BMW PGA Championship preview

The European Tour’s flagship event returns to the West Course at Wentworth and what promised to be a stellar field was struck a blow with last week’s news that Rory McIlroy’s rib injury required further rehabilitation.

His withdrawal will lead to questions about the field, but the course will yet again draw most focus as the Wentworth Club continues to revise the 2008 re-design which was widely panned and has already received two revisions.

Always a popular venue with galleries, the difficulties on the course have lead some to suggest a move elsewhere which would be a pity given that the tree-lined fairways of Surrey have become synonymous with the start of the European Tour’s summer of golf.

Early indications are that the course is back to something like full health so hopefully we can concentrate on the golf – and hope for another thrilling conclusion.

Last year Chris Wood blasted a superb tournament record-equalling front nine of 29 to assume a four-shot lead at the turn. He then endured an attritional back nine before hanging on to win by one shot.

The tournament is the first of the new Rolex Series which means it has a €7 million prize fund – a big week for the golfers and a big week, too, for gamers.


The course

In response to those changes made to the course in 2008 (and the changes to the changes which followed) the club brought in European Golf Design, along with a committee that included Paul McGinley, to revive the fortunes of the layout. Every bunker has been rebuilt, with 29 taken out of play to return the playing options lost by their inclusion. Four greens have been fully rebuilt, five partially.

One hole which typifies the alterations is the eighth. The green no longer stands tall as if on stilts, with deep bunkers to the right. It is returned to ground and befits an English course once again. The third has had the fairway bunkers made less penal. They were so deep no-one could reach the green if they found them. It will remain a tough prospect, but at least achievable.

As mentioned above, initial player feedback, including that of defending champion Chris Wood, has been excellent. It will play to a par of 72, with a yardage of 7,284. Wood’s winning total of 9-under-par was higher than in recent years and he believes the field will go lower this week, with improved putting surfaces and an increase in playability tee-to-green.


Past 10 champions, Winning scores and stats

2016 -9 Chris Wood (DD: 48, DA: 7, GIR: 4, Scr: 18, PA: 13, AA: 2)
2015 -21 Byeong-Hun An (DD: 1, DA: 35, GIR: 1, Scr: 1, PA: 11, AA: 2)
2014 -14 Rory McIlroy (DD: 4, DA: 29, GIR: 23, Scr: 21, PA: 7, AA: 2)
2013 -10 Matteo Manassero (DD: 70, DA: 47, GIR: 4, Scr: 14, PA: 36, AA: 34)
2012 -15 Luke Donald (DD: 33, DA: 40, GIR: 12, Scr: 2, PA: 3, AA: 4)
2011 -6 Luke Donald (DD: 55, DA: 23, GIR: 4, Scr: 25, PA: 5, AA: 7)
2010 -6 Simon Khan (DD: 29, DA: 1, GIR: 1, Scr: 34, PA: 54, AA: 7)
2009 -17 Paul Casey (DD: 27, DA: 5, GIR: 11, Scr: 15, PA: 13, AA: 2)
2008 -11 Miguel Angel Jimenez (DD: 38, DA: 8, GIR: 51, Scr: 11, PA: 1, AA: 6)
2007 -8 Anders Hansen (DD: 62, DA: 1, GIR: 2, Scr: 11, PA: 46, AA: 9)

Notes: The last three winners have been ranked 2nd for All-Round game and nine of the ten were top ten for that category. Hitting greens matters: eight of the ten were ranked 12th or better. It is relevant that the last two winners (Wood and An) are on record that their strength is in the 4-5-6-iron range? Beyond mere numbers consider that five of the last eight winners were from the south of England, players who attended the tournament as boys. Manassero also admitted he is inspired by the course because it evokes his hero Seve Ballesteros (indeed he wore a blue jumper and green trousers in honor of him). Course form is often key: nine of the last ten winners (An was a debutant) had been top three at either the 54- or 72-hole stage of the tournament prior to their win.


The Weather

An almost perfect forecast. Thursday should be sunny, a little cloud, with very little wind. But Friday through Sunday should see clear skies and plenty of sunshine. The wind will be up as the weekend progresses, but nothing more than 10 to 12 mph – note, however, that it might change direction on Sunday (from south-east to south-west). The entire week has less than 5% chance of rain.


The Leading Contenders

Henrik Stenson
He’s making his 13th visit to the West Course – will it be lucky? Maybe not because his previous best return is third place in the 2007 HSBC World Match Play and although he was T7 the last time he played this event that is his best effort in 11 tries. He missed four straight cuts ahead of improving to T16 at THE PLAYERS. Bear in mind he will be lauded for his Open win at receptions all week so may hope to ride the wave of good memories (or be distracted).

Justin Rose
A long-time supporter of the tournament even when others were steering clear you also get the sense he might like the return to old ways. Twice a runner-up in the tournament (before the changes in 2007 and after them in 2012), he also led after 36 holes as far back as 2004. Runner-up behind Sergio Garcia in the Masters, but last seen ending his week at TPC Sawgrass with an 80.

