Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Week 24 was a pretty solid round in terms of returns from the top captaincy options, as popular choices I had nominated like Jarrod Bowen, Kevin De Bruyne and Diogo Jota all provided double digit returns that were then doubled by the armband. As long as you backed one of these three, you likely finished up with a green arrow. For those who may have gotten behind Harry Kane, well, Spurs be doing Spursy things right now. My apologies to those in that camp.
With the quick turnaround, there is little time for reflection on the week that was though, as we now enter a period of double gameweeks and blank gameweeks in which we need to navigate our sides in such a way to maximize our point output with clever transfers and well-used chips. We only have one full day between the end of one round and the beginning of the next, so forgive the intro for being a little brief this time around.
Personally, I am in a good way with the direction my squad is going at the moment, having notched a third straight green arrow and not feeling any regrets about the wildcard I played two rounds ago. After dropping down to 240k in the ranks in Week 21, I am just outside the 100k barrier heading into the weekend and, with an XI that I think is about as strong on paper as anyone playing their Free Hit chip, I am confident another green arrow is on the way. Famous last words, but let’s remain positive as we look at the landscape for this Week 25 edition of Captain Obvious…
Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes
In many fantasy manager’s minds, this is the beginning and end of the short list for captaincy this gameweek. The two premium players from Manchester United, one of only two clubs with a double gameweek, simply make the most sense, given twice the chance to offer a suitable and satisfying return. Brighton are the other club with a double, and I will touch upon them later on, but with both of Manchester United’s games at home while Brighton play both of their matches away, the overwhelming consensus is that there is more potential with United. Therefore, the armband search begins and ends with the Red Devils if double gameweeks are your jam.
For the vast majority of FPL managers, there is no need to make a difficult decision between the two. With the exception of those who are using a Free Hit chip (which I would not recommend for this round, in case you were considering doing it yourself), the odds are, you have only one of these two players on your roster. Thus, your captain is pretty much decided without any headaches. You have one premium player with a double gameweek. If you believe in the philosophy of giving the armband to a double gameweek player over those with a single gameweek, as much as I would like for you to read further, the truth is, your journey this weekend has already concluded. Those with Fernandes, go Fernandes. Those with Ronaldo, go Ronaldo.
For those who have Ronaldo in their side, well, it would be natural to feel a bit apprehensive about your situation. He has not had an attacking return since Week 20 and in the last match, he was benched. In a season where seemingly none of the forward options are providing value in relation to their price, Ronaldo has been a glaring example. With eight goals and three assists on the season to date, he has averaged an attacking return about every two games. When you are spending 12m+ on a forward, that is a terrible return on value.
In seasons past, when you spend that kind of money on the likes of Sergio Agüero, Harry Kane, Didier Drogba, Luis Suárez or Robin Van Persie, to name a few, you are paying for a player that delivers returns somewhere around three out of every four or four out of every five games. Still, we have seen Ronaldo return double figures four times so far, he has it in him to do that in one of these two games. If you have him, it is do or die time. Odds are, you have held on to him for this gameweek, so you may as well dive all-in and back him with the armband. If anything, feel positive about his benching against Burnley. It only adds to the probability that he starts these next two games, especially with United scoring just once and coming away with a disappointing draw against the Clarets.
In the case of Fernandes, you at least have a player in some kind of form. Yes, he has blanked the last two league games, but he has clearly built up his influence in the past month to a place we were used to before the Ronaldo Show showed up. In fact, with CR7 missing a critical penalty chance in the FA Cup loss to Middlesbrough, there is a chance the next spot kick opportunity goes back to Fernandes, giving him further appeal. Still, if we are to be honest, neither Ronaldo nor Fernandes have met their value over the course of this season. That said, those who have Fernandes in their squad will feel rightfully compelled to give him the armband, knowing he has the potential to score big over the course of two games.
If you are one of the rare souls that is playing their Free Hit chip this weekend, then you are bound to have both of these options in your XI and you will need to make a choice. When you are talking about what both of these players have done over the course of the season, well, it really is a coin flip, with Fernandes averaging 4.5 points per game and Ronaldo right next to him, returning an average of 4.6 points. For me, the deciding factor would come down to who has the better form at the moment, which is clearly Fernandes. However, I also carry the philosophy that players like Ronaldo, who has gone several games without an attacking return, are simply “due”. It would be silly for me to outright nominate one player over the other when there is every chance that I could be wrong. You will have to go with your gut if you have to make a call like this.
It is quite rare for a goalkeeper to enter the captaincy conversation, but I really think that De Gea needs to be considered. Yes, his 4 points per game return this season is a solid half-point lower than Fernandes or Ronaldo, and perhaps his ceiling is not as high as the two attacking options but there is no doubt that his floor is also much, much higher, making him the “safest” play in my view.
With a pair of home games against a pair of mid-table sides, the odds are good that United can keep a clean sheet in at least one of them. If you feel as strong as I do about those odds, and let us throw in a point for saves as well, then a 7 point return from one game and then a chance at something from the other game sounds like prudent business. We have to be prepared for the possibility that at least one of Ronaldo or Fernandes will blank in both of their games. I already feel remorse for those that might get considerably unlucky. If you want an option that provides a safe route to some amount of points, rather than risk getting stuck with two blanks, then for those who have De Gea, he is a legit option. Not to mention, for what it’s worth, he’s probably been United’s most consistent player this season.
Mo Salah
If you are going to opt out of a double gameweek option, then you should probably turn to the player that has been there for you all season long before considering anyone else. We got exactly what we wanted to see from Salah in Liverpool’s midweek match - he returned from the AFCON tournament in perfect health, trained with the Reds, made the bench and then played for a half an hour to get back up to Premier League speed in time for this weekend. I touched upon what Fernandes and Ronaldo have offered so far this season on a points per game basis, 4.5 and 4.6 respectively. Let us then appreciate how good Salah has been to us, averaging 8.5 points - miles ahead of everyone else in the league, not counting the recently-arrived Philippe Countinho, who is at 8.4 points per game with his small sample size of three appearances.
