about the entire season. That isn’t to say we didn’t learn anything—we know the Buffalo Bills are awful. But they probably aren’t going to lose every game 47-3.
The point is—don’t overreact too much to one bad (or great) fantasy performance. Or one loss. The fantasy football season is a marathon, not a sprint. Stay the course.
Well, except with the New Orleans Saints defense. You get 48 dropped on you at home by Ryan Fitzpatrick? You’re dead to me.
Or maybe not. See? I’m not overreacting!
NOTE: With Hurricane Florence expected to make landfall in the Carolinas later this week, there’s a possibility that Week 2 games on the East Coast could be adversely impacted by weather. In 12-team fantasy leagues, both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns ranked inside weekly starter territory a week ago in part because they played to a tie in a driving rainstorm. Watch weather reports. And if you’re in the path of the storm, stay safe.
WEEK 2 NO-DOUBTERS
Los Angeles Rams (vs. ARZ)
If this matchup was any better it would be covered in sausage gravy. The Cardinals were hot garbage offensively in Week 1, gaining less than 225 total yards and managing just six points against a Redskins defense that no one is going to confuse with the 1985 Bears any time soon. Now the Redbirds get to head to LA to face one of the most loaded defenses in the NFL in recent memory. Oh, and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald will have had another week to get his sea legs under him. Other than that though, there’s not a lot to like here.
Houston Texans (at TEN)
The Texans struggled defensively in Boston, which is not exactly something that qualifies as a surprise. But all will soon be well. This week the Texans travel to Nashville to face a Titans team that’s absolutely reeling after a Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Tight end Delanie Walker is out for the year with an ankle injury. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has a bum elbow and looked awful last week. And tackle Taylor Lewan is in the NFL’s concussion protocol. This game sets up well for JJ Watt and Co. to get the pass rush untracked—and for the Texans to feast.
Chicago Bears (vs. SEA)
The scheduling gods weren’t especially kind to the Bears to open this season. After having their hearts torn out by Aaron Rodgers, the Bears now to get to face an angry Russell Wilson. The thing is, Wilson’s not just angry because the Seahawks lost in Denver. He’s mad because the Seattle O-line was non-existent in the game. It got lost in how the game ended, but Khalil Mack and the Bears sacked Rodgers four times and forced three turnovers, one of which Mack returned for a score. The Bears are angry too after last week’s collapse, but the first half of that game was a preview of a Bears defense that could be among the best in both the NFL and fantasy football.
Philadelphia Eagles (at TBB)
Beware the offensive juggernaut that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers! Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers laid down Week 1’s most surprising offensive explosion Sunday in the Big Easy, but that’s much more likely to have been a fluke than the beginning of a trend. This isn’t to say that Tampa was a great matchup for defenses in 2017—the team ranked in the middle of the pack. But the Eagles are one of the very best defenses in the National Football League and should be able to generate consistent pressure on Fitzpatrick. Shake off last week and start the Eagles as you usually would.
Baltimore Ravens (at CIN)
The Ravens were the administers of that 47-3 thumping the Bills received, and the defense got in on the act as well. For the game, the Ravens allowed just 153 total yards, sacked Buffalo’s hapless quarterbacks six times and tallied three interceptions en route to a top-five Week 1 finish at the position. The sledding’s going to be tougher this Thursday night, but there’s a three-word phrase that should have folks rolling the Ravens out again with confidence—primetime Andy Dalton. Never mind that Cincinnati was a top-10 fantasy matchup for defenses in 2017.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD UNITE!
Los Angeles Chargers (at BUF)
Yes, the Chargers just got smoked like a fine Cuban cigar, giving up 38 points to the Kansas City Chiefs in a game where Tyreek Hill went absolutely bananas. But in fantasy football you have to have a short memory where team defenses are concerned. That’s the case this week. The Buffalo Bills looked like the worst team in the NFL in getting throttled by the Ravens in Week 1. The Bills barely cracked 150 total yards in Week 1 and allowed twice as many sacks (six) as they scored points (three). Even a west coast team heading east for a 1 PM start and the Chargers’ propensity for laying eggs isn’t enough to scare me off this matchup.
