The PGA TOUR is on break until the New Year but many fantasy golf leagues are prepping for their season-long drafts.
Big finishes can heavily skew how a season looks for a golfer so I jump through the data to see which golfers should regress, which should improve, and which might have a breakout campaign.
I’m breaking out my top 150 in chunks of 25 so if you missed the first three, here they are:
75. Webb Simpson
Baseline Ranking: 76
1-Year Starts: 17
Notes: Things are trending in the wrong direction for Simpson as he battled injuries for all of 2022. He pegged it just three times in the fall, with nothing better than a T52 at the no-cut CJ CUP. He even missed the cut at Sea Island which is usually an ATM for him. That being said, he’s made it to East Lake in four of the last six seasons so if he can get his body right, he could easily bounce back and shatter his draft position.
74. Mark Hubbard
Baseline Ranking: 75
1-Year Starts: 28
Notes: The 33-year-old had a steady season with a 16-for-22 record before running into some trouble in the fall. He had a freak accident that caused a toe injury and literally limped to the finish line with a DQ at the Houston Open. He became a new dad and had toe surgery to hopefully fix those late-season woes.
73. Brendan Steele
Baseline Ranking: 74
1-Year Starts: 20
Notes: He remains one of the sharpest ball-strikers on TOUR but the flat stick is as shaky as ever. he ranked 187th in strokes gained putting last season and didn’t get any better in the fall (also 187th). There will continue to be courses and/or greens that suit his eye more than others, but there will also be a lot of frustration while tracking his shots on the greens.
72. Sepp Straka
Baseline Ranking: 98
1-Year Starts: 27
Notes: The Georgia Bulldog is coming off a breakout campaign that saw him play his way to East Lake for the first time in his career. Turf trackers may have picked up on the trends of all his big finishes coming on bermudagrass courses. Definitely something to keep in mind when it comes to picking which weeks to start and sit him in 2023.
71. Matthew NeSmith
Baseline Ranking: 69
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: He only gained strokes on approach in 55% of his measured rounds last season which is not in the elite category but interesting when you consider he ranked 30th in SG:Approach per round. That tells us that his good iron rounds are really good, giving him lap-the-field upside which is great for single-round fantasy formats.
70. Adam Svensson
Baseline Ranking: 73
1-Year Starts: 28
Notes: He landed his maiden win this fall. He admitted he was close to hanging it up a few years ago but it’s a good thing he didn’t listen to that little voice in his head at the time. The Canadian gained strokes in all four sub-categories of strokes gained this fall which gives you an idea of the all-around nature of his game.
69. Si Woo Kim
Baseline Ranking: 58
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: The rumor mill suggests that Kim is a hot commodity when it comes to potential LIV Golf poaching. While there is nothing concrete that would indicate he’s leaving, it’s at least one data point you need to consider before investing in Kim for 2023 season-long leagues. The Korean plays a heavy schedule and has produced Top 81 FedExCup seasons in all seven years out on TOUR.
68. Jhonattan Vegas
Baseline Ranking: 62
1-Year Starts: 18
Notes: Vegas had a down year in 2020 but rebounded with eight top 25s last season including a trio of runner-up finishes. He now has 10 career podium finishes. He didn’t play a single event in the fall, and added this message ahead of the Houston Open “Sad to be missing my home week @HouOpenGolf because of a recurrent injury but wishing everyone a great week here in Houston. See you guys next year. " On one hand, he’ll be overlooked in drafts with no starts this fall but on the other hand, there is no real news about the severity of his injury so there is a chance he misses more time or struggles to pick up where he left off.
67. Kevin Kisner
Baseline Ranking: 67
1-Year Starts: 20
Notes: Kisner has reached double digits in missed cuts for two straight seasons. He had nine total missed cuts in the two previous seasons combined. He’s made up for that lack of consistency with big finishes but if those don’t land in 2023 then he becomes far less attractive as a season-long option. He openly talks about how many TOUR venues are too long for him and he’s not getting any longer (averaged 290 yards last year; ranked 171st).
66. Joel Dahmen
Baseline Ranking: 66
1-Year Starts: 25
Notes: He became a PGA TOUR winner in 2021 and backed that up with a steady 19-for-26 campaign. He signed off on a hot streak in the fall, posting top 20s in five of his last six starts including three straight top 10s to end the year. He remains one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR when isolating names that don’t rely on distance (has consistently averaged less than 295 yards off the tee). If he can maintain his fall momentum in 2023 then drafting anytime after 50 would be a steal.
65. Beau Hossler
Baseline Ranking: 90
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: He gained strokes putting in 62% of his measured rounds last season (10th best). He gained on approach just 39% of the time, though. Those names are almost identical as an elite name like Matthew Fitzpatrick, but Fitz laps him off the tee and around-the-green. That’s a roundabout way of saying his potential is through the roof, and he’s not that far away from reaching that potential. Yet, we’ve been asking for a ball-striking improvement for years now and haven’t seen it. That leaves him as a high-risk, high-reward option that lives and dies with the putter. There is enough winning upside here to take a chance in season-long drafts as a possible breakout candidate.
64. Scott Stallings
Baseline Ranking: 56
1-Year Starts: 25
Notes: The 37-year-old made it to East Lake for the first time in his career last season. That was pretty surprising when you consider he’s landed outside the Top 90 FedExCup in each of the previous seven seasons. So, his FedExCup rank suggests he’s a Top 30 player while his baseline stats say he’s closer to 60th, but his longer-term stats say he’s probably around 100th. He’s the type of player I wouldn’t rush to pick in my drafts but would be happy to pick if he fell to me in the later rounds.
