Welcome to the Rookie Report for the 2019 season! Every week, I’ll update this index of rankings based on the accumulation of rookie season performances. I’ll repeat that part: This isn’t a separate list each week based solely on the most recent game. It’s a continuation for the entire season. And it is not based on fantasy success or projection, more so overall performance. As you can tell, I’ve kept the list to skill position players. That should be self-explanatory based on the website and the limit of hours in a week.
I will repeat, this is not a fantasy football ranking. It’s based on in-game performance.
1. Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew
2019 stats: 69% comp | 905 yards | 7 TDs | 1 INT | 82 rush yards
The mention of “IT” is often met with snark. It is not chartable or quantifiable. To those who do not believe “IT,” I implore you to watch Gardner Minshew.
The Jaguars victory over the Broncos on Sunday heavily hinged on two plays made in the 3rd quarter, down 17-6. Both made by Minshew on dazzling individual efforts. The first, a 3rd & 14 conversion versus a four man rush, Minshew ducked out of the grasp of a defender and into open space along the right sideline. Rather than rush his decision or pick up a short gain on the ground, Minshew took his time. He allowed the game to slow down. After some finger-pointing and gesturing to shift routes on the fly, Minshew delivered a tight coverage completion 20 yards downfield.
Minshew and the Jaguars faced a 3rd & 5 on the same drive inside the 10 yard line. Again Minshew avoided a free rusher at his feet, then juked out a defensive tackle, then Bradley Chubb, and with three defenders centimeters away delivers a touch throw to Ryquell Armstead in the back of the endzone. A tidal wave of pressure was closing on him, yet Minshew slowed time down, played with composure, and delivered the perfect decision.
This serenade does not even include a game-winning field goal drive. Minshew is more than a mustache, and at some point we need to stop questioning when this wild ride will end, and instead just enjoy the journey.
2. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
2019 snaps: 63% comp | 1,071 yards | 4 TDs | 4 INTs | 113 rush yards | 1 TD
The honeymoon phase is over for Kliff Kingsbury. The head coach was hired for his creativity, for his scheme, for his ability to game gains. Through four games that potential has not been fulfilled.
Over the last two weeks against the Panthers and Seahawks, Kyler Murray attempted 12 throws over 10 yards, resulting in three completions and two interceptions. Offensively, the Cardinals relied on Kyler Murray creating time behind the line of scrimmage and finding David Johnson on extended plays, allowing the athletic running back to rumble over the defense. That identity is not sustainable game to game, or even half to half.
There are moments of brilliance from Kyler Murray. His movement is different, he looks different, his arm and release are different. But currently Murray is being forced to carry this offense. Kingsbury’s early season advantage relied on vertical routes from slot receivers Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. Those have vanished in recent weeks, and Kliff has failed to pivot. Everything the Cardinals accomplish currently sits on Murray’s shoulders.
3. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
2019 stats: 62 carries | 307 yards | 2 TDs | 3 rec | 57 yards | 54% snaps
From the first carry, Jacobs asserted himself as a force against the Colts. A 12-yard run with multiple broken tackles that finished strong with extra yards on final contact. Jacobs looks like a veteran; he shows patience behind the line, then plants his foot in a single step and explodes upfield. Beautiful. There is one area of improvement: Jacobs ended one carry with a two-yard loss after initially crossing the line of scrimmage. He searched for a big gain rather than taking what was there. Likely a result of just 22 combined carries the previous two games.
It is wild that Jon Gruden is not going out of his way to get Josh Jacobs more involved in the passing game. His three receptions have resulted in gains of 10, 19 and 28 yards. Give him more opportunities.
4. Ravens WR Marquise Brown
2019 stats: 34 targets | 18 rec | 304 yards | 2 TDs | 60% snaps
This was Brown’s least impactful performance of the season despite recording his highest snap total at 81 percent. Brown saw just 41 intended air yards on passes in his direction. Compare that to 147 in Week 1, 155 in Week 2 and 49 in Week 3. These down weeks can happen with a player who doesn’t see consistent volume in an offense that doesn’t rely on its passing game.
