Last week, we kicked off the summer Worksheet series with a look at scoring, drives and plays. This week, we’re extending that scoring branch over into a look at red-zone productivity.
The red zone is vital because it’s where fantasy football money is made. They even dedicated an entire channel for you to watch on Sundays labeled after the moniker. 72.1 percent of all offensive touchdowns over the past 20 years have been scored inside the red zone. The tricky part of red-zone analysis is that it’s often presented as if we arbitrarily designated the 20-yard line to be the Holy Grail of touchdowns. It’s no secret that the closer you get to the end zone, the more likely you are to put the ball in the end zone.
53.1 percent of all offensive touchdowns have come inside the 10-yard line over this 20-year span. 73.6 percent of all red-zone touchdowns occur inside the 10-yard line, while 47.7 percent of all red-zone touchdowns come inside the 5-yard line. Given the addition of automatic spots for defensive penalties in the end zone, it’s not a surprise to see the 1-yard line hold the main spot for TD production, but the gap it has over the field is staggering, being nearly three times as valuable than just the next yard out.
A week ago, we talked about how offensive touchdown production cratered in 2017 and, of course, the lack of production in this area of the field payed a huge part in that decline. There were 172 fewer offensive plays run from inside the 5-yard line in 2017 compared to 2016 with 81 fewer touchdowns scored. Those 860 offensive snaps from inside the 5-yard line were a league low since 2001. We inherently are aware that a touch or target from the 19-yard line isn’t as valuable for fantasy purposes as one from the 1-yard line, yet we still stir all of those opportunities up in one big pot. If the 20-yard line is the red zone, then the 10-yard line is the green zone, and the 5-yard line is the gold zone.
The other inherently tricky thing when presenting red-zone production with an eye toward predictability is that red-zone opportunity year over year is among the most volatile we have.
Year Over Year Red Zone Opportunity Correlation
| Field | Tm Plays | Player PaAtt | Player Tgt | Player RuAtt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside RZ | 0.0846 | 0.4403 | 0.2557 | 0.4177 |
| Inside 10 | 0.0418 | 0.2968 | 0.0935 | 0.3482 |
| Inside 5 | 0.0203 | 0.1225 | 0.0481 | 0.2367 |
The way to read this is that just 8.46 percent of the following season’s red-zone opportunity for a team can be explained by their previous-year total and so on down the line and across the table. Predicting year-over-year team opportunity is a nightmare, and that rolls right into individual player opportunity. If you squint, you can talk yourself into the entirety of red-zone opportunity holding some water year-over-year for passing and rushing work, but when we get to those green and gold zones that we truly care about, yearly rollover can just about be thrown in the shredder. Scoring touchdowns is more about opportunity that anything else, and you shouldn’t take too much stock in adjusting your outlook on players solely based on spikes and lulls in the red zone.
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While placing too much stock in prior-season red-zone production is thin ice to skate on, we still don’t have to throw everything out when searching for a few signals. But since we’re aware that those opportunities are attached to a stick of dynamite, I’m going to spare you a post solely about last season’s individual red-zone performances. Instead, we’re going to shift gears and look at players that have been most reliant on red-zone opportunities and those who have shown a true skill in creating end-zone trips.
Those Who Have Needed Short Scores
| Player | ReTD | In10TD | TD% | Avg. ReTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hardy | 7 | 7 | 100.0% | 4.9 |
| Jack Doyle | 12 | 9 | 75.0% | 7.3 |
| Danny Amendola | 19 | 14 | 73.7% | 7.8 |
| Michael Thomas | 14 | 10 | 71.4% | 8.4 |
| Cole Beasley | 20 | 14 | 70.0% | 10.9 |
| Jordan Reed | 22 | 15 | 68.2% | 8.8 |
| Ed Dickson | 12 | 8 | 66.7% | 8.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 23.8 |
| Jarvis Landry | 23 | 15 | 65.2% | 12.1 |
| Marqise Lee | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 11.1 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 10 | 6 | 60.0% | 15.9 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 15.4 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 36 | 21 | 58.3% | 11.7 |
| Ben Watson | 42 | 24 | 57.1% | 10.9 |
| Willie Snead | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 11.1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 20 | 11 | 55.0% | 14.0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 20 | 11 | 55.0% | 12.8 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 33 | 18 | 54.5% | 18.7 |
| Allen Robinson | 22 | 12 | 54.5% | 15.3 |
| Julian Edelman | 24 | 13 | 54.2% | 18.9 |
| Randall Cobb | 39 | 21 | 53.8% | 16.1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 69 | 36 | 52.2% | 12.9 |
This is a group of pass catchers who have caught more than half of their career scores on targets inside the 10-yard line, where 40.8 percent of all touchdown passes were thrown over the past 20 seasons and 43 percent over the past five seasons.
