Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Right, I am not one to beat around the bush...your humble writer is experiencing some hostile weather at the moment and finds himself firmly under it. Allow me to make this intro brief, so that I may return to working on full fitness.
Before the rumors begin to swirl, no, I did not fall ill conveniently in a week where I am coming off a poor fantasy round. You know, its simple statistics...for every player that lowers in rank, there is another player climbing, but it is rounds like Week 6 where you wonder how everyone didn’t lower in rank, like some impossible but true scene out of an M.C. Escher drawing.
Side note - you know you have made it in life if your last name does not prompt a spell check warning, such is the case with M.C. Escher.
Right, some big names came up empty, clean sheets getting snapped left and right, injuries are creeping in like a slow zombie attack...it was a real horror show of a gameweek for “most” of us. At the end of the day, though, what one decision would have turned a red arrow into a “break-even” arrow? Going with Salah over Ronaldo with my armband would have done it. And, of course, if Ronaldo takes that penalty instead of Bruno...yeah, it was a Murphy’s Law kind of weekend.
Well, good news. After this coming round, whether you have bounced back with a banger of a round score OR you had yet another dismal showing. Either way, you will have two weeks to celebrate or forget, whichever the case may be, your fate. So, let’s dive into this Week 7 edition of Captain Obvious…
Cristiano Ronaldo - 12.7m (roster % - 47.1%)
Total points - 21 (3 Gs, 0 As, 3 BPs)
Opponent - Everton (home)
If you captained Ronaldo last weekend, he is probably the last person you want to think about right now. It is one thing for a captain to blank,it is another for it to occur the way in which it did. As briefly mentioned in the opening, Manchester United were given a penalty chance near the end of the Aston Villa match. Despite a poor performance by Ronaldo’s standards on the day and by the team in general, this was the moment to make everything bearable from a fantasy perspective. As we all have seen many times over by now, Villa’s Emi Martínez played some 4-D chess, getting into the heads of United as they set up for the penalty that Bruno Fernandes would take and proceed to see the ball fly into row Z.
Ronaldo is not shaping up to be the #1 captaincy choice, more on who that will likely be in a bit, particularly by those in the top 100k or so, but he will certainly be a top three choice, so no matter how you feel after his blank last weekend, his name is firmly in the conversation for the armband against an Everton defense that has been rather mediocre. Yes, the Toffees have two clean sheets in their first six, so shutting opponents out is not impossible for them, but you have to consider that one of those, last week, was a home game against Norwich. That is a fixture all but the worst defenses in the league should be able to handle. That said, this weekend will be a true test for both United’s attack and Everton’s defense.
For the Toffees, this will be the first “big” side they have faced so far this season. They have had the benefit of playing Southampton, Burnley and Norwich at home, while getting Leeds, Brighton and Aston Villa away. While credit is due for the clean sheet they kept at Brighton, they coughed up a pair of goals to Leeds and were spanked 3-0 in their trip to Villa Park. If United is Everton’s first “true” test and the arguably toughest fixture they have had so far resulted in a 3-0 loss to Villa, then one would expected United to be able to breach the Toffee defense.
And yet, United’s attack has quickly shriveled up into a shadow of its former self in recent outings. Not only were they shockingly held goalless at home last weekend against...that same pesky Villa side, they were held to a single goal in a loss to Young Boys a couple of weeks ago and kept out entirely in the Carabao Cup with West Ham last week. Even this week, with a 1-2 win over Villareal in the Champions League, United looked off their A-game, and only a last-second strike by, you know who, Cristiano Ronaldo, turned a ho-hum draw into a victory. Add to the issues with the attack as a whole, the revelation that Ronaldo is not United’s primary penalty taker, at least not quite yet, and suddenly the option that seemed the most clear last week has some question marks around it now.
Keep this final thought for the superstitious. Throw all stats out the window. If you are like me and captained Ronaldo last weekend, only to see him blank in the early game and sit through the rest of your long weekend, watching your rank plummet...do you really want to risk the exact scenario happening again in Week 7? United are at home with the early Saturday kickoff again. I don’t know...I admit, it is simply about what you can tolerate in your head, but I am apprehensive about getting burned the same way twice…at least, not in a row. Still though, nerves will be frayed either way, because I know Ronaldo is capable of a mega-haul, and the thought of missing out on that simply because of my reaction to the previous week is additional potential nightmare fuel. I am nervous about this week. Can you tell?