Carolina Panthers (at ATL)
The Panthers held the Cowboys to just eight points in Week 1 and sacked Dak Prescott half a dozen times, but a lack of takeaways landed the Panthers toward the bottom of the top 10. That’s a reasonable expectation for this week’s trip to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta’s red zone woes have carried over into 2018, and the Falcons allowed four sacks a week ago. I wouldn’t be doing cartwheels about the prospects of starting the Panthers on the road in Week 2, but their matchup isn’t as bad as many think.
New Orleans Saints (vs. CLE)
Right about now you’re probably wondering if I’ve taken leave of my senses. Or maybe started day drinking. After all, the New Orleans Saints just allowed over 500 yards of total offense and 48 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home—a performance that got the team dropped faster than a blind date that brings 11 cats with them to the restaurant. However, I’m not prepared to write off last year’s seventh-ranked fantasy defense after one bad game. OK, terrible game. OK, biblically horrible game. The Saints are going to be equal parts angry and desperate Sunday against Cleveland. It’s admittedly a speculative call, but this week the Saints rebound.
New York Jets (vs. MIA)
Heading into Monday night’s opener at Detroit, the New York Jets hadn’t scored a defensive touchdown since 2013. That streak is now over. The Jets did much more than that though. A tenacious Jets pass rush battered Matt Stafford for much of the game, Gang Green picked Stafford off four times and Andre Roberts returned a third-quarter punt for a touchdown. Sunday the Jets play host to a Miami Dolphins team that not only allowed a return touchdown of their own in Week 1 but also were a top-10 fantasy matchup for opposing defenses in 2017.
Denver Broncos (vs. OAK)
The Broncos came out on the winning side of one of Week 1’s most exciting affairs—a back-and-forth 27-24 affair with the Seattle Seahawks in the Mile-High City. The Broncos allowed quite a bit of yardage and points in the game, but the team made up for that with a bevy of big plays—Von Miller keyed a Denver pass rush that amassed six sacks and the Broncos forced three turnovers. Playing at home again against one of their most hated rivals, it’s not unreasonable to expect a similar effort that at least lands Denver in low-end streaming territory.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYG)
It got lost in the mess that was Dallas’ offensive play against the Carolina Panthers last week, but the Cowboys showed up defensively. The team allowed just 16 points and under 300 total yards while adding three sacks on the road. This week the Cowboys play host on Sunday night to a Giants team that appears to have many of the same problems as the team that ranked in the top half of the NFL last year in fantasy points given up to defenses. This isn’t a play for the weak-willed, but the Cowboys should be available on the majority of waiver wires in Week 2.
THE BEGGARS CAN’T BE CHOOSERS DEEP LEAGUE EMERGENCY PLAY
Miami Dolphins (at NYJ)
Last week I recommended the Washington Redskins as an emergency defense, and wouldn’t you know it they rose to the occasion, putting the clamps on Sammy and the Bradfords in the desert. This week it’s the winners of Week 1’s bizarro-world affair in Miami. The Dolphins finished as a top-10 fantasy defense in some scoring systems in Week 1 thanks mostly to a kick return score. You can’t count on those every week—if you could the Kansas City Chiefs would be regulars in this article. But the Dolphins also allowed less than 250 total yards in Week 1 and get a Jets team that was sixth in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to defenses in 2017 and is starting a rookie quarterback.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Minnesota Vikings (at GBP)
The Vikings were fantastic defensively against the 49ers last week, piling up three sacks, three interceptions and scoring a defensive touchdown on a pick-six. In most fantasy scoring systems, the Vikings were the No. 1 team defense in Week 1. And that Khalil Mack touchdown I mentioned propelled the Bears to a top-five fantasy finish. However, that was with DeShone Kizer at quarterback. In the second half Aaron Rodgers returner and reminded everyone why the Green Bay Packers aren’t a good matchup for defenses. The Vikings are nigh impossible to sit, but still—Aaron freaking Rodgers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NEP)
There’s something of a theme with the elite team defenses in Week 2—several have matchups that are less than ideal. Yes, the Jaguars just did a number on the New York Giants, with Myles Jack‘s interception return for a touchdown the cherry on top of a delicious, fantasy points-filled sundae. The Jaguars are at home this week, but that’s about the only good thing about this week’s meeting with Tom Brady and the Beantown Stormtroopers. Only one team in the NFL allowed fewer fantasy points to defenses last year, and in Week 1 was any indication this year isn’t going to be any different.
