Welcome to the first of three mock drafts I will be publishing for Rotoworld in anticipation of the Rasmus Dahlin show in Dallas this June.
If you are familiar with my work with McKeens Hockey over the last three seasons, or Hockey Prospectus or ESPN before that, good to see you again. If not, pleased to meet you.
This mock draft – and the next two – are based on my knowledge of the drafting histories of the General Managers and Scouting Directors who pull the trigger on draft day and the organizational depth of the 31 teams. Of course, the mocks will also lean heavily on the scouting performed by the McKeens Hockey international scouting staff, who have been providing scouting reports on the 31 players listed here, as well as many, many others who will hear their names called out between June 22-23 at the American Airlines Center.
It is also very important to note that I care far more about who a team should draft than in trying to predict who they will draft.
Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here’s the link
The draft order used for this mock is essentially the ascending order of team records, assuming that the draft lottery rewards failure. I will presume that the Ottawa Senators, scheduled to pick second, do not send their pick to Colorado, and opt to send over their 2019 first rounder instead. Furthermore, the St. Louis Blues will be able to keep their pick if they win the lottery. As this mock is pre-lottery and the Blues are slated to pick 14th, that pick would become property of the Philadelphia Flyers as a remnant of last summer’s Brayden Schenn deal. There are no other conditional picks currently set to be moved.
It also bears in mind that the final four picks will go to the Stanley Cup winner (#31), the Stanley Cup runner-up (#31) and the semi-finalists (#28-29, in ascending order of their regular season record. While I am not here predicting how the playoffs will unfold, I will presume home-ice advantage will play out throughout the playoffs for this mock and order to 28-31 picks accordingly.
The next version of this mock draft will drop in around six weeks, shortly after the conclusion of the Memorial Cup (a.k.a. the end of the Junior season in North America). The draft lottery will have taken place by then. The final version will be published in the run up to draft day.
Without further ado, here is my early mock draft:
1. Buffalo Sabres – Rasmus Dahlin, D (Frolunda HC – Sweden)
The least controversial pick out there. Dahlin is unlikely to have the immediate impact that Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews did, but the gap between Dahlin and the next best talent available this year is greater than the gap between McDavid and Jack Eichel, or between Matthews and Patrik Laine was when it was their turn. Plays like a small defenseman, but has a mature frame. One of the most creative puck carrying defensemen, if not the most creative, since Erik Karlsson was drafted. Dahlin has elite puck skills and very high hockey IQ. It is hard to project any rookie defenseman to step right in as a #1, but Dahlin is close. And if he is not there right away, he will be pretty soon. Will step right into the NHL and provide Buffalo (“in this scenario”, a phrase which I promise not to use for every pick) with the one element they have been absolutely unable to acquire in either of their successive rebuilds yet.
2. Ottawa Senators (note that Ottawa has the right to send this pick to Colorado as part of the Matt Duchene trade, but is very unlikely to do so, even with the worst possible lottery scenario, which sees them picking fifth) – Andrei Svechnikov, RW (Barrie – OHL)
Ottawa is in a sticky situation. Usually, even at the top of the draft, it is advisable for teams not to draft for need, but to draft for long-term upside. The Senators, presuming for now that they keep Erik Karlsson around – if, for no other reason than their 2019 first rounder is property of the Colorado Avalanche – could use a player who is ready now and can add a scoring touch behind Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman. The team lacks high impact wingers after those two and their top two prospects (Colin White and Logan Brown) are both centers. Svechnikov is an excellent skater who tore up the USHL at age 16 and the OHL this year, as a 17 year old. More a goal scorer than a playmaker, he could be receiving regular top six time and ample power play opportunities by mid-season.