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Michail Antonio - 8m (roster % - 44.0%)
Total points - 47 (5 Gs, 4 As, 11 BPs)
Opponent - Brentford (home)
It pains me to say it, because I had the chance to bring him in for Bamford last weekend, and I didn’t, and now I face another week without him in my side, but if you want to back the elite armband option that is enjoying form at the moment, then Antonio is your man. Back from his suspension, when you take out the red card disaster game, it has been nothing but ample returns from Antonio. Last weekend was his ninth goal involvement in five games. Remember how I was saying that Everton’s defense had yet to be truly tested by a strong attack? Well, when I had the chance to bring in Antonio, part of my thinking was that this week’s matchup with Brentford was not as attractive as it may appear, as their defending had been strong. However, the Bees were given their first true test and, despite a thrilling draw against Liverpool, the defense was indeed breached for three goals. Add in a knock to Ethan Pinnock, who may or may not be available this weekend and suddenly Brentford look in trouble at the back. They do not have the depth to be without their regulars. Think how things went for Sheffield United when Jack O’ Connell was out of the picture. The defense, their strong suit, was decimated.
Something to consider going forward, though anything negative that may occur would likely leave you needing to make a transfer rather than worry about a misplaced armband, but West Ham are busy playing in Europe this season, and they just wrapped up a match last night. Antonio got the start, and was subbed off to preserve him for the weekend. That is the word I want to focus on - “preservation”. The Hammers are really playing with fire trying to navigate a season of league play and European cup play with only one dedicated striker, Antonio, in the squad. He has a track record of injury that would suggest that it is only a matter of time before the next one occurs, OR, West Ham rest him in hopes of delaying that occurrence. Yes, Jarrod Bowen has and can play up top, but it looks like David Moyes wants to use Antonio as much as he can (who can blame him). The returns are great, ride the wave while you can and captain Antonio if you feel good about him, but I sense a shelf life with a pending expiration date on his armband-worthy status.
Romelu Lukaku - 11.7m (roster % - 34.8)
Total points - 27 (3 Gs, 0 As, 5 BPs)
Opponent - Southampton (home)
Right, so if you have your ear close to the ground in the FPL community, then you have known since about 3 minutes after Lukaku signed with Chelsea that this was the week you “HAD” to have him, and as much Chelsea representation as you can get, because they have a gorgeous run of fixtures until the end of next month. And yet, what is all this trepidation I am feeling? Much like Manchester United, Chelsea have an elite attack on paper, but recent results would say otherwise. They were blanked by Juventus in Champions League play this week and of course were blanked over the weekend by City, but even Aston Villa held them to a single goal in a match that included extra time in Carabao Cup play last week. That makes one goal in Chelsea’s last 300 minutes of competition - and it was not Lukaku’s. That alone has to give one pause for an otherwise “clear choice” captain.
Add in the ominous element that has been a surprisingly solid Southampton defense. Yes, they conceded to a Wolves side that could not score to save their lives until last weekend, but other than one moment of athleticism by Raúl Jiménez, the Saints were still pretty stout at the back. Add in recent clean sheets against strong attacks like West Ham and Manchester City and you have enough examples to prove that Southampton’s defense is not simply fortunate to catch a good team on a bad day. They have done it enough times at this early stage of the season to already prove they are capable of being tougher than they look on paper.
It is indeed an odd situation and one to ponder. I am rather convinced that Lukaku will be the top-captained player this week, certainly among managers in the top million. But, perhaps...perhaps people have had tunnel vision about these Chelsea fixtures. Sure, defensively, plenty of confidence that they will keep clean sheets more often than not, but will Lukaku start getting more service? In my view, getting Lukaku back on the score sheet will be a priority for the Blues. They need him staying confident and not gong multiple weeks without scoring. The optimistic view is that Lukaku has simply found himself in a tough run of fixtures, but now has a chance to be a flat-track bully against some of the weaker sides in the league. With opponents like Burnley, Newcastle and Norwich on tap over the next five weeks, I see some fixtures where I cannot help but look at Lukaku as a captain. But, and I truly do not mean to be purposefully vague or coy, I am feeling some reluctance about backing him this week. But that is just me. Not having Antonio, I will likely have to decide between the other “big two” names this week, and there is reluctance tied to both. Hence, my worry that a red arrow is coming my way if I don’t get this decision right.