63. Chris Kirk
Baseline Ranking: 52
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: The Georgia Bulldog gained strokes tee-to-green in 70 percent of his measured rounds last season which puts him inside of the top 15 on TOUR. Despite the standout tee-to-green play, he finished just 68th in the FedExCup race, likely underperforming based on his underlying metrics.
62. Sebastian Munoz
Baseline Ranking: 49
1-Year Starts: 20
Notes: The North Texas product is now 83-for-132 in his career (63%). Steady striking was the name of the game as he ranked 44th in tee-to-green despite losing strokes around-the-green. He’s eclipsed 25 starts in all four seasons on the PGA TOUR so you get a high-volume, consistent option when drafting Munoz.
61. Matt Kuchar
Baseline Ranking: 40
1-Year Starts: 20
Notes: Kuchar went just 12-for-25 in 2021 but rebounded with a 15-for-20 record last season. His 2022 consistency levels were closer to his historic levels but the days of him making it to East Lake every year seem to be over. He’s finished outside the Top 60 in the FedExCup race in four of the last five seasons.
60. Aaron Rai
Baseline Ranking: 63
1-Year Starts: 28
Notes: The Englishman is not the longest off the tee but he is one of the steadiest. He ranked 16th in driving accuracy last season and that translated into 19 paydays in 28 events played. That consistency gives him a nice weekly floor but he needs to improve the putting consistency if he wants to make a big leap from weekly cut-maker to weekly contender.
59. Brendon Todd
Baseline Ranking: 48
1-Year Starts: 23
Notes: His baseline stats have him ranked as a top-50 golfer but his results haven’t lived up to that rank. He’s finished outside of the top 75 in the FedExCup standings in each of the last two seasons. He’s one of the shorter hitters and loses a ton of strokes off-the-tee as a result. Generally, this is the style of play I avoid but there are certainly courses that suit his game and his elite short game will keep him hanging around most weeks.
58. Lucas Herbert
Baseline Ranking: 61
1-Year Starts: 23
Notes: He’s quickly proven himself to be an all-or-nothing fantasy option with six of his 10 cuts made also doubling as top 25s last season. That included a breakout win at the 2021-22 Bermuda Championship. The Aussie gained strokes putting in 65 percent of his measured rounds last season which was 5th best on TOUR. His ball-striking needs a lot of improvement but that elite short game will give him big-finish upside.
57. Justin Suh
Baseline Ranking: 93
1-Year Starts: 30
Notes: The 25-year-old put on a clinic last year on the Korn Ferry circuit. He posted top 10s in 10-of-24 starts with six others landing inside of the top 20. As the leading points earner from the KFT he doesn’t have to worry about the reshuffle and he’ll get entry into some big events. He struggled with injuries when he first turned pro but otherwise his college stats stacked up right alongside names like Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff, and Viktor Hovland. Suh has that kind of upside for 2023.
**UPDATE**
56b. Harris English
Baseline Ranking: 64
1-Year Starts: 14
Notes: The Georgia Bulldog struggled through injury in 2022 but looked more like himself as the year came to an end, going 6-for-7 during the fall schedule. English grades out very similar to Gary Woodland as they both deal with injury troubles but are “make it to East Lake” types of talent when healthy and swinging their best. While English has that Top-30 upside, I would prefer to let him fall down the draft board and only consider drafting him if he slips past 50th.
56. Gary Woodland
Baseline Ranking: 64
1-Year Starts: 23
Notes: Injuries have slowed his career trajectory but he was still top 45 off-the-tee and approach last season. He posted eight straight Top 45 FedExCup seasons before 2021 so that elite level of play isn’t too far removed.
55. Nick Hardy
Baseline Ranking: 68
1-Year Starts: 25
Notes: The Illini product pulled off the rare feat of improving his results after returning from an injury. A wrist injury, too, making it more impressive. Hardy was out for a month after the Zurich Classic but he returned to top 15s in four of his next six starts (one of those being a KFT rehab start). He added a trio of top 25s in fall to cement his status as a 2023 breakout candidate.
54. J.T. Poston
Baseline Ranking: 54
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: Set personal best last season with starts (30), podiums (3), top 10s (4), and top 25s (10). He did all that while ranking outside the top 100 in driving distance and driving accuracy. He makes a lot of starts and his spot in the OWGR (53rd) will put him on the radar for big events like the WGCs.
53. Wyndham Clark
Baseline Ranking: 65
1-Year Starts: 29
Notes: Whether you say Drive for Dough or Putt for Dough, Clark checks both boxes. Looking for names that gained strokes off-the-tee and putting in at least 58 percent of their rounds, there were just seven names that qualify last season. Clark was one of them, joining the others which included Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Seamus Power, Max Homa, and Adam Long. That’s a pretty good list of names to be associated with. Clark has at least six top 25s in three of the last four seasons and it wouldn’t be too surprising if he turned a few more of those into top 10s or even landed his maiden win, in 2023.
52. Dean Burmester
Baseline Ranking: 57
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: The big hitter is playing his first season on the PGA TOUR and got things started with a top 5 at the CC of Jackson. He slowed his paced to end the fall before heading home to South Africa to bag a pair of top 10s on the DP World Tour. His power is going to unlock a lot of scoring chances, particularly on the courses that let you attack the par 5s or short par 4s.
51. Patrick Rodgers
Baseline Ranking: 55
1-Year Starts: 27
Notes: The Stanford standout is surprisingly still searching for his maiden win. He came close in the fall but still can’t get over the line. He gained strokes off-the-tee in 61% of his rounds last season and gained putting in 55% of those rounds. That is a very strong combination, similar to the mold of Wyndham Clark that I laid out above. That play style will typically lead to a lot of chances to win so Rodgers could finally cross the line in 2023. It also wouldn’t be shocking if it was a “floodgates are open” type of situation where he snags a few wins in a short amount of time once he wins gets one.