Given his athletic profile, Jordan Reed is a bit of a surprising name here, but he hasn’t been a major big-play asset in the passing game like you’d believe. That may stem from compiling injuries or not. Reed has been more of a reception asset, averaging just 10.2 yards per catch for his career, while just two of his 22 touchdowns have come from outside the red zone. Fighting through a plethora of ailments in 2017, Reed was having his worst season to date, averaging career lows in yards per reception (7.8) and yards per game (35.2). Entering 2018 at age 28, Reed gets a new quarterback in Alex Smith who reinvented himself as a downfield passer a year ago. That may not hold up, but Smith has shown he can utilize a tight end advantage with Travis Kelce and Vernon Davis.
Jimmy Graham is coming off a season in which he was practically Seattle’s goal-line back. Graham caught seven touchdowns inside the 5-yard line with four coming from one or two yards out. His 50.6 PPR points inside the 5-yard line were the second most a tight end has scored over the past 20 seasons, trailing only Bubba Franks in 2001. Graham averaged a career-low 9.1 yards per reception and just 32.5 receiving yards per game, his lowest marks in both areas since his rookie season in 2010. To go along with the addition of Graham, the Packers released Jordy Nelson, who produced like a tight end last year. Despite his pedestrian yardage in Aaron Rodgers’ seven games, Nelson still managed six touchdowns with five of those coming from 10 yards and in, where Graham led the NFL in targets (16). Even if he fails to regain his production downfield, Graham can be identical to what he was a year ago – a glorified goal-line option – and still make a fantasy impact at a depressed tight end position.
With the emergence of Adam Thielen to go with Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph was once again relegated to a touchdown-dependent fantasy option. After a 132-target 2016 season, Rudolph saw 51 fewer targets in 2017. After pacing the position with 8.3 targets per game in 2016, Rudolph’s 5.1 targets per game ranked 15th.
Here’s where you can easily spot who has benefited most from Julio Jones struggling to convert short-scoring opportunities and drawing defensive attention. Teammates Justin Hardy, Austin Hooper, and Mohamed Sanu all make the cut on needing to score from short distance.
Danny Amendola will compete with Albert Wilson to soak up the 13 targets that Jarvis Landry left behind in this area of the field. Going back to last week, I believe Miami is due for a more evenly distributed rushing-to-passing touchdown ratio. I want to place bets on Kenyan Drake being the beneficiary, but the best short-term bet is that the Dolphins use a combination of players to make up Landry’s departure rather than just one guy taking over all that vacated opportunity.
Speaking of Landry, he led the league in receptions (10) and touchdowns (nine) from inside the 10-yard line. His longest touchdown reception on the year was nine yards out, so the Browns will have to create far more scoring opportunities for him to roll that production over.
Michael Thomas is the sole alpha wide receiver on this list. Thomas has scored 10 of his 14 touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line with just one coming from longer than 21 yards out. New Orleans was linked to both Jimmy Graham and Jordy Nelson this offseason – two players who thrived near the goal line -- before they signed with other teams, which was huge for Thomas maintaining his feature role in that area of the field. The Saints did bring in Ben Watson, who pops up on the list, but Watson had just three scores from this area of the field in 2015 when he was with New Orleans. Watson is fine deep cut as a TE2 but not someone we should be concerned with pushing Thomas out of a touchdown-scoring gig.
Allen Hurns has been getting a lot of push in the community lately as a potential beneficiary from the lack of options in Dallas, but we probably don’t want to completely forget about Cole Beasley. Beasley is far from a special talent, but he does have three multiple touchdown games over the past two seasons. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it’s tied for fourth most in the NFL. Also, the last time Dallas was without Dez Bryant, it was Beasley who developed an instant rapport with Dak Prescott, catching five or more passes in 8-of-11 games to open 2016.