3. Arizona Coyotes – Filip Zadina, RW (Halifax – QMJHL)
Although a few other prospects might be more “ready” to contribute next year, Zadina has higher upside than anyone left on the board. An effortless skater with a very creative offensive mind, he dominated in the QMJHL in his first season in North America, after passing up the chance to cross the pond after being selected in the CHL Import Draft by Vancouver in 2016. Gained a lot of fans with a stellar performance in the most recent WJC, with a seven goal showing. He has a very heavy wrist shot and a gift for finding loose spots in defensive coverage and exploiting them mercilessly. Although he received heavy PK minutes in junior hockey with Halifax, he is unlikely to take on that role for at least a few years in the NHL. There are some who think his development would be best served by heading back to Europe to play against men for a year, but there is little to suggest he would not fit in as a top six NHL goal scorer right away.
4. Montreal Canadiens – Brady Tkachuk, LW (Boston University)
The Canadiens have seemingly been searching for toughness and character for a while, a feeling which was reiterated by GM Marc Bergevin with emphasis in his season-ending press conference. It would not at all surprise to see the Habs return to the NCAA ranks for the first round pick for the second year in a row. While last year’s first rounder, Ryan Poehling, was more of a traditional 200-foot center, Tkachuk is a big bruising power forward with remarkably good hands. Kind of like his father Keith, or his older brother and current Calgary star, Matthew. The youngest Tkachuk is ahead of where his brother was at this age and has the strength and understanding to play in the NHL straight away. He excels playing the puck from behind the goal line and is just as likely to attempt a wrap-around stuff play as he is to send a nifty pass to a linemate in the slot or sneaking down from the point. He is the type of player who makes his teammates around him more effective.
5. Detroit Red Wings - Quinn Hughes, D (University of Michigan)
There are other defensemen would not be shocking at this stage of the draft, including Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson, but none of those players was tested at the Word Juniors, none has played consistently with players often three or more years his senior, none saw their games improve by as much since the calendar flipped to 2018 and none has as many dynamic qualities to their game as does Hughes. The fact that Hughes spent the year an easy drive from Detroit in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is incidental. He was born in Florida and spent much of his childhood in Toronto, where his father was a long time employee of the Maple Leafs. The Red Wings, who have never replaced Nicklas Lidstrom (forget for a moment that he is irreplaceable) will acquire, in Hughes, a player who has the offensive tools and hockey IQ to grow into a #1 defenseman role. He is dynamic with the puck, improving away from it and approximately 16 months away from being ready to have an impact at the NHL level.
&;
6. Vancouver Canucks – Evan Bouchard, D (London – OHL)
Two years ago, with the fifth pick of the draft, the Vancouver Canucks drafted a smart, puck moving defenseman from the London Knights of the OHL in Olli Juolevi. While Juolevi has not advanced as quickly as some may have hoped, he has shown many signs of progress, looking very good this year on loan with Liiga side TPS, against men. This year, the draft positions Vancouver to dip their toes in the same stream once more with Knights’ star defender Bouchard. A true quarterback on the blueline, Bouchard projects as more of an offensive contributor than Juolevi ever did. He continued to rack up points in the OHL, even after the Knights dealt away many of their more experienced players, finishing with an astounding 87 points in 67 games. Between his big point shot and his advanced ability to read the ice, he could quickly team up again with former teammate Juolevi to form the core of the Canucks blueline for years to come.
7. Chicago Blackhawks – Oliver Wahlstrom, RW (USNTDP)
Although the strength of this draft is in its blueliners, there are a few high scoring wingers as well who should come off the board early, such as the three who follow Dahlin at the top of this mock. Wahlstrom is the fourth who projects to a potential first line role. A poacher type who conserves his energy until he can strike, his skating, shot and puck skills all grade out as high end tools. Although currently officially committed to attend Harvard in the fall, there have been many rumors circulating that he will not be going to Cambridge, but will play at Boston University instead, or perhaps Europe (much less likely). His style of play reminds me of Kieffer Bellows, but the Bellows who has dominated action in the WHL and WJC this year as opposed to the sometimes selfish player who preceded Wahlstrom with the USNTDP before his draft year. Will need a strong passing center to score, but he has serious power in his shot.
