Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.
Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com
Risers:
James Conner, RB PIT
The running back situation of the Pittsburgh Steelers has been a focus of the media and fantasy players all season long, mostly due to the drama surrounding holdout RB Le’Veon Bell, who has stayed away from the team for eight full regular season weeks now. There are rumors and reports that Bell could report to the team later this week after the trade deadline has passed but the longer this lasts, the less necessary Bell seems. This is not to dismiss Bell’s talent but rather to show just how well second-year RB James Conner has played in Bell’s place. In his second game against the Browns this year, Conner totaled 212 yards and two touchdowns, giving him a total of 404 yards and four touchdowns in two games against Cleveland this year. Conner is one of just six players on pace for 400 fantasy points this season and there is a very real possibility that he continues to see extensive playing time even when (if) Bell returns to the team. Conner now has five RB1 performances this year and even if Bell’s return does eat into his playing time, has likely done enough to claim the lead role in the 2019 Steelers’ backfield. With this security, Conner’s dynasty value is on the rise. With other young backs like Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette losing value this season, Conner has a strong case as a top 10 dynasty running back.
D.J. Moore, WR CAR
The Panthers were missing veteran WR Torrey Smith in their game against the typically tough Ravens Defense this week and were “forced” to turn to rookie WR D.J. Moore, who has played sparingly through the first half of the season. Moore entered the game with a 9% target share for the season and only 19 receptions for 191 yards. That quickly changed as Moore was the top receiver for QB Cam Newton, catching five balls for 90 yards, each new season (and career) bests. As a first-round pick in the NFL and the majority of dynasty rookie drafts, a player like Moore doesn’t have to do much to quickly gain dynasty value. That’s what has happened after his huge game against the league’s top defense. Moore set new season-highs in snaps (70%), targets (7) and routes run (26), per Pro Football Focus. Moore’s dynasty ADP has held fairly steady throughout the offseason and now into the regular season with a current rank of WR34 and an overall ADP of 65. If Moore is able to maintain this role even when Smith returns, which is not a given based on all we’ve seen this season, his value will quickly climb even higher.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
Bengals WR Tyler Boyd is single-handedly proving that the third-year WR breakout is still very real. After two disappointing seasons, Boyd has been a major factor in the Cincinnati offense as well as a difference-maker for fantasy players. On Sunday, Boyd posted his fifth top 20 fantasy performance, leading the team with nine receptions for 138 yards and a score. Boyd is now the WR12 over the course of the season, joining his teammate A.J. Green among the group of WR1s. After spending the past 18 months outside of the top 175 players, based on dynasty ADP, Boyd jumped all the way to WR40 and 75 overall and that number is sure to climb even more next month.
Fallers:
Doug Baldwin, WR SEA
The Seattle Seahawks are coming around after a rough start to the season but veteran WR Doug Baldwin is in the midst of a lost season. What makes it worse is that when a 30-year old receiver has a lost season, that’s essentially the end for his value. While he has missed time with an injury, Baldwin has yet to finish as a top 25 fantasy receiver in any game this season. As a result, his dynasty value has already fallen from an offseason ADP rank of 34 overall down to 48 overall and is sure to fall further. What is perhaps the most concerning is Baldwin’s usage. Again, his missed games due to injury skew his seasonal totals but he’s only led the team in targets twice in five games, routinely drawing fewer looks than WR Tyler Lockett.
Jameis Winston, QB TB
This one is pretty obvious. Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston took over for veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the second half of the Week Four game and followed that up with a pair of QB1 games. Against the Bengals on Sunday, Winston continued his trend of multiple costly mistakes, throwing four interceptions before Fitzpatrick returned the favor and replaced him in the second half. The veteran led a comeback and nearly won the game and we would later find out that Fitzpatrick had been named the team’s Week Nine starter. This has left many questioning Winston’s long-term role with the team or even in the league in general. It seems to be a long shot but this week’s trade deadline just got a bit more interesting. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Winston before. Players who offer fantasy owners plenty of points but are always in danger of losing their jobs. We saw it just last week as Jaguars QB Blake Bortles was benched and some have compared Winston to former QB Jay Cutler.
Jordan Reed, TE WAS
What a strange season for Redskins TE Jordan Reed. Most years, fantasy players are pouring one out for Reed, the typically high-scoring tight end who always seems to suffer a season-ending injury. This year is the complete opposite. Reed has been totally healthy through nearly two months of the season (known on wood) but just isn’t putting up fantasy points. Reed is on pace for the worst fantasy scoring season of his career, averaging just over nine fantasy points per game. Reed has just one top 10 fantasy game this season despite many of the top tight ends missing time with injuries. Reed’s dynasty ADP was already in the cellar due to his injury concerns and even though he is healthy, he’s not able to regain any value, currently sitting with an ADP of 105 overall, good for the TE10 spot.