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5. Giants QB Daniel Jones
2019 stats: 69% comp | 578 yards | 3 TDs | 2 INTs | 66 rush yards | 2 TDs
This performance was far less flashy than Jones’ starting debut. Let’s get the mistakes out of the way. Jones threw interceptions on back to back drives in the second quarter on two passes just beyond 15 yards. The velocity of those throws seemed to die just before reaching the receiver. Both times a defensive back undercut the catch point. Concerning. In fact, Jones attempted just six passes that traveled over 10 yards in the air, completing one to his own team and two to the opposition.
Now to the good; Jones’ mobility is such a boost to this offense and every time he creates space for himself it leaves you wondering why the Giants continued to trot Eli Manning on the field. On multiple occasions Jones attempted throws in the face of direct pressure, situations late career Eli would have folded. To show comfort off script this early in a career is promising, and Jones working to his third option on his first trip inside the 10 yard line is a great example.
6. Redskins WR Terry McLaurin
2019 stats: 24 targets | 16 rec | 257 yards | 3 TDs | 90% snaps
McLaurin missed Week 4 with a late week hamstring injury. The result, the Redskins leading wide receiver hauled in a whopping 14 yards against an awful defense.
7. Seahawks WR DK Metcalf
2019 stats: 23 targets | 10 rec | 223 yards | 1 TD | 78% snaps
Just one lone reception for six yards this week for Metcalf. 95 percent of his routes still start on the left side of the formation and are based off a vertical line. It’s how he was used at Ole Miss, and now how he’s used in the NFL. Who knows if his game grows this season, next year or ever. Regardless, Metcalf is a priority target in the endzone for the Seahawks inside the 20 yard line, and saw another two targets in the scoring zone this week.[[ad:athena]]
8. Titans WR AJ Brown
2019 stats: 17 targets | 10 rec | 223 yards | 2 TDs | 45% snaps
Three targets. Three receptions. 94 yards and two touchdowns. On just 44 percent of the team’s snaps.
Brown’s first catch went for a 55-yard touchdown. The result defied the play call. Out of 22 personnel (two backs, two tight ends), Brown lined up as the sole receiver on the left side of the formation. It was basically a two man route off play action, and after catching the ball 10 yards directly in the middle of the field, Brown turned back toward the left sideline and outran four defenders for a score. A ridiculous individual effort.
In an offense which sets their receivers up for success on a more consistent basis, Brown could be posting monster numbers during his rookie season. His combination of aggression and fluidity might be rare. For now, all we can do is wish for a larger workload.
9. Bears RB David Montgomery
2019 stats: 58 carries | 200 yards | 1 TD | 8 rec | 61 yards | 54% snaps
It seems like we will be living in a world with a Chase Daniel-led Bears team for the foreseeable future, which will likely be a hindrance for Montgomery. Maybe the Bears rely on more backfield volume, but the amount of stuffed runs could dramatically increase. On Sunday, the result was 21 carries for 53 yards against the Vikings. The Bears became more predictable, space was not manufactured. There is not much a back of Montgomery’s style can do in that situation.
10. Eagles RB Miles Sanders
2019 stats: 45 carries | 178 yards | 6 rec | 84 yards | 40% snaps
Tied 27-27 deep into the 3rd quarter. 1st & 10. Dallas Goedert started out wide, motioned inside and drove an unblocked and unsuspecting Dean Lowry down a few gaps, leaving offensive linemen to engulf defensive backs. Sanders was the beneficiary, as he ran 25 yards before contacting a safety and fell a final five yards. We are still waiting on that big play by Sanders, and this was an opportunity. Make Darnell Savage miss in the open field and the result would have been a 75 yard touchdown.
