March Madness is here and it’s time to fill out dozens or some people’s cases, hundreds of brackets! After filling out plenty of my own, here are four teams that I think are dark horses to make the Final Four and play the role of the modern day cinderella in the NIL era. All Final Four odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
East Region Dark Horse: Louisville Cardinals (+1300)
Per KenPom, Louisville ranks 19th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency, one of eight teams to be top 25 in both areas. The Cardinals are 9th in offensive two-point percentage (59.7%) and shot nearly 36% from deep on the year (35.7%, 79th) with 76.9% from the free-throw line (34th). Louisville doesn’t force turnovers enough (16.7%, 173rd), and they turn the ball over themselves (16.4%, 159th), so that could be the downfall for the Cardinals in this tournament. I can’t forget to mention that Louisville played the 30th toughest strength of schedule this year and has the 17th-most experienced roster with an average of 2.48 years of experience.
If Louisville beats South Florida, the Cardinals will likely face No. 3 seed Michigan State in the second round before a Sweet 16 date with either UConn, UCLA, or UCF. While Michigan State and UConn are big brand-name schools, both have had offensive issues all season, and offense isn’t the problem with Louisville. No. 1 seed Duke is facing injuries that leave them vulnerable, and the Blue Devils will have to go through Kansas or St. John’s, which will be a challenge.
Louisville lost to Duke by 9 at home and by 31 on the road this season. It’s difficult to be a team three times in one season, and the Cardinals wouldn’t be facing a 100-percent healthy Duke team. Louisville has a shot in a bracket filled with experienced coaches and plenty of brand recognition.
South Region Dark Horse: Vanderbilt Commodores (+1100)
Vanderbilt surprised a lot of people, knocking off Florida and making it to the SEC Tournament title game. The Commodores landed a No. 5 seed and could have another date with Florida in the Sweet 16 if they make it past McNeese State and the winner of Nebraska and Troy. If Vanderbilt beats Florida twice in a season, not only will everyone be picking Vandy to make a run after that, but they will face a likely fatigued team in the Elite 8.
In the bottom portion of the South Region, there are a ton of teams that play opposite styles, like Houston, Illinois, or North Carolina, VCU, Saint Mary’s, and Texas A&M. The bottom half of the bracket appears to be a slugfest, whereas Nebraska and Florida are the only challenges for Vandy.
Vanderbilt just misses out on ranking as a top 25 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency (7th, 31st). The Commodores are a veteran team with 2.45 average years of DI experience (18th) and four seniors in the starting lineup. Vandy doesn’t turn the ball over much (13.3%, 11th), plays fast (98th in tempo), and ranks fourth in the country for free-throw shooting (79.3%).
The Commodores have won four of its last five games and started the season 16-0 on the 13th-toughest strength of schedule in the country. The cat may be out of the bag on how good Vandy is, but they are still a dark horse to represent the South Region if they can sneak past Florida again.
Midwest Region Dark Horse: Virginia Cavaliers (+1100)
Virginia almost made the cut for teams ranked top 25 for both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re 27th on offense and 18th on defense, plus rank top 32 in two-point (44.7%, 7th) and three-point (30.9%, 32nd) defensive percentage. The Cavaliers have two flame throwers from deep in Sam Lewis and Malik Thomas, who shoot 40.7% and 34.3% from three-point range, plus are a well-balanced team with nine different players who average at least 16 minutes.
Virginia is one of the most underrated squads in the entire field and could make a run thanks to injuries to two other teams. Michigan is the top seed in the Midwest but has struggled without LJ Cason (ACL), winning by four or fewer points in three of the last five games and losing its previous outing, while Texas Tech is without JT Toppin and landed the No. 5 seed.
Both Michigan and Texas Tech could face Alabama, which owns the fourth-worst defensive turnover percentage in the country (12.6%), and there’s also Iowa State and its 340th-rated free-throw percentage (67.2%), which will likely be directly in Virginia’s path. There is a possibility that the Hoos make a run when no one expects it.
West Region Dark Horse: Wisconsin Badgers (+1500)
The Bagders are excellent in a few areas that are needed to succeed in March. Wisconsin ranks third in the country with a 12.8% offensive turnover percentage, elite free-throw shooting (78.6%, 12th), and ranks just outside the top 50 in three-point shooting (36.1%, 53rd). Wisconsin is a veteran team with 2.35 years of average DI experience (26th-most) and relies on its superb guard play from upperclassmen Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who carry this team.
The downfall of Wisconsin can be how often it shoots the triple. The Badgers score 42.5% of their points from the three ball, which ranks fourth-most in the country behind Army, VMI, and Texas Tech. Living by the three is dangerous because in a win-or-go-home situation, you can also die by the three.
As far as their path to the Final Four, Wisconsin will be in a anticpated shootout with High Point in the first round, then likely face Arkansas, the SEC Player of the Year, Darius Acuff. If Wisconsin survives that matchup, No. 1 seed Arizona will likely be waiting in the wings as Wisconsin’s biggest test. The Badgers have wins over Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan this season, so beating Arizona is possible, but being a No. 5 seed opposed to a No. 3 seed wasn’t ideal in this bracket. On the bottom half of the bracket, Purdue, Gonzaga, Miami, or Missouri could d be waiting as a Final Four matchup, which could all be positive matchups for Wisconsin.
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