8. New York Rangers – Adam Boqvist, D (Brynas IF Gavle – Sweden)
Last year, with their first top ten pick since 2010, The Rangers went to Sweden to mature center Lias Andersson, who has since proven to be more advanced than many pundits had expected. This year, picking eighth, the Blueshirts would be advised to return to Sweden to select dynamic defenseman Adam Boqvist. Although Boqvist does not have as much high level experience as Andersson did, his tools rate out higher. With just a touch more physical maturity, and the confidence than often comes with it, he could be the sort of electric blueline presence not since on Broadway since (this is not a comparison!!!) Brian Leetch.
9. Edmonton Oilers – Noah Dobson, D (Acadie-Bathurst - QMJHL)
Although the Oilers have some good young defensemen in the system (think Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones) and some still developing defensemen in the NHL (Adam Larsson, Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom), a team needs six good ones to compete and Dobson would fit in very nicely as a top four option within a few years. A very good skater who thinks the game at a professional level, he has a booming slapshot that suggests a future on the power play while demonstrating the ability to read the game, position himself accordingly and a physical streak to hint at some shut-down potential as well. Dobson does everything at a high level, even if he lacks one stand-out tool. He will be a good one.
10. New York Islanders – Joe Veleno, C (Drummondville – QMJHL)
Although the last two years saw a shift in drafting habits, Garth Snow’s New York Islanders have long using their top picks on high profile players from the Canadian Junior ranks. They will have a chance to return to those roots with this pick with Veleno, the first ever “Exceptional Status” player in the QMJHL. Although he struggled out of the gate this year with a re-tooling Saint John squad, he perked right back up, reaching new levels after being traded to Drummondville at mid-season. He has a combination of puck skills and hockey IQ that allows him to work well with other talented, offensively-inclined linemates. Should John Tavares bolt in free agency this summer, Veleno can be earmarked as the future number 2 center behind Mathew Barzal.
11. Carolina Hurricanes – Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C (Assat Pori – Finland)
There are a few good forward prospects who would fit at this stage of the first round, but give the choices on the board, I would expect the Hurricanes to take the top Finn in the draft in Kotkaniemi. Even with the upheavals in the organization (former GM Ron Francis was kicked upstairs and the team is currently looking for a replacement), the scouting staff will take time to turn a new leaf, if they shake things up at that level at all. Over the last three years Carolina, which is known for having one of the smallest scouting staffs in the league, have focused heavily on Finland and have seen that bear fruit with Sebastian Aho with others including Janne Kuokkanen and Eetu Luostarinen on the way. Kotkaniemi still needs work on his skating efficiency, but his puck skills and hockey IQ are both high end and he was fantastic as a teenager in Finland’s top men’s league.
12. New York Islanders (via Calgary Flames, as part of last summer’s Travis Hamonic trade) – Bode Wilde, D (USNTDP-U17)
These guys again? While the Travis Hamonic deal did not have the immediate impact in Calgary that was hoped for by the Flames organization, the Islanders are set to reap the benefits for a long while yet. Wilde is a prototypical power play quarterback. He looks marvelous exiting the zone with the puck on his stick, scanning the lay of the land and making a subtle yet Wilde-ly effective (I didn’t like that pun any more than you did) deke to get by the first line of the forecheck as he explodes up the ice. More an offensive contributor than a strong own-zone player, he could be a very nice compliment to current QB Ryan Pulock after he ends his time at the University of Michigan.
13. Dallas Stars – Joel Farabee, LW (USNTDP)
An intelligent, playmaking winger from the US program, Farabee has been a bit divisive to some scouts as he is often the third wheel on the USNTDP first line (playing with Wahlstrom and Jack Hughes, the presumptive top prospect for the 2019 draft). He plays heavy minutes in all situations for the program and plays a heavier game than is smaller than average frame would suggest. His IQ suggests a ceiling in the range of a Mikael Granlund type of player. As is sometimes the case with USNTDP players who can be boxed into a set role, there may be even more to his game which a difference coaching staff (such as Boston University’s next year) can help to bring out.
14. Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis Blues. The Blues would retain this selection if they win the win either of the three draft lottery slots) – Akil Thomas, C (Niagara –OHL)
A player who has improved by a tremendous amount in his draft year, Thomas was one of the highest scoring draft eligible players in all of CHL with 81 points for the Niagara Ice Dogs. Although his stats skew towards assists over goals, his tools suggest that he could morph into a shooter over time. He has an excellent shot, headlined by a powerful wrister. Plays with poise and elusiveness. He is not big enough to play a power game, but neither was last year’s second first rounder Morgan Frost, and no one is currently complaining about his development. Thomas is a straight-line player who excels at generating scoring chances.
15. Florida Panthers – Isac Lundestrom, C (Lulea HF- Sweden)
The last of the lottery picks. A good playmaker with strong puckhandling skills. He plays a very mature game and enters the draft with two practically full years of SHL experience already under his belt. Still getting comfortable showing off his offensive skills with the men, Lundestrom has worked on balancing out his game, proving reliability in all three zones. Should grow more assertive in the offensive end with time. Does not have the dynamic elements to his game that some of the higher rated prospects have, but contains an overall game that should fit very nicely in a middle six role down the line, whether at center, or on the wing.
16. Colorado Avalanche – K’Andre Miller, D (USNTDP)
The Avalanche have not drafted out of the USNTDP since taking a shot on Will Butcher (which worked out great for the next team on the clock), but have not shied away from players embarking on the NCAA route, with four high picks in the past three seasons on that path. Miller is still very raw, having only moved to the blueline in the last few years. He already shows flashes of terrific upside in his game. He is a fantastic skater, very strong off the puck, both in terms of making the right play and his sheer physical strength. His ability to contribute to the offensive game from the point has also come a long way, most notably with his passing and occasional forays deep into the offensive zone. He will need more time than most here to be ready, but might have more potential than any of the non-Dahlin blueliners.
17. New Jersey Devils – Grigori Denisenko, LW (Russia)
A strong skater with dazzling puck skills, Denisenko can be a bit polarizing, in part due to his propensity for taking very bad penalties. His success is predicated on how often he flashes with the puck. He has great vision and creativity for the offensive aspects of the game, but can disappear when the opponent has the puck. He needs to add more muscle mass to both be able to impact the game in a cleaner fashion, as well as to hopefully add more heft to his shot, which currently lacks a little in velocity. Is under contract in Russia through 2020.
18. Columbus Blue Jackets – Barrett Hayton, C (Sault Ste. Marie – OHL)
A strong skating, 200 foot center, Hayton falling to this slot is almost a dream scenario for the Blue Jackets. As he plays only third line minutes with a stacked Sault Ste. Marie squad, he can be somewhat difficult to scout, but the fact that he has accrued nearly one point per game in limited ice time speaks well to his skills. He still needs to play a more consistent game, but he is highly competitive, a talented puck handler capable of moments of brilliance and trustworthy for high leverage shifts.
19. Philadelphia Flyers – Ty Smith, D (Spokane – WHL)
You can never have too many defensemen. The Flyers have youth on the blueline in the NHL in Provorov, Gostisbehere, Sanheim, and Hagg, and more coming in Myers, and Morin, but there is no such thing as too many. Of course, the Flyers’ system is stacked at all positions. Ty Smith is simply the best player available. Although his CHL Top Prospects Game was forgettable, his work in the regular season for Spokane was unforgettable, with 73 points in 69 games. Although undersized (5-10”, 170) he relies on smarts and positioning to play a reliable gam in his own end. He thrives with the puck on his stick, and looks great rushing the puck up the ice with speed before unleashing a pass to the tape of a waiting teammate.
