Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.
Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com
Risers:
Corey Coleman, WR CLE
This week, the most talented wide receiver on the Browns roster appeared in his third game of the season. After missing the majority of the season with a hand injury, second-year WR Corey Coleman was active for the first time since Week Two. Coleman was coming off a promising rookie season, one in which he also dealt with injuries and missed time. While the team needed him back in action, it was not the ideal matchup, facing the league’s best defense from Jacksonville. The Jaguars had only allowed one receiver to exceed 70 yards all season, but Coleman added to that as he caught six of his team-high 11 targets for 80 yards. Coleman was immediately treated as his team’s top option and should remain that for the rest of the season, and even into the 2018 season.
Coleman’s production this season has obviously been hindered by the hand injury, but he did post a WR14 game in Week One and is the WR24 for this week, entering Monday Night Football. This time last season, dynasty owners began to highly value Coleman as he hit a peak dynasty ADP of 24 last December. His current mark of 60 overall is the lowest since he entered the league, but that will surely trend back in a positive direction now that he’s healthy.
Samaje Perine, RB WAS
It has been a dynasty value roller coaster for rookie RB Samaje Perine in his short time in the league. Once he was drafted by the Redskins, dynasty owners began to chase him and his value quickly climbed. He was viewed as the clear favorite to win the starting job away from RB Rob Kelley. Once that didn’t happen, his dynasty value tumbled just as fast as it had risen. Kelley has battled injuries all season, and when he was healthy, Perine was even a game day inactive less than a month ago. Since then though, Kelley suffered a season-ending injury and the Skins have now lost breakout RB Chris Thompson for the season with a broken leg. This is frustrating for Washington and Thompson owners, but will provide a huge opportunity for the rookie from Oklahoma moving forward as the schedule is very much in his favor.
Perine, playing exclusively as part of a committee back, hasn’t flashed this season, finishing as RB38, RB51, RB69 and RB18 before being sent to the sidelines once Kelley was healthy. He’s been trending in the right direction over the past three games though, finishing as RB65, RB40 and is currently the RB6 on the week, essentially locked in to his first RB1 finish of his career. Perine’s ADP reflects those value ups and downs I mentioned earlier. In February, he entered with an ADP of 95 even before we knew where he would land in the NFL Draft. By June, he climbed to 72 when those expectations were in full force. His current November ADP of 141 is the lowest of his short career, but that should change in the coming weeks.
Corey Clement, RB PHI
This time, we’re digging a little deeper. The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league this season and QB Carson Wentz has made use of so many components in that offense. Five different running backs have scored a touchdown for the Eagles already and undrafted rookie RB Corey Clement already has four of them, along with two more as a receiver. Clement’s usage has been difficult to project, considering the team has employed a full committee in nearly every game and then recently added RB Jay Ajayi at the trade deadline. Since that time though, Clement has been energized, with RB Wendell Smallwood being demoted. Clement finished as the RB2 in Week Nine, thanks to a trio of touchdowns on 13 touches. Even with this huge production, fantasy players didn’t seem to trust the “fluky” play. That may have changed after Week 11 when Clement found the end zone again and led the Eagles backs in fantasy production.
The bad news is Clement was third on the team with six carries, behind RB LeGarrette Blount (13) and Ajayi (7). The good news is Clement is still very inexpensive to acquire and may even be on your league’s waiver wire. Clement debuted with a dynasty of 192 back in February, but has settled in near the bottom of the data, currently resting at 228 overall. With Blount’s below average play as of late, it is easy to see a path for increased touches, and therefore increased value, for Clement.
Fallers:
Dez Bryant, WR DAL
If you followed the narratives throughout the off-season and into the pre-season, you may have expected a slow start from Cowboys WR Dez Bryant, who faced an extremely difficult schedule to begin the season. As expected, Bryant finished outside of the top 50 fantasy receivers in two of the first three weeks before settling in with some improved and consistent production, finishing as the WR18, WR16 and WR9 when the Cowboys were at full strength. Since then though, Dallas has been without RB Ezekiel Elliott and OL Tyron Smith and the entire offense has taken a step back as a result. Unfortunately for Bryant, that began even before those two left the lineup. Bryant has finished outside of the top 20 fantasy WRs in each of the past four games and is currently the WR21 for the season. This is clearly not terrible production and Bryant is still a worthy weekly fantasy starter, but for a player still being highly valued due to his name brand, this season has been a disappointment.
Bryant’s dynasty ADP has hit a low point over the past two seasons, falling to 23 overall after being drafted as the eighth overall player in February of 2016. With an ADP at the end of the second round and a step back in production, it is difficult to see Bryant staying inside the top 25 drafted players moving forward. The sell window is closing quickly.
Joe Mixon, RB CIN
As one of the members of the most anticipated rookie class in years, or maybe ever, RB Joe Mixon was constantly under the spotlight this off-season, for more reasons than one. After he landed in Cincinnati though, fantasy players began to clamor to acquire him, expecting him to easily overtake pass-catching RB Giovani Bernard and big man RB Jeremy Hill, both of whom had failed to live up to their draft capital. While the Bengals spent their early draft picks on offense, Mixon and WR John Ross, they let key members of their offensive line and defense walk via free agency. These decisions have had a major impact on the success of the team and individual players.
We’re now 11 weeks into the season and the best weekly fantasy rank Mixon owners can boast is RB15 in Week 10. Outside of that, Mixon has five weeks outside of the top 25 fantasy backs and basically hasn’t been a reliable fantasy option all season. Even with Hill out of the lineup the past two weeks (and moving forward as he landed on the injured reserve list) Mixon’s numbers haven’t significantly improved. His dynasty ADP hasn’t represented the frustration that Mixon owners may have been feeling though. He entered with a February ADP of 60, which dipped to a low of 76 in March, when there were concerns about him even being drafted given his off-field history. Since June though, Mixon’s ADP has consistently been just inside the top 30 overall players, making him a solid third-round dynasty pick.
Amari Cooper, WR OAK
This one stings a bit, as Raiders WR Amari Cooper is one of my personal favorites, but I have to include him on this list as his dynasty value is certainly fading, albeit slowly. Cooper began the season well, finishing as the WR12 in Week One, even after dropping multiple end zone targets and we all know about his Week Seven blow up game against the Chiefs, but outside of those two games, Cooper doesn’t have a single finish inside the top 30 fantasy receivers. Let’s spell this out…his weekly fantasy ranks in chronological order are: WR12, WR54, WR111, WR90, WR89, WR44, WR1, WR31, WR35, WR30 (pending Monday Night Football.)
Like Mixon, Cooper has managed to maintain his value, at least according to our dynasty ADP, even through his struggles. He’s remained inside the top ten overall players since January of 2016, currently ranking ninth overall. With that said, I recently conducted an informal poll on Twitter and seemingly no one expects Cooper to be drafted in the first-round of 2018 startup dynasty drafts. I still have faith in Cooper for the long-term and will use this chance to buy him at a discount, but he has been one of the most frustrating players to own this season, especially considering the lofty price he cost to add to each dynasty team.