Honorable Mentions -
I am still on the “any player worth a darn playing Norwich is armband material” kick. Now, to try that strategy with Burnley would be the definition of thinking outside the box. But we cannot deny what will be happening INSIDE the box at Turf Moor this weekend, which is plenty of Chris Wood winning aerials and heading shots on target, if not, past the keeper. If you are brave enough to back him, tweet me the evidence and I will give you a shout out for next gameweek’s column
Mo Salah/Sadio Mané- If you want to talk about a rarity, it is seeing Salah not among the elite armband picks and being demoted to an honorable mention. Certainly, he has done nothing himself to warrant the snub - it is simply a fixtures game. Just to clarify, fixtures are not the be-all, end-all factor in making decisions about a player’s potential. Last season, fixtures meant close to nothing, but that was when stadiums were empty and everything was simply not normal. Looking at the first six weeks of the season in the books, just about enough of a sample size to make some legit observations, fixtures this season have indeed helped predict the outcomes at a much more consistent rate. Everything points to a tight affair between the Reds and the Citizens. Just to be clear, Salah CAN score in this and, because I think this will be low-scoring, a Salah goal would almost guarantee bonus points and a shot at a double-digit haul with one attacking return. The same could be true for Sadio Mané, however, and I simply do not see the room to feed both mouths enough to make them good armband options. Trent Alexander-Arnold will be missing from this one as well, so the best provider of dangerous balls to these wingers is out of the equation. City, too, by the way, are a club I think can be avoided for the armband debate for the same reason. Yes, Liverpool conceded three goals to Brentford, but I am confident we will see a better defensive showing at Anfield in this marquee matchup.
Ismalia Sarr - Catch a rising Sarr! Yeah, remind me to never use that as a headline. It’s cringeworthy. But nothing cringeworthy about the emergence of Sarr in FPL circles in recent weeks. I was pleased to bring him in in time to get that nice haul against Norwich and plan to ride his form as long as possible. I gave him an honorable mention last week for his Newcastle matchup, and he managed to grab another goal there, but in all honesty, I was worried that I appeared to be overreacting to one haul against lowly Norwich and to consider him as a captain was a bridge too far. Well, I am saying now, if you want to go for a differential, Watford are facing another defense worth picking on at the moment - Leeds United. I probably will not have the cajones to back Sarr with the armband this weekend, but I am confident a growing number of managers are looking at him for captaincy and that makes me happy for him. I love to watch players blossom into elite fantasy weapons, and Sarr is keeping pace to become just that.
Chelsea defender - Well, we all know the deal...if you do not have double Chelsea defense, then what is wrong with you? Just a bit of humor. Yes, one Chelsea defender is probably a wise move for this run of fixtures and I fault no one for bringing in a pair. There “should” be many a clean sheet to come over the next few weeks and, at home facing a Southampton side that could not find their way past Wolves would seem a situation ripe for yet another cleanie. So, if you are confident that this is the case and you are having a crisis about which attacking player you may want to captain, this strategy does offer some comfort. You have the highest floor of any choice this week. Show me any goal-scoring odds for any individual player and I guarantee the odds of a Chelsea clean sheet is greater and it’s probably not very close. So, if you can tolerate a likely high-floor six pointer, but with the chance of a bit of luck for an attacking return, and there is probably going to be a huge haul somewhere among the defense. Marcos Alonso is the clear top attacking threat. Antoino Rudiger and César Azpilicueta offer the most confidence in being in the Xi, Reece James has his own attacking threat but almost impossible to trust him given his recent playing time, or lack there of it, while boring Thiago Silva and Andreas Christensen offer another route, though be wary that of James, Christensen and Silva, one of them will have to be on the bench.
Raphinha - Patrick Bamford looks set to miss additional time which does not benefit Leeds’ attack as a whole, but I still think Raphinha can do damage in Bamford’s absence and the Peacocks still have several nice fixtures ahead of them, including the home game against Watford’s suspect defense. If Leeds can win here, I cannot see anything other than a double digit haul for Raphinha. He will have scored, but Leeds will have conceded, so with a win, I am banking Raphinha grabs the maximum bonus as well...sitting him potentially on precisely 10 points.
Jamie Vardy - Vardy was mentioned in the honorables last week and was quite honorable indeed, bagging a brace that was somewhat muted by an own goal. Still, he is quietly putting up another fine fantasy season, while going completely under the radar somehow and while Leicester have had their share of struggles otherwise. I tell you what, one more Ronaldo blank and I may be looking this man’s way. A trip to Palace is not an easy fixture, but not so difficult where i think Vardy will go missing. Maybe he blanks, but he’s going to have some chances.
And there you have it. Another look at the captaincy debate for the round ahead. Good luck with your selection this week, and may your arrows be green.