Alex Noren
This week will see the Swede make his 11th appearance in the tournament and whilst there have been glimpses of form, he’s mostly found himself treading water. He was T6 in 2008 and T8 in 2015, but otherwise never made the top 20. After his stellar season on the European Tour he arrives fresh from his best form on the PGA Tour: a quarter finalist in the WGC World Match Play, T2 heading into the final round at the Wells Fargo Championship and T10 at THE PLAYERS.

Tyrrell Hatton
The Englishman perfectly fits the profile of English golfer from near London who enjoyed watching golf at Wentworth as a youngster – and who will have family and friends supporting him all week. If his first two event starts didn’t hint as much (T38-T46) his T7 last year did – moreover he was T2 heading into the final round. Had a hot spell through March on the PGA Tour but gone off the boil since and was T41 at THE PLAYERS.

Branden Grace
It’s not quite happening for the South African at the moment. He was T27 at the Masters, T11 at The Heritage, T10 (after being T2 after 54 holes) in the Texas Open, T24 in the Zurich Classic and T48 at THE PLAYERS. Solid stuff, but short of his best. Will the return to Europe help? He was T5 on course debut in 2012 and T11 12 months ago. T24 and T61 in between so he’s always played four rounds.

Thomas Pieters
The big-hitting Belgian’s first two visits to the West Course were startlingly similar: a failure to break par on Thursday (75 in 2014, 72 in 2015), failure to break 80 Friday (81 then 80), early trip home at the weekend. Last year he broke par twice before the weekend to make the cut and eventually finishing T27. Impressed on his Masters debut to finish T4 before missing the cut in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Skipped THE PLAYERS and played at home with mates instead.

Tommy Fleetwood
There is good and there is bad in the Englishman’s record at Wentworth. He’s 4-for-5 and in 2015 a third round 65 helped him to T6, but 12 months later he spent Saturday moving in the other direction due to a horrible 81 which he followed with a 76. A winner in Abu Dhabi, a play-off loser in the Shenzhen International and a solid debut at THE PLAYERS – a good week here would be absolutely no surprise.

Byeong Hun An
Prior to his rookie season on the European Tour, An said the West Course was the one track he was most looking forward to encountering on the Tour and he backed that up with a remarkable victory, shooting 71-64-67-65. A defense of T33 was not a bad effort either. T8 in the Wells Fargo and T5 last week in Dallas to bounce back to form after eight outings without a top 30.

Chris Wood
Last year was far from the first time the tall Englishman had found himself in contention at Wentworth. On debut in 2010 he led heading into the final round before a 77 derailed his challenge and in 2015 he finished T4. He used that experience to blitz the front nine and retain composure when tested on the back nine last year. Warmed up nicely for his defense with T4 in the China Open, opening with a 72 before tearing the course up with rounds of 68-65-68.

Francesco Molinari
Closed out the 2016 season with a win in his home event and then T4 in the DP World Tour Championship, the last time he was seen on the European Tour (WGC and majors excepted). He’s been very solid on the PGA this season, most recently leading the Wells Fargo Championship after 36 holes before ending the week T24 and then pegging T6 at THE PLAYERS. Between 2012 and 2015 he finished between T5 and T9 every year on the West Course, before going T55 last year.

Martin Kaymer
The German is 9-for-10 at Wentworth with eight of those finished T31 or better, and six of them top 20. Promising, but last year’s T7 is his best finishing position and his T5 after 54 holes was the first time he had been top five at the end of any round (and only the third time he’d been in the top ten). Hasn’t missed a cut since the 2016 Valspar Championship, but also hasn’t been in contention since this year’s Honda Classic when T4.

The Next Rung

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Made his West Course debut 12 months ago, which is a handy reminder of how far he has come in such a short space of time. Played all four rounds on that first outing, but never broke 70 as he pegged T47. Was T3 heading into the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T4 after 18 hole at the Masters, but arrives having missed the cut at The Heritage and THE PLAYERS.

Russell Knox
The Scot was T17 and T11 in his 2017 openers in Hawaii (Tournament of Champions and Sony Open) but since then there has been little to cheer: he’s 3-for-9 with just one finish better than T39, a T11 at The Heritage, and he’s missed both his last two cuts. Nor was his course and tournament debut here much to write home about: 75-71 to skip the weekend.

Bernd Wiesberger
It’s never quite happened for the Austrian at the Tour HQ. He’s 4-for-6 and owns two top 20s (T12 in 2013 and T15 last year), but he’s only once been inside the top ten at the end of any round, when T8 after an opening 68 five years ago. What’s without any doubt is that he’s a monster in regular European Tour events, In fact he’s been T7 or better in 10 of his last 12 such starts. Typically struggles more in better fields, as his record here suggests.

Lee Westwood
Back in 2011 Westwood and Luke Donald faced off in a play-off that had more than the tournament title wresting on it – the world number one ranking was up for grabs. Donald won, pinching top spot in the process. Since then Westwood has twice got into contention at the 54-hole stage but faltered both times: T2 in 2013 he ended the week T9, T3 last year he slumped to T15. Last seen shooting a smart opening 70 at THE PLAYERS before ending the week 75-76-75. A course winner, but in the 2000 HSBC World Match Play.

