Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 18 and beyond. Our player pool is limited with teams resting starters, naturally.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Jared Goff (DET)
Goff isn’t what you might call a screaming regression candidate. He’s more like a regression candidate with a slightly raised voice. Either way, I’m thinking the Regression Reaper will hear his cries in Week 18 against the Vikings.
The Lions, with an outside chance to claim the NFC’s second seed in the postseason, seem bound and determined to play their starters this week. I’m expecting Goff to play a full game here. After a hot stretch of red and green zone passing in the first half of the season, he’s gone cold of late. Goff now has just 11 touchdowns on 39 inside-the-ten pass attempts this season. He has only two scores on his past 14 green zone throws.
The Lions are overall a run-first team in the red zone but have shifted more toward the pass inside the ten yard line over the past month. If that continues against Minnesota — who allowed 259 yards and a touchdown to Goff two weeks ago — Goff has a good chance for multiple scores, something he’s done only once in his past four outings.
Running Back
Joe Mixon (CIN)
A mainstay in this regression-centric space this season, Mixon makes one last appearance as a guy who should have a lot more touchdowns than he has. Mixon through Week 17 leads the NFL in green zone (inside the ten) rushing attempts; he’s second in inside-the-five carries. He has a whole eight TDs to show for it.
No running back has a higher rate of his team’s red zone carries (77 percent) than Mixon. The Same goes for the green zone, where he’s been disastrous for a third straight season. The Bengals keep feeding him in that high-value area though. Who are we to turn up our noses at that sort of scoring potential?
I know. Mixon plays a terrifying Cleveland defense in Week 18, and yes, he had only 56 yards on 13 rushes in Week 1 against these Browns. The Bengals entering Week 18 as whopping six-point favorites suggests no one — including Vegas — expects the Browns to play their starters with nothing to gain ahead of the playoffs. Though the Bengals have been eliminated from postseason contention, Mixon could play and get a solid workload against Cleveland’s second team defense. Maybe the touchdown regression will hit all at once, as it did last season in Mixon’s five-touchdown performance against Carolina.
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Wide Receiver
DJ Chark (CAR)
Here’s something that will make your spine tingle: Chark leads the Panthers with a 29 percent air yards share since Week 12. You’re trembling. You can hardly breathe. I get it.
Since Week 14, only 11 pass catchers have more air yards than Chark, who has become Carolina’s only reliable deep threat. It hasn’t amounted to much statistically with the exception of a Week 16 explosion game (98 yards, two touchdowns) against Green Bay.
Jonathan Mingo heading to IR with a foot injury is a not-insignificant development for Chark going into the season’s final game. Mingo is second on the Panthers in air yards since Week 12. Perhaps Chark soaks up some of those air (prayer) yards in Week 18 against the pass-funnel Bucs defense.
Before you laugh and close this tab, consider this: Bryce Young is second in passing air yards over the past month, trailing only Joe “Better As A Brown” Flacco. Young had the fourth most passing air yards in Week 13 against the Bucs, with a couple close misses on downfield shots. Ole’ Bryce is flinging it, and the speedy Chark should be the guy to benefit in Week 18. Carolina, for whatever it’s worth, is fresh off a 76 percent drop back rate against the Jaguars. Please forget that they scored exactly zero (0) points.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson (DAL)
Ferguson, who remains the Cowboys’ secondary target behind the dominant CeeDee Lamb, has gone from an overperformer in the green zone to an underperformer. The regression has hit too hard, per the analytics.
A mere three pass catchers — Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams — have more inside-the-ten targets than Ferguson this season. Ferguson has just three touchdowns on a dozen green zone looks from Dak Prescott. He has only five scores on 23 red zone targets. Ferguson has found paydirt once over the past seven games. He’s running ice cold.
With a 25 percent red zone target share in an offense that has dropped back to pass on 66 percent of their red zone snaps since Week 12, Ferguson is a not-terrible bet for a touchdown in Week 18 against the down-bad Commanders. Dallas’ 31.5-point team total suggests there will be touchdowns for Jerry’s team.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Jordan Love (GB)
I’d like to tip my cap as furiously as possible to Jordan Love, who beat back the Regression Reaper all season, especially in the green zone (inside the ten). Am I mad that Love — who has frequented this space over the past four months — has 17 touchdowns on 19 green zone completions? No. I’m not mad. I’m fine. Please do not tell the newspaper that I am mad.
Only Patrick Mahomes has more inside-the-ten touchdown passes than Love this season, and he’s done it on a league-leading 50 attempts — 15 more than Love. I only write this to say that we might have to wait until next season for math to do its thing for Love as a green zone passer. He’ll surely come out and throw three short scores this week against the Bears in a must-win game.
I’d like to emphasize that I’m not upset in any way.
Wide Receiver
George Pickens (PIT)
We’re doubling down on Pickens as a negative regression candidate and we’re not hesitating in doing so. Pickens has now Gotten Away With It in back to back games on low volume. This will not do.
Pickens over the past two games has averaged 1.13 fantasy points per route run. That’s slightly higher than the 0.40 fantasy points per route he had averaged before Mason Rudolph took over and turned Pickens into Randy Moss.
Pickens has a hefty 53 percent air yards share in Rudolph’s two starts and has taken a dominant lead as the Steelers’ first-read pass-catching option. His 31 percent target per route run rate is worlds higher than Diontae Johnson’s 23 percent. It shows how much Rudolph has leaned on Pickens over the past couple weeks. Kenny Pickett’s potential return to the Steelers lineup would obviously torpedo Pickens as a fantasy option in Week 18. So it goes.
Darius Slayton (NYG)
Slayton, who doomed me in one of my four fantasy championship week losses, had four catches for 106 yards and a score against the Rams in Week 17. That hurt to write.
You know what comes next: Slayton’s 28 yards per reception over the past two games -- he roasted the Eagles on Christmas Day -- is bound to regress in Week 18 against the Eagles. I guess it might not, since the Eagles’ first-team defense can’t stop anyone through the air and Philly could bench its starters to rest up for the postseason after a nightmarish December.
I would be remiss — and I’m never remiss — if I failed to mention that Slayton has been targeted by Tyrod Taylor on a meager 12 percent of his pass routes over the past two games. He’s not exactly being peppered with targets.
Tight End
Juwan Johnson (NO)
I’ll just come out and say it: Johnson in Week 18 is not going to be targeted on 46 percent of his pass routes, as he was in his Week 17 explosion game against Tampa.
I am a brave truth teller above all else. Anyway, the Bucs have been ripped in the middle of the field over the season’s second half and the Saints took full advantage of that in their Week 17 dominance of Tampa. Johnson, obviously, was the main beneficiary.
Before Sunday, Johnson had never seen more than seven targets in a game. In fact, he had averaged 3.2 targets per game in the NFL before Week 17. His 72 percent route rate against Tampa was solid, and far higher than it has been in 2023. Try not to get over your skis with Johnson if you’re playing in Week 18.
