The 2022 league year in the NFL isn’t even two weeks old. And already the league has lost its danged mind.
Free agency is an annual free-for-all across the league that has a massive impact on the fantasy football landscape. This year has been no different. But there is a difference between this season and the ones that came before it.
The trade market has been off…the…chain.
It all started when the Denver Broncos sent a package of picks to the Seattle Seahawks for quarterback Russell Wilson. But where in the past the Wilson deal would have defined the entire offseason, this year it was only the beginning.
The Houston Texans sent quarterback Deshaun Watson to Cleveland for three first-rounders and more—followed by the Browns giving Watson a massive fully guaranteed $230 million extension. That wasn’t the end of the carousel under, either. The Indianapolis Colts shipped 2021 starter Carson Wentz to Washington in one trade and then brought in 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan with another.
As if all that wasn’t enough, arguably the two best wide receivers in the entire NFL both have new teams as well. The Green Bay Packers traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, while the Kansas City Chiefs shipped Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins.
Add all the player movement together, and the fantasy value of players all over the league has been given the old snowglobe treatment. Actually, it has been something of a snowglobe thrown into a blender that was then shot from a cannon into a chipper-shredder.
The changes haven’t been quite as seismic on the defensive side of the ball, although there were big trades involving edge-rushers Khalil Mack (now a member of the Los Angeles Chargers) and Yannick Ngakoue (who will play for the Colts in 2022). And the biggest IDP domino has yet to fall—after being released by the Seahawks, long-time IDP stud Bobby Wagner has yet to find a new home.
But we have already seen a handful of individual defensive players who have been positively impacted by all the player movement. And a similar handful whose fantasy value has taken a hit.
WINNER: Chandler Jones
After six seasons (and a whopping 71.5 sacks) with the Arizona Cardinals, Chandler Jones joined the Las Vegas Raiders just before the team sent Ngakoue to Indianapolis. He’ll be well-compensated in his new home, getting $17 million a year over three seasons with $32 million in guarantees. Jones has 107.5 career sacks, second among active edge-rushers, He also logged 10.5 sacks and six forced fumbles last season en route to a top-15 fantasy finish. However, Jones had five of those sacks in the season-opener last year, has just 11.5 sacks over the past two seasons combined and is on the downside of his career at 32. Still, while expectations need to be tempered, getting positional eligibility back as a defensive lineman is absolutely a big boost to his IDP value.
LOSER: Haason Reddick
Despite posting a career-high 12.5 sacks two years ago with the Arizona Cardinals, Reddick was forced to sign a one-year deal with the Carolina Panthers in 2021. Reddick backed up that career year playing in a new defense, notching over 60 tackles, adding 11 sacks, and finishing eighth in fantasy points among edge-rushers. That second straight big season earned Reddick a three-year, $45 million pact with the Eagles, where he’ll play SAM linebacker in base sets and rotate off the edge in sub-packages. Reddick has absolutely come into his own as a player, but he’s playing for his third team in as many years and will probably be re-classified as a linebacker by some fantasy providers. Throw in the Eagles’ depth on the edge and penchant for rotating pass-rushers, and maintaining his DL1 value won’t be easy in 2022.
WINNER: Jordyn Brooks
While many of the players on this list have benefitted from (or been dinged by) a change of scenery, Brooks’ IDP value was boosted by the Seahawks’ decision to release Wagner. To be fair, Brooks is already coming off a career year and then some—he was second in the NFL with 184 total tackles in 2021 and finished sixth at the position in fantasy points—one spot behind his former teammate. If you want to roster Brooks in 2022, it’s going to cost substantial draft capital. But with Wagner gone, Brooks will face a lot less competition for stops. He’ll all but certainly kick inside to Wagner’s MIKE spot. And the odds he can post a second straight top-10 season have increased substantially.
LOSER: Jordan Hicks
The 2021 season was quite the rollercoaster for Jordan Hicks—he opened that summer looking like the odd man out at inside linebacker in Arizona. But the team couldn’t find a trade partner, Zaven Collins struggled adjusting to a new role in the NFL and Hicks wound up starting all 17 games, finishing second on the team with 116 total tackles while posting top-20 fantasy numbers. After being released by the Redbirds as the new league year dawned, Hicks landed in Minnesota, where he’ll join Eric Kendricks on the inside of the 3-4 front of new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. It’s not a worst-case landing spot for Hicks, but under Donatell the Denver Broncos were among the league leaders in snaps spent in the “dime” defense. That means just one linebacker on the field. And that linebacker will all but certainly be Kendricks.