20. Los Angeles Kings – Ryan Merkley, D (Guelph – OHL)
A home run swing. The Kings, who love to draft out of the OHL, aim for the fences with Merkley, a supremely talented, yet enigmatic blueliner with Guelph. A superb skater with amazing puck skills and playmaking tendencies, he has often frustrated coaches and scouts with seeming disinterest in the game in his own end. Definitely a player whose strengths lie with the puck on his stick. His lack of size sees him getting pushed around on occasion by more aggressive opponents, but his rare puck skills make him a risk worth taking at this stage of the first round.
21. San Jose Sharks – Jared McIsaac, D (Halifax- QMJHL)
As part of a prospect heavy Halifax roster, McIsaac always had offensive talent from the blueline, but has also shown himself to be able to read the game at an advanced level, and play with poise beyond his years. Although he has average size, he plays a bigger style of game and is very difficult to play against along the boards. His finest attribute is his skating prowess, as he shows great speed whether going backwards or forwards. His is solid with the puck in the offensive end as well, but definitely more in line with current Shark Marc-Edouard Vlasic than superstar Brent Burns.
22. Ottawa Senators (from Pittsburgh Penguins, as part of the Derrick Brassard trade) – Nils Lundkvist, D (Lulea – Sweden)
It should go without saying, but just in case it doesn’t, I’ll say it here. Erik Karlsson is irreplaceable. Whether he stays, or goes, the Senators need some high end youngsters in the pipeline for their defensive crew. Clearly a team that is comfortable drafting out of Sweden (last year was first draft since 2007 without drafting a player of Swedish origin), Lundkvist has been rising up draft boards rapidly over the second half of the season. A smooth skater with promising puck skills, he gains recognition for his incredibly high hockey IQ. McKeens scout Jimmy Hamrin has compared him to Samuel Girard as a smallish defender who can move the puck and read the game at a high level. He may not put up big points, but will make it easier for his teammates to do so.
23. Anaheim Ducks – Serron Noel, RW (Oshawa- OHL)
If there is a player with size and skill on the board, there is a good chance that the Anaheim Ducks have their eyes on him. It would be difficult not to have your eyes on Noel if you have been watching Oshawa this year. Listed at 6-5”, 200, he is a prototype power forward. An awkward yet powerful skater, he has a skill set that can be breathtaking when his gears are all in sync. He is not mean, like former Ducks pick Max Jones, but is no less effective for his failure to snarl while using his body to make life hard for opponents. Has good hands from in close, and his wrist shot is a beast coming off the wing. There is as much space between his floor and his ceiling with Noel than there is with anyone else likely to be selected in the first round.
24. Minnesota Wild – Mattias Samuelsson, D (USNTDP)
With most of their top prospects forwards, and around half of the NHL blueline corps past or very close to 30, the Wild would be wise to shore up the position in the draft this year. The fact that only one of their six selections last year was a defenseman adds to the case. With five players selected in the past four drafts who have spent time in the USNTDP, Samuelsson seems to be a good fit. A very big man who skates quite well for his size, the son of Kjell, a Western Michigan commit, profiles as far more of a defensive defenseman than a contributor on offense. He does have a strong point shot, and executes basic passes without problem, but his real selling points are away from the puck, namely his positioning in his own zone and his physical game.
25. Toronto Maple Leafs – Rasmus Kupari, C (Karpat – Finland)
A fantastic skater who would fit right in on Toronto’s fast paced offensive attack, Kupari is well-enough considered at home that he was named to Finland’s WJC roster this season. A smart player with a solid build, his offensive numbers in Liiga have been held back by raw decision making when it comes to making plays with the puck. His speed may allow him to set offensive attacks in motion, but thus far he has had to rely upon linemates to capitalize. His shot is more accurate than hard and his puck skills push the pace of the game more than they get defenders off their games. Kupari’s defensive game is actually quite polished for his age.