One thing to consider in terms of Salah being somewhat human still, is that while the Reds have done perfectly fine when traveling to Turn Moor to play Burnley, Salah has had minimal personal success, at least recently. In the past two games at Turf Moor, Liverpool have won each by a 0-3 scoreline. However, even though Salah played 90 minutes in each of these games, he return only a single assist. It is not the sort of stat I would put too much weight on, especially considering Salah, who has already had several fantastic seasons, is enjoying his career-best campaign right now. Players, whether we want to believe it or not, tend to think about these things. Salah could be motivated to score at Turf Moor based on having a minimum impact in the past two years. He will also continue to be among the leaders for captaincy as casual players and ghost teams will keep those numbers up. As long as you are in the top million in rank, that should not have too much effect on you, but it should be pointed out.
Another single gameweek option, one who is not named Mo Salah, is the Belgian midfield maestro, Kevin De Bruyne. Whenever I go to make transfers on the FPL site, I always like to click on the “Form” guide to see if there are any players that have been going under my radar who I should consider. For example, when looking at form ahead of Week 24, I had noticed and even tweeted out how well James Ward-Prowse had been doing, having been completely ignored by the FPL Twitter community who are usually on top of such things. Having mentioned him on Twitter at the start of the week, what does he go ahead and do? He delivers a pair of assists and posts a double-digit haul in what was supposed to be a tough fixture for an attacking player on paper - away to Spurs. Now…the secret is out.
Well, naturally, whoever is atop the form guide should have your attention when it comes to captaincy, especially if said player has proven in the past to be worthy of the armband and that is precisely the situation we have with De Bruyne, who leads all players in form right now, averaging ten points per return over the past six-seven rounds. De Bruyne still has very low ownership among FPL managers, considering his history of being a fantasy darling, with just 16% of squads backing him as of this writing, so not only does he offer confidence in his current form, he offers true potential to climb the ranks, as opposed to backing Mo Salah every week or whichever popular option with a double gameweek would offer. Playing my wildcard recently, that is precisely why I did so, to make room for him and take advantage of his current low ownership. I have to say, so far, it is paying dividends.
What is somewhat shocking but nonetheless appealing about De Bruyne this season is that he has gone under a bit of a transformation that is translating into increased fantasy production. Typically thought of as an assist machine, he is now become much more the scorer so far in this campaign. Two extra points for finding the net yourself from midfield…always welcome in my squad. So right, looking back on his Manchester City career, he is typically delivering somewhere between two to three times as many assists as he does goals, with his 2017/18 season probably the best example of an average output of eight goals and eighteen assists. So far in this campaign, after getting off to a slow start, he currently sits with seven goals and two assists to his name - a complete reversal in how he has typically collected his fantasy points. City travel to play Norwich this weekend and, despite the Citizens typically scoring better at home while the Canaries have definitely improved defensively under Dean Smith, I still think form and fixture are both on De Bruyne’s side here and he completes my shortlist for Week 25.
Honorable Mentions
Brighton options
Having covered Manchester United, it is only fair to at least discuss the potential for options from the only other club playing twice in the coming round, Brighton and Hove Albion. Personally, between inconsistent returns from their attacking options and two road games taking away from the appeal of turning to a defensive player, while I think it is good to have a player like Marc Cucurella or Neal Maupay in your XI this week, simply for that extra chance of something good to happen, none of the Seagulls are armband material in my eyes. Even if you are one of the managers going into this round without one of Bruno Fernandes or Cristiano Ronaldo, I think there are single gameweek options that are much more desirable for captaincy than anyone here.
If he were brand-new to the league, perhaps I would need more than the three-game sample size that Coutinho has given us before trusting him with the armband, but we know he knows his way around a Premier League pitch. Scooping him up for a loan spell to finish this season looks like an absolute stroke of brilliance on Aston Villa’s part and he has needed no time at all to hit the ground running. Remember, his first appearance was from off the bench, so in three games, he has actually played just under two full 90 minute shifts. We are really talking about two goals and two assists in just two full games. Instead of waiting longer to feel confident about him, I think quite the opposite. If there was anything I remember well about Coutinho from his Liverpool days, it is that he can be a very streaky player. He is either fully switched on or fully switched off. Clearly, he is “on” right now, and until we see him quiet down, I have to add him to the armband debate, even if only as an honorable mention. With very favorable fixtures as well over the next four rounds, despite the lack of a double gameweek, Coutinho figures to stay in the conversation, if only for the short term.
Just a brief nod to Bowen here. I just don’t see many people turning to him as a captaincy choice this weekend due to circumstances with other players, but it has to be said, neither form nor fixture is holding him back. The form, as we witnessed during the week once again, is in top notch shape, as he added another double-digit haul to his impressive season and sits firmly in second place behind Salah for total points among attacking players i FPL. Then, you have the fixture. While “away to Leicester” may be rated in some guides as a moderate-to-unfavorable matchup, if we are being honest about the Foxes defense, we would quickly correct that notion and say that playing Leicester right now is a very favorable matchup. I expect West Ham to score a couple in this one and the rate Bowen has been involved in the Hammers goals for an extended period of time now, I have to think he will get a return at the King Power Stadium.
That’s about all I have for Week 25. Again, a bit of a rush job with the column this time around, as we hit our second deadline since Tuesday, but I think you have a nice group of players from which to make an informed, and hopefully confident, decision in finding one you feel good about handing the armband to.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
