With the fantasy playoffs just a few weeks away it’s important to pay attention to detail and make sure you’re optimizing your roster, even your bench as you just don’t know who you’ll need, and when. I know it’s not IDP, but my No.1 ranked team in one league has lost Keenan Allen and Julian Edelman in recent weeks, but thankfully I’d acted in previous weeks to grab Nate Washington and Kamar Aiken from the waivers, and I’d kept hold of a now resurgent Davante Adams. At least I have a fighting chance with those guys rather than the scrubs still sitting on waivers, but the point remains - careful roster management and picking up talent when you see it, even as a backup, pays dividends.
Week 10 Observations
Shea McClellin returned as the Bears middle linebacker last week, playing 54-of-64 snaps and recording eight total tackles against a Rams team that hasn’t been a favorable matchup for opposing linebackers. McClellin was an every-down player before his injury and looks likely to resume that role now he’s healthy. The knock on effect is that Christian Jones steps back into playing only in base formations, and will only see 50-65 percent of snaps on a weekly basis, shredding his already marginal fantasy value… Antrel Rolle is three games into his return from injury, but has only averaged four total tackles a game. His years as a DB1 look over, and he should be benched, if not outright dropped in all formats… Mark Barron continues to be a fantasy monster for owners thanks to playing as the Rams weakside linebacker, but continuing to be classed as a safety. Barron may have only had 13 total tackles in the last two weeks, but that’s his floor. In the prior two games to that he had 26 total tackles, and should be considered a top-four fantasy DB every single week (the others being Reshad Jones, Tyrann Mathieu and Corey Graham)… With DeAndre Levy now on the Lions had decided to go with Josh Bynes as their every-down linebacker over Stephon Tulloch, but now Tahir Whitehead has been handed the starting WLB gig, AND the every-down linebacker role. Whitehead made the most of his opportunity, recording eight total tackles (seven solo) and a sack. He’s a better fantasy bet than Bynes, having given us an idea of his scoring capabilities last season, but is still no more than a top-end LB3 who will have some LB2 weeks… Both Green Bay safeties had decent games, but it was Ha Ha Clinton-Dix who excelled for his fantasy owners, picking off Matt Stafford once, and adding 11 total tackles (nine solo). Morgan Burnett had eight total tackles, but similar to the week before, half were assisted… The Panther defense only played 47 snaps last week, which limited the upside of all their defenders, but Luke Kuechly still managed eight total tackles and a forced fumble… Avery Williamson is playing well as the Titans every-down ‘backer, leading all linebackers in tackles in Week 10 with 14 (seven solo), and 0.5 sacks. Keep an eye on him as a LB2 for the rest of the season… Alongside him Wesley Woodyard has had several decent displays now, averaging 8.5 total tackles a game over the last six weeks, despite being limited to a two-down role. I can’t see how Woodyard earns significantly more playing time at the expense of Williamson, or OLBs Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo, which caps his fantasy value at low-end LB2… Heading into the Jags @ Ravens clash there were big hopes of some bumper tackle totals and Telvin Smith (12), Paul Posluszny (10), C.J. Mosely (8) and Daryl Smith (5) all complied to varying degrees. The Jags pairing are top-end LB1 options and will remain so, while Mosely should no longer be included in the LB1 mix. The Ravens duo is more in the region of solid LB2s… Sean Lee missed Week 10 because of a concussion, but has been cleared to return in Week 11. His owners will be acutely aware of his fragility and should be making sure they have suitable backups in case he is forced to miss further games for other ailments during the fantasy playoffs. Anthony Hitchens replaced him as Dallas’ three-down WLB, but his four missed tackles suggest fantasy gamers should look elsewhere for a Lee-replacement if possible… Barry Church is quietly having a pretty solid season, and his 11 total tackles last week were his second double-digit tackle game in three weeks. Church has averaged 8.1 total tackles a game this year, and while he lacks big play upside, is showing he has a high tackle floor… Lavonte David has his best fantasy game of the season, posting 12 total tackles and a sack. However, as has been David’s problem all year, a high percentage of his tackles were assisted (seven last week). Of the 81 total tackles David has this season, 40 are assisted, which is most IDP scoring systems is worth half a solo tackle, which is killing his fantasy value, and preventing him from being a top-end LB1. I’m nudging David down into my second tier of LB1s as a result… Reshad Jones continues to play at an elite level, recording his third interception in five games last week, and his eighth game of the season with at least nine total tackles (he had seven in the other!). He’s a truly elite fantasy option this season… Ryan Shazier may have had a sack against the Browns, but he only played 51-of-70 snaps. Nothing to worry about yet, but this is a situation to monitor, as if he sees his role reduced, Shazier drops to a borderline LB2/3… Steelers CB Antwon Blake has been a tackle machine all year, but had a quiet game last week. Why? All the attention was on William Gay instead who had seven solo tackles, his highest tackle total of the year… Former Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith continues to score well in Oakland, recording nine total tackles last week. He’s still a borderline LB1… Interestingly Brandon Marshall out-snapped Danny Trevathan 61 vs 55 last week, after Trevathan had out-snapped him 73 vs 69 the week before. It’s not an ideal situation and takes the top of the value of both players while we figure out who is the more productive of the two… The assisted tackles were being doled out by the bucket load in the NFC West battle between Seattle and Arizona as the Seahawks were swarming. Bobby Wagner had 11 total tackles, of which seven were assisted, while Kam Chancellor totaled 19 tackles, and 12 were considered to be assisted. K.J. Wright posted nine total tackles, but five were assisted… Vontaze Burfict has yet to move beyond a two-down role for Cincy yet, although it is expected. He played 35-of-63 snaps last week.