26. New York Rangers (via Boston Bruins, as part of the return for Rick Nash) – Ryan McLeod, C (Mississauga – OHL)
If the Rangers want to get faster as a team, adding McLeod and the previously selected Boqvist will go a long way to helping the team pick up the pace. The younger brother of Devils’ prospect Michael McLeod, Ryan plays a similar game. Tons of speed, a skilled game with the puck, and top hockey sense and energy. The younger McLeod is good size, but does not play a physical game. More a playmaker than a scorer, although his defensively responsible game will make him an option in a lower line scenario, contributing on the penalty kill as well as at even strength.
27. St. Louis Blues (via Winnipeg Jets, as part of the return for Paul Stastny) – Alexander Alexeyev, D (Red Deer – WHL)
Having mostly eschewed defensemen at the top of the draft over the past few years, in this scenario, the top few players on the board are all blueliners. Considering their affinity for players with beef, Alexeyev is the only one of those top dogs who would never be called undersized. More than just a big body though, he is a very talented skater with high end puck skills and vision. Alexeyev had a very challenging season on a personal level, due to the sudden passing of his mother in Russia, but he was back on the ice for Red Deer within weeks, helping the team embark on a frantic late season run to make the WHL postseason. Still has growth to make in his own zone, to settle down to play a calmer game, but the pieces are there for a top four defensemen in the NHL down the road.
28. Washington Capitals – Jacob Olofsson, C (Timra - Sweden 1)
If you know how the Capitals draft, you know that they are likely to pick players from either the WHL, Switzerland, or Sweden. There are not too many Swiss prospects in the draft pool this year, and definitely not this early, but they will have a few options from the other two categories of player. The top WHL options are on the blueline, and they have drafted heavily for that position in the past three years, so I could see them drafting one of the talented Swedish forwards on the board. Olofsson fits the bill as a solid center without any major flaws in his game. He skates well, has a good wrist shot, is strong on the puck and more than held his own as a two-way forward in Allsvenskan (Sweden’s second men’s league) as an 18-year-old.
29. Detroit Red Wings (via Vegas Golden Knights, as part of the return in the Tomas Tatar trade) – Vitali Kravtsov, RW (Chelyabinsk – KHL)
A smooth skater with soft hands, Kravtsov has high-end offensive potential, even if his game is still a little rough around the edges. Tall and lanky, he needs to develop physically as well as generally when away from the puck, but his work on the puck should give Red Wings’ fans and management reasonable hope that they have a top half of lineup player in the system with this player. He is explosive in his movement and a very creative stickhandler and passer. His performance in the KHL playoffs for Chelyabinsk (11 points in 16 games) also suggest that he can still make things happen when the games get tighter.
30. New York Rangers (via Tampa Bay Lightning, as part of the return in the Ryan McDonagh trade) – Martin Kaut, RW (Pardibuce HC – Czech Republic)
These guys again? With their third pick of the first round, the Rangers go back to the Czech Republic, from where they selected Filip Chytil last year, for Kaut, had a better offensive season in the Czech extraliga this year than Chytil did last year. A breakout star of the Czech team in the WJC, he played a heavy game, with good possession ability and a nice passing game. He is not as fast as Chytil, but not that much slower either. He thinks the game very well for his age, and can be used in all situations. Can also be slotted in as a center.
31. Chicago Blackhawks (via Nashville Predators, as part of the return in the Ryan Hartman trade) – Calen Addison, D (Lethbridge – WHL)
After ignoring Western Canada at the draft for a few years running, the Blackhawks went there three times last year, including with its first two picks. As a great skater with a talented stick, he will fit in well with Chicago’s quick transition, possession heavy style of play. He still need to round out the defensive portion of his play, doing a better job of deciding when to pinch, and learn how to not let his lack of size and strength be a big detriment, but his speed and offensive attributes make him solid value at the end of the first round. A fantastic post-season performance for the Hurricanes only can help his stock.