32 percent of Andrew Luck’s targets inside the 10-yard line over his past four seasons have gone to tight ends, so it’s not surprising to see both Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen in this group. In 2017, Doyle became just the second tight end to ever catch over 70 passes in a season and average fewer than 9.0 yards per reception, joining Dennis Pitta from the year prior. Doyle now has direct competition from Eric Ebron. On the plus side, Doyle may get Luck back under center, from whom he caught 59-of-75 targets (78.7 percent) in 2016 for 584 yards and five touchdowns.
Who Hasn’t Depended on the Red Zone?
| Player | ReTD | >RZTD | % | RZ Tgt% | Avg. ReTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Anderson | 9 | 8 | 88.9% | 7.3% | 37.9 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 8 | 7 | 87.5% | 11.3% | 41.3 |
| Josh Gordon | 15 | 13 | 86.7% | 9.0% | 45.7 |
| Kenny Stills | 26 | 21 | 80.8% | 6.8% | 38.2 |
| Tyrell Williams | 10 | 8 | 80.0% | 14.9% | 35.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 13 | 10 | 76.9% | 9.0% | 41.3 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 8 | 6 | 75.0% | 9.7% | 48.8 |
| DeSean Jackson | 48 | 36 | 75.0% | 8.9% | 43.2 |
| Ted Ginn | 29 | 21 | 72.4% | 5.8% | 32.3 |
| Amari Cooper | 18 | 13 | 72.2% | 8.1% | 36.9 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 34 | 23 | 67.6% | 9.1% | 35.9 |
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 6 | 66.7% | 7.3% | 32.7 |
| Nelson Agholor | 11 | 7 | 63.6% | 18.3% | 32.1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 27 | 17 | 63.0% | 8.6% | 33.6 |
| Albert Wilson | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 13.1% | 28.6 |
| Jaron Brown | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 14.7% | 23.0 |
| Mike Wallace | 57 | 31 | 54.4% | 10.6% | 29.9 |
| Julio Jones | 43 | 23 | 53.5% | 10.4% | 28.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 36 | 19 | 52.8% | 9.9% | 22.6 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 19 | 10 | 52.6% | 11.7% | 19.7 |
| Sammy Watkins | 25 | 13 | 52.0% | 8.7% | 22.8 |
| Torrey Smith | 39 | 20 | 51.3% | 10.5% | 27.2 |
| Michael Crabtree | 51 | 26 | 51.0% | 10.3% | 20.0 |
These are the active fantasy-relevant pass catchers with more than five career touchdowns who have scored more than half of their career touchdowns from outside the red zone. Most of these names should be on your target list for Best Ball formats as you can just soak in the splash production when it comes while riding out uneven waves if you don’t like to roster this archetype of player in weekly leagues. We won’t touch on everyone here completely as there’s a lot of ground to cover. I’ve already touched on Hill when talking about the Chiefs last week and Stills, Jackson and Lockett back in March as early offseason values at their position, so we’ll save some space by glossing over them here.
Anderson has established himself as one the league’s best deep threats, scoring eight of his nine touchdowns over the past two seasons from outside the red zone. Anderson’s “shortest” touchdown in the league has come from 18 yards out. While Josh McCown was healthy through 12 weeks, Anderson was the WR14 in scoring, ranking 13th among all wide receivers in yardage and tied for fourth in touchdown receptions. Only Russell Wilson (14) and Alex Smith (13) threw more touchdowns from outside the red zone last year than McCown’s 12. Even if Anderson has more sporadic scoring given another target in the rotation with Quincy Enunwa returning and Sam Darnold inevitably taking over, Anderson is a sound buy in the WR3 portion of drafts. He still may face league discipline but has cleared all potential charges he faced this offseason from his litany of off-field incidents.
Josh Gordon has had limited red-zone production throughout his career largely by being attached to poor teams that don’t frequent that area, but his big-play scoring upside of averaging 45.7 yards per touchdown catch is a strong pairing with Tyrod Taylor. 45.1 percent of Taylor’s passing touchdowns over the past three years have come from outside the red zone, the highest rate in the league over that stretch. When Taylor had a true lid-lifter in Sammy Watkins in 2015-2016, 20 of his 37 touchdowns through the air came from outside the red zone.
Hopkins isn’t thought of a downfield, speed type like many of the names here, but he is one of the most underrated vertical receivers given his ball skills in contested situations. Even in a year when Hopkins scored seven touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line -- after scoring just seven times from that area over his first four seasons -- Hopkins scored six times from 25 yards out or further which trailed only Tyreek Hill. Deshaun Watson led the league in rate of throws 15-plus yards downfield during his six-start sample (25.9 percent).