Week 10 Pass Rushers
Mario Williams only played nine snaps on Thursday against the Jets due to an illness. Williams started the game but was unable to even finish the first quarter, and then was absent from the sidelines. He is expected to play in Week 11 however, although his current form is not encouraging… His Bills teammate, Jerry Hughes, had another decent game, albeit on without a sack. His one hit and six hurries comes off the back of two sacks and five hurries the week before, so Hughes is solidifying himself as a low-end DL2 with upside… The Jets duo of Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson were more effective, combing for three sacks, two hits and three hurries, with Wilkerson the more productive of the two, although both remain borderline DL1/2s… Robert Quinn was another top fantasy end who only played a handful of snaps last week (15) and he is still not fully recovered from a lingering knee injury that has now cost him Week 9. Keep a close eye on Quinn’s status in practice as it’s tough to plug him into your lineup as a DL1 based on his health the last few weeks… After four sacks in his first five games, Ziggy Ansah only has one in his last four. Before you bench him though, note that he had three hits last week, and actually has nine hits and 14 hurries, in addition to that sole sack, over his last four games… There continue to be sacks to be had against the Jags offensive line, and last week it was Elvis Dumervil who took advantage to the tune of two sacks and six hurries. He’s not a viable starter on a weekly basis as long as he is categorized as a linebacker for fantasy purposes though… A second sackless game for Greg Hardy as a Cowboy, but he was still a disruptive presence, causing a hit and three hurries. Despite numerous off-field transgressions, Hardy remains one of the league’s top pass rushers and will be an impact player for his fantasy owners in the playoffs… Three straight weeks without a sack won’t please owners of Cameron Jordan, but don’t bench him. He’s had two hits and 12 hurries over that span, and continues to earn positive grades on a weekly basis from ProFootballFocus… The Dolphins really are a different team since the coaching change, and one of the main differences is the play of the defensive line. This week it was Ndamukong Suh who shone, with a sack and eight total tackles (seven solo). Suh is playing some lights out football right now, having racked up four sacks, seven hits and 11 hurries in his last four games… Miami teammate Olivier Vernon is hoping to register some big plays of his own, after he notched up six quarterback hits against Philadelphia. Vernon hasn’t rewarded his fantasy owners yet, despite his improved play, but unfortunately the Dolphins face the Cowboys and Jets in the next two weeks, two of the three toughest possible matchups for defensive ends… After some quieter weeks both Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward got to the opposing quarterback this week, with Heyward adding five hurries and Tuitt just the one. I’ll continue to have both as high floor DL2s that have varying production… He may have recorded a sack, but Everson Griffen isn’t living up to the expectations set for him heading into the year after an excellent 2014. His lower tackle totals make him a boom-or-bust weekly play... Raiders’ rookie Mario Edwards Jr has been making a good impression ever since he was handed a starting gig. This week he recorded 11 total tackles (eight solo) and a sack. More of a run stuffer than a pass rusher, Edwards should be thought of as a poor man’s Calais Campbell. He doesn’t have double-digit sack upside, but is flashing fantasy appeal… Justin Houston’s five game stretch with only a single sack is long forgotten after recording his second consecutive week with two. He also added two hits and eight hurries in his best pass rushing display of the year. His display upstaged the league’s best defense (well, perhaps Peyton Manning did that), as their premium pass rusher, Von Miller, managed just a single sack, two hits and a hurry… Rob Ninkovich is still an integral part of the Patriots defense. He’s played over 80 percent of snaps in each of the last five games, and out-snapped league sack-leader Chandler Jones last week 70 to 69. Both players had a sack, although Ninkovich has three hurries to Jones’ two… Jason Pierre-Paul continues to show he is primed for a big fantasy score against an easier opponent, generating one hit and seven hurries against the stingy Patriots O-Line. JPP should be in your line-up following his bye week… The Seahawks pass rush this year is plain nasty. Despite registering a single sack between them against Arizona, Cliff Avril (one sack, two hits, five hurries) and Michael Bennett (three hits, five hurries) but Carson Palmer in the dirt regularly. Both players are DL2 for me, but my preference is for Bennett as he seems to convert more of his pressure into fantasy points… The Bengals – Texans game had a surprise result as the unbeaten Bengals were turned over, but it may have had something to with the fact Carlos Dunlap (two hurries) and Geno Atkins (four hurries) weren’t as effective as usual… On the other side of the matchup J.J. Watt was his usual self, recording a sack, a hit and two hurries.