Danny Willett
Life can change very quickly. Twelve months ago he arrived at Wentworth as the new prince of European golf, a few months later he rewarded his caddie and friend Jonathan Smart with a spot playing the Dunhill Links; this week he is split with Smart and his form is in freefall. A Friday 78 saw him leave the Masters early, the same score on the same day ended his week at The Heritage, and a 79 preceded a WD at the end of Thursday at THE PLAYERS. T3 here last year but hard to overlook the recent form.

Ross Fisher
As a local with close connections to the Wentworth Club Fisher fits the bill of a possible winner and his log book on the layout backs that up – or at least it did. He led after 54 holes in 2007 before a final round 84, was second in 2009 and T10 in 2010. Since then he’s 2-for-6 with not one top 30. Four times T6 or better in his last four starts.

Ian Poulter
Has always been honest about his dislike of the condition of the West Course at this time of year so it will be interesting to hear his thoughts on the changes. What is also notable is that when his PGA Tour card was tied up he wasted no time turning to this event, you sense he really did feel he’d been treated well by the European Tour during a tough time in his career. 5-for-13 on the course with a best of T10 in 2012. T2 in THE PLAYERS.

Luke Donald
Through his first ten starts in this tournament his record was stunning: eight times T25 or better, five times in the top three, back-to-back champion in 2011 and 2012. Both the last two years he has found himself T11 at halfway, but has been unable to maintain the pace, drifting to T38 and T27. Second at The Heritage – another favored track – he has since crashed to three consecutive missed cuts.

Shane Lowry
Another for whom the last 12 months have not been kind. An opening 69 here had him T10, ideally placed for a man who had been T2 in 2014 and had four course finishes of T6 or better, right? Well, a Friday 78 saw him miss the cut, a first hint that he was blowing hot and cold. On his next start a third round 65 in the US Open had him leading, but he followed with a final lap 76 and has never quite got over it. Not been in the top ten since.

Matteo Manassero
Since winning this title in 2013 it has all gone wrong for the still youthful (24) Italian. But that was not the first time he contended on the West Course (led after 54 holes in 2011) and his form is coming together nicely. Tee to green solid for 18 months, putted well in Morocco, looked in a happy place at the GolfSixes, some good golf last week in Sicily, loves Wentworth.


Sleeper Picks

Alexander Levy
It’s impossible to ignore a player who relishes contending for titles and arrives fresh from winning the China Open at the end of April. Missed last year but was T12 in 2014 and top 20 again through 36 holes in 2015 before drifting to T52.

Fabrizio Zanotti
This year’s Maybank Championship winner loves tree-lined, parkland venues and has a Wentworth record to prove it: eight starts, five top 25 finishes, T7 this time last year.

Andrew Johnston
When Valderrama regularly hosted the then end-of-season Volvo Masters there was quite a link between players who excelled there and also at Wentworth. Last year ‘Beef’ (a Valderrama winner) opened with 76 for T114 and reversed it to finish with a 67 for T7. First start of the year in Europe.

Soren Kjeldsen
Another who plays both Wentworth and Valderrama well, and has been on the PGA Tour so far this year. Career best tournament finish of third in 2009 and T18 two years ago.

David Horsey
There is promise in his Wentworth record without it ever quite firing. T2 after 36 holes in debut in 2009 (T43), T7 in 2011, T8 after 18 holes in 2014. Likes tree-lined courses, T7 last week in Sicily.

Julien Quesne
A tough start to the season (1-for-6), but he was chipper about his Chinese results at the end of April on Twitter(T31-T18) and he loves the course: T21 in 2012, T8 in 2015 and T4 last year when he gave it a real go in the final round.

Lucas Bjerregaard
On a run of 11-for-12 cuts made and yet in that time not made one top ten. However he did win the GolfSixes earlier this month and it will be fascinating to see how it impacts on his individual results. Two MCs at Wentworth but plays tree-lined tracks well in general.

Pablo Larrazabal
His first four visits to the Tour HQ reaped T48-MC-MC-T65 and then something clicked because he’s since gone: T12-T7-MC-T12. Last three results read: T13-T11-3. Bound to be a popular pick this week.

Jeunghun Wang
The Korean youngster made a promising course debut 12 months ago, carding rounds of 72-73-73-70 to finish T33, a result that came after six weeks of tiring travel (Japan-China-Morocco-Mauritius-Ireland-England) which was also emotional (it included back-to-back wins). Off color since winning in Qatar, but did shoot a second round 66 last time out in China.


Who’s On The Team?

Francesco Molinari’s consistency, both on the course and recently, makes him a given for the official European Tour fantasy game.

The Olympic gold and silver medalists get my vote too – Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson.

Tommy Fleetwood’s tee-to-green game is a wonderful match for the course and he can match or better his T6 two years ago sooner or later – why not this year?

The rest of the team will be revealed in Tuesday’s Playing the Tips feature.


One To Swerve

Danny Willett continues to tailspin and I’m not keen to get back on board this week despite the two course top fives in the past.