Watkins had seven red-zone touchdowns a year ago after catching just five during his three seasons in Buffalo. This reminds us what we highlighted in the open: short scores are all about team and player opportunity. Brandin Cooks is Watkins’ direct replacement on the Rams, but Cooks doesn’t have the size that Watkins has to project such a jump in short-yardage situations. We covered Cooks heading to Los Angeles when he was traded, and not much has changed with how I feel about his new home being a worse landing spot. Just four of Jared Goff’s 28 passing touchdowns a year ago were on throws 15-yards or further downfield, and Goff was 25th in the league in pass attempt percentage (17.8 percent) on such throws.
Julio and his lack of scoring prowess is well documented, but his three touchdowns last year were just silly, even for him. Already an underachieving touchdown scorer, Jones converted just 3.4 percent of his receptions into scores – the lowest rate of his career – but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. Jones doubled his red-zone targets in 2018 (18) over his previous season but managed to reel in just five of those looks (27.8 percent) after catching 55.1 percent of this red-zone targets over his career prior. Even if the expected rising tide gets Jones back into the 6-8 touchdown range, that goes a long way with the type of yardage he posts yearly.
Hilton has capped out his touchdown totals, failing to score more than seven times in a season because he hasn’t been used near the goal line, scoring just 11 times in the red zone over six seasons in the league. All four of Hilton’s TDs a year ago came from 40 yards or further. Since entering the league in 2012, Hilton’s 15 touchdown receptions of 40 yards or further are tied for the most in the league. The last time that Hilton played with Andrew Luck, he led the league in receiving yardage. Luck’s availability is key for Hilton reclaiming WR1 relevance as he has been a top-30 scoring receiver in just 8-of-26 career games played without Luck.
Cooper made a stride forward last year, scoring three times inside the 10-yard line, the first three scores from that area of the field through three seasons. He still added four touchdowns of 38 yards or longer. 13 of Cooper’s 18 career scores have come from outside of the 25-yard line. With the addition of Martavis Bryant, Cooper was set up to have his most diverse season in usage yet, but a rumored suspension for Bryant may revert Cooper to being forced as the sole lid-lifting option in Oakland once again.
Agholor reached 60 yards receiving in just four games and had just four games with more than four receptions. 25.6 percent of his scoring output stemmed from touchdowns, the fourth-highest rate for all wideouts to finish top 30 in overall scoring. That dependency makes him a flimsy bet given Mike Wallace is an upgrade on Torrey Smith, and the Eagles may lose a touch of offensive efficiency and passing touchdown production in bulk naturally.
Ginn posted a career-high 75.7 percent catch rate after catching just 51.7 percent of his previous-career targets in his first season with Drew Brees. Ginn had double-digit PPR points in 7-of-15 games last year on a New Orleans team that was uncharacteristically low volume through the air and is due for a passing touchdown spike. He’s still undervalued in leagues where you can push his low-scoring weeks to the wayside.
If you’re looking for the deepest of cuts here, Jaron Brown very quietly inked a 2-year, $5.5M contract with Seattle. Brown never reached 500 yards receiving through five years in Arizona, but as mentioned, Russell Wilson led the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns from outside the red zone a year ago and had the fourth-most completions (50) on throws 15 yards or further downfield. If Tyler Lockett keeps up his meandering production or newly signed Brandon Marshall isn’t an answer at all, Brown may fall into a role that is good for a few spike weeks from a player that nobody wants.
Line ‘em up, Knock ‘em Down
| Player | RuTD | 1&2RuTD | % | Avg. RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tolbert | 34 | 25 | 73.5% | 2.7 |
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 12 | 66.7% | 7.7 |
| Latavius Murray | 28 | 17 | 60.7% | 8.3 |
| David Johnson | 24 | 14 | 58.3% | 8.8 |
| Mike Gillislee | 16 | 9 | 56.3% | 12.3 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 19.9 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 49 | 27 | 55.1% | 8.8 |
| Terrance West | 11 | 6 | 54.5% | 4.5 |
| Lamar Miller | 27 | 14 | 51.9% | 11.6 |
| Todd Gurley | 29 | 15 | 51.7% | 8.8 |
62.4 percent of all rushing touchdowns over the past 20 years have been scored from 5 yards and in, and 43.5 percent have been scored from the one- or the two-yard line. The list of backs that have tacked on the highest rate of rushing scores from one and two yards out is about what you’d expect. For guys like Tolbert, Stewart, Gillislee, West and Murray, their inclusion here is expected since they are largely one-dimensional players that have played specific short-yardage roles.