WINNER: Kamu Grugier-Hill
Many times, the best thing that can happen for a player’s IDP prospects is staying right where they are. That was most assuredly the case with Houston Texans linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill. The 27-year-old isn’t an elite talent. He isn’t being paid like one either after inking a one-year, $4 million contract. But Grugier-Hill was the leading tackler for the Texans last year, racking up a career-high 108 total tackles. He was quietly 20th among linebackers in fantasy points last year and a top-15 linebacker in terms of fantasy points per game. He should once again be a three-down starter for a Texans defense that will spend a lot of time on the field in 2022. And he’s going to fly under the radar in more than a few IDP drafts.
LOSER: Myles Jack
There are some in the IDP community who felt that Myles Jack‘s release by the Jacksonville Jaguars and subsequent signing by the Pittsburgh Steelers could be a blessing in disguise—a chance to reboot a once-promising career playing in the middle of one of the league’s most formidable defenses. But we have been waiting for the 26-year-old to have a breakout year ever since the Jags drafted him early in Round 2 of the 2016 draft. Jack has topped 100 tackles three times in six years, but he’s had 110 stops just once. He’s also hit the 75-solo mark just once. He was barely a top-40 fantasy option last season. And from a fantasy perspective, the situation he’s in with the Steelers is worse than Jacksonville. He will probably see fewer tackle opportunities with more competition around him for those opportunities.
WINNER: Cory Littleton
Littleton’s foray into free agency in 2022 was much different than the last time. Back in 2020, coming off back-to-back seasons with 125 total tackles, Littleton signed a three-year, $36 million pact with the Raiders. Now, after two disastrous years in Las Vegas, Littleton was released and forced to sign a one-year “prove it” deal with the Panthers. By no stretch of the imagination is Littleton a sure thing. A rebound may not even be probable. But he is just 28 years old and displayed LB1 fantasy upside with the Los Angeles Rams. If Littleton can beat out fellow newcomer Damien Wilson for the second nickel linebacker spot opposite Shaq Thompson, Carolina could afford him a legitimate opportunity to get his career back on track. He’s also not going to cost much on draft day at all. Not after two miserable years in the silver and black.
LOSER: Jordan Whitehead
It’s unlikely that Whitehead or his agent will be hearing any of this “loser” talk. After all, the 25-year-old just parlayed his time in Tampa into a two-year, $14.5 million contract with the New York Jets. And from an NFL perspective, it was a good addition for a Jets secondary that needed all the help it could get. But fantasy-wise, the path to Whitehead having IDP relevance in 2022 needed one thing to happen. Whitehead needed to find a new home where he would be afforded more snaps closer to the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, the opposite was the case. With youngster Ashtyn Davis locked in as Gang Green’s box safety, Whitehead will be spending most of his time playing centerfield while the players in front of him (Davis included) pile up stats.
WINNER: Logan Ryan
When Whitehead left the Buccaneers for the Jets, it left Tampa with a sizable hole at the back of the defense—a hole the team filled by signing veteran defensive back Logan Ryan to a one-year deal after a 2021 season in which the 31-year-old piled up a career-high 117 total tackles on the way to a top-five fantasy finish. It was the second time in three seasons that Ryan topped 110 total stops—with two different teams. Throw in two more seasons with over 90 total stops, and Ryan has shown the ability to be both versatile and productive playing both cornerback and safety. Add in that he still has positional eligibility as a cornerback with some providers, and so long as Ryan remains a full-time starter, he retains substantial IDP value.
LOSER: Xavier Woods
In fairness to Xavier Woods, it was more likely than not that I would have recommended Woods, who piled up a career-best 108 tackles last year in his lone year with the Minnesota Vikings on the way to ending the season among the top-15 safeties in fantasy points. Prior to last year, Woods had never had even 80 stops in a season, and his 72 solos in 2021 matched his tackle total from the year before. Last year’s numbers just weren’t likely to be repeatable, and landing with the Carolina Panthers on a three-year, $15.75 million deal just sealed the deal. It’s a team where Woods appears slated for a clearly defined role away from the line of scrimmage—and a return to the fringes of IDP relevance ala his first four years in the league with the Dallas Cowboys.