Guys I Like
Rob Ninkovich v Bills
This is as much about perception as it is about matchup. Ninkovich took a tumble down rankings after playing just 39-of-57 snaps in Week 3, while Jabaal Sheard was gaining traction in the New England schemes, but Ninkovich has retained his role as a key contributor and starter. He’s a top-end DL2 this week.
Von Miller vs Bears
The Bears have been one of the best matchups for pass rusher this season, and the Broncos have been the league’s top pass rushing unit. That’s a very enticing proposition for owners of Von Miller, as although he only has five sacks this season, his 12 hits (third highest in the league) and 32 hurries (fifth highest) show he’s one of the league’s elite.
Dont’a Hightower vs Bills
Hightower has rocketed up rankings in recent weeks as people finally catch on to the fact that he’s been playing at a LB1 level all season. Aside from an injury shortened Week 3, and a freak statistical game in Week 9, Hightower has been an elite performer, including against Buffalo in their first meeting, when he charted 12 total tackles and half a sack. I’m expecting similar numbers again this week in one of the better matchups for linebackers.
James Laurinaitis vs Ravens
I’ve been pretty clear about my opinion on Laurinaitis’ fantasy value this season, especially as he’s been an assisted tackle monster, but a game against the No.1 matchup for linebackers is too good to pass up. Laurinaitis jumps from a top LB3 to an upside LB2 this week.
Mark Barron vs Ravens
Barron has a shot to be the top scoring fantasy safety this week. As we’ve mentioned before, he’s playing as the Rams weakside linebacker, and as discussed above, the Ravens are the top matchup for fantasy linebackers…
Dashon Goldson vs Panthers
Carolina has been a surprisingly good matchup for opposing safeties, ranking as a top-ten matchup, and Goldson continues to be a chronically underrated fantasy asset. 51 total tackles and a pick-six in the last five games show just how productive Goldson can be, and he’ll threaten DB1 status again this week.
Guys I Don’t Like
Robert Quinn vs Ravens
I’d consider benching Quinn this week unless we see him as a full participant in practice this week. At this stage of the season you simply cannot take a low score from an elite player, or risk starting someone who plays just a handful of snaps.
Everson Griffen vs Packers
Griffen simply hasn’t looked like the player who ended last year as a top-end DL1. Just 2.5 sacks in his last five games, and no forced or recovered fumbles on the entire season. The Vikings defense is a very tough unit, and Griffen is becoming a cog in the wheel rather than the star piece of the puzzle. You’ve been warned.
Wesley Woodyard vs Jacksonville
This just feels like a trap. It is crunch time in the fantasy season, and a linebacker who is being productive in a limited role heads to one of the league’s best matchups for linebackers. Whenever I own a two-down player scoring double-figure points consistently I want to trade them as quickly as possible, because it simply can’t last. Don’t get cute this week and start Woodyard over a genuine every-down backer.
Sean Lee vs Dolphins
He’s never been the healthiest of linebackers and a history of concussions is worrying, as is a matchup with Miami, who are one of the worst three matchups for fantasy linebackers. If you’ve the depth to replace him this week, do so.
Eric Berry vs Chargers
I hate having to list him here, as he’s one of my favorite players, but Berry simply isn’t scoring enough points consistently to be considered more than a boom-or-bust DB3. Berry does have two interceptions in the last three weeks, but INTs are a difficult to repeat feat, and when weighing up a player’s value their tackle production is key. 11 total tackles over those three games isn’t good enough, so keep Berry one the bench as an emergency backup.
Antrel Rolle vs Broncos
As I mentioned in the observations, Rolle has been a disappointment since his return, and it won’t get any easier against one of the league’s toughest matchups for safeties. There may be a change at quarterback, but if anything I think that will make the Denver offense play even more conservative and keep Osweiler taking checkdowns and keeping the ball away from the Bears safeties.