Nobody has been a been more useful goal-line back over the past two seasons than Latavius Murray. He has 13 rushing touchdowns in that span from within two yards out, the most in the league while Murray’s 25 attempts from that area rank second. If you’re someone looking for a reason as to why Dalvin Cook may run into trouble matching his draft cost, Murray remaining a goal-line presence is one of the ways to get there outside of another Cook injury.
For some of these backs, cashing in so many scores where the odds are the highest is more of a testament to their offense and not a knock on those being incapable of creating their own scores from longer distances. One example is how last year impacted Todd Gurley’s career marks in this area. Previously playing on teams that failed to set up its backs with many short-scoring opportunities, Gurley led the league with 14 rushing attempts from two yards or closer after accruing 12 such attempts over his first two seasons.
Gordon has been a bit of a quantity over quality type of player over the past two seasons, and his opportunity inside the 5-yard line has been near the best in the league, ranking fourth in each of the past two seasons in touches from that area of the field. 12 of Gordon’s career 18 rushing scores have come from one or two yards out.
The last time that we saw David Johnson for a full season, he scored 20 touchdowns with 16 of them on the ground and 10 from two yards or closer. Even in a good offense, that type of opportunity is hard to replicate, but Johnson finds himself returning to a significantly worse offense than the one he was on in 2016. That year, Arizona had 41 drives end inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, which ranked third in the league. Last year, Arizona had 18 such drives, which was dead last. Johnson is still cemented into high-usage that comes along with receiving prowess, but his true value likely comes from PPR formats this season over being the player we saw score 12 and 20 times over his first two seasons in the league.
Fournette certainly was aided by the Jaguars leading the league in rushing plays inside the 5-yard line, but he showed big-play, scoring upside as he had back-to back weeks with a 90-yard score and a 75-yard one, before his explosion was sapped by injuries over the back half of the season. Fournette was injured in a Week 6 game in which he had that 75-yard jaunt, then missed nearly a month of action, returning to rush for just 3.2 yards per carry down the stretch.
Miller was once an exciting big-play commodity that has turned into a pedestrian fantasy pumpkin since joining the Texans. Miller has eight rushing touchdowns over two years in Houston, with the longest coming from 4 yards out and six from two yards or closer.
You’ve probably noticed that nearly all of the top-shelf running backs in fantasy drafts have popped up in either bucket with the exception of Le’Veon Bell. Bell hasn’t quite been on the Julio Jones trajectory for touchdown failure, but he also hasn’t come close to flirting with a monster-touchdown campaign like we’ve seen already from Gurley and Johnson. That’s because Bell has yet to be in an offensive climate that has provided him bunny opportunities to reach the paint, despite how good the Pittsburgh offense has been. Bell isn’t a back who has ripped off a ton of longer touchdowns, scoring just 10 times out of 35 rushing scores from longer than five yards out. He’s needed those touchdown-coaxing touches and just hasn’t been getting them since his rookie season.
Le’Veon Bell Touches Inside of the 5-yard Line
| Year | Touches | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 16 | 2 |
| 2014 | 8 | 21 |
| 2015 | 3 | 61 |
| 2016 | 6 | 32 |
| 2017 | 8 | 13 |
Over the past two seasons, the Steelers have ranked 23rd and 32nd in run rate on plays inside the 5-yard line. Bell has ranked first or second in yards from scrimmage per game in each of the past four seasons, so if the Steelers finally set him up for more scores and give him the ball in those spots, he’ll be even more of a fantasy goliath.
Breakaway Runners
| Player | RuTD | >5 RuTD | % | Avg. RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | 32.2 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | 20.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 6 | 75.0% | 18.4 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 8.7 |
| Dion Lewis | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | 7.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 10.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 10 | 6 | 60.0% | 19.5 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 5.4 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 21.6 |
| Charcandrick West | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 12.6 |
| Jay Ajayi | 11 | 6 | 54.5% | 17.6 |
| LeSean McCoy | 66 | 35 | 53.0% | 15.6 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 21 | 11 | 52.4% | 11.7 |
| Jamaal Charles | 43 | 22 | 51.2% | 21.1 |
Scoring on the ground from distance is where you really see the sample sizes evaporate. I’d anticipate many of the light sample sizes listed above to get smoothed out and guys like Collins, Kamara, Ajayi, Drake, McKinnon and one of Henry or Lewis are now in roles where they can get more opportunities near the goal line than they have thus far through their careers.
But one player with a large sample of touchdown output coming on his own merit is LeSean McCoy. Since he entered the league in 2009, McCoy leads the league in touchdown runs of 20 yards or further with 19, and three of his six rushing scores a year ago were of that variety. McCoy has had multiple touchdown runs of 20 plus yards in all three of his seasons in Buffalo. That breakaway ability will be needed likely more than ever because McCoy’s offensive line is potentially the worst he’s had in his career, the loss of a running quarterback hurts him, and just overall, Buffalo doesn’t project to score a ton of points outside of what McCoy provides.
Kamara was the league’s most explosive back through the air and on the ground last season, so it’s not surprising to see him here. In fact, Kamara joined an elite group of backs to score at least five times on the ground and through the air while averaging over 10 yards per touchdown in each area.
| Year | Player | ReTD | RuTD | Avg. ReTD | Avg. RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara | 5 | 8 | 17.6 | 18.4 |
| 2014 | Jamaal Charles | 5 | 9 | 14.6 | 19.4 |
| 2008 | Brian Westbrook | 5 | 9 | 10.8 | 12.4 |
| 2007 | Brian Westbrook | 5 | 7 | 25.6 | 10.6 |
| 2003 | Ahman Green | 5 | 15 | 12.4 | 20.5 |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk | 9 | 12 | 13.9 | 15.1 |
While maintaining that type of long-range scoring is difficult, the names listed above were all the type of do-it-all backs that Kamara profiles as. He also has an inline to more short-yardage work with Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension and was already supplanting Ingram as a drive finisher on the ground to end last season. Over the final five games of 2017, Kamara out-carried Ingram 7-to-1 inside the 10-yard line.
Drake is a polarizing player but has shown legit potential as a runner. Drake led all running backs in yards after contact (4.3 yards per carry) in 2017, which was necessary since the Dolphins ranked dead last in yards created before contact for their backs (0.60 yards). I’ve talked about Miami having a franchise-worst rushing touchdown season a year ago as well as their minuscule opportunity in that area of the field. If Drake can establish that his end of the season run in 2017 was no fluke and can be a lead back, the addition of short scores will go along since he has shown home run abilities as a runner. Three of Drake’s five rushing touchdowns have come from 42 yards out or further.
I’m far more interested in the Tennessee passing game given their costs this offseason, but Dion Lewis versus Derrick Henry is a backfield many have their eyes on. Both have shown upside as not needing to rely on bunny opportunities. Lewis has needed the offense to get a little closer to the doorstep, however, as nine of his 10 career rushing scores have come from single-digit yardage. Henry had just 10 rushing opportunities inside the 5-yard line over the past two years compared to 18 for DeMarco Murray and is projected to inherit many of those opportunities given his profile, but Henry isn’t just a battering ram; he has potential to be an electric player. Four of his 10 rushing scores have been from double-digit yardage, while Henry had three scores of 66-plus yards rushing and receiving a year ago.
Jerick McKinnon is another hot-button back since he has only shared backfields thus far through his career. McKinnon has just eight career rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line as he’s surrendered those opportunities to Matt Asiata and Latavius Murray. But the 49ers don’t have much experience behind McKinnon in that area of the field as Matt Breida only had one carry inside the 5 as a rookie. If McKinnon does get those carries, the sky is the limit. McKinnon has already shown the ability to score from distance with six of his career 12 rushing touchdowns coming from double-digit yardage.
Ajayi didn’t get a single touch inside the 5-yard line a year ago on either the Eagles or Dolphins, something we’d expect to definitely change this season with the loss of LeGarrette Blount. But Ajayi is an example of how risky it can be to solely rely on big plays to find the end zone. Ajayi has scored just three times over his past 26 games including the postseason, and his two touchdowns with the Eagles last year came from 46 and 17 yards out.
Thompson is the one really concerning player listed here because it’s hard to find more short-yardage touches for him, leaving him as a volatile asset. For his career, Thompson has just two targets and three carries inside the 5-yard line. Last year, he posted a career-high six touchdowns, with three coming from outside the red zone.
