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Big Ten men’s Bracketology: Wisconsin, Maryland, Illinois are undervalued

We have reached the point in the college basketball season where we have enough data to know which teams are overperforming based on their record. A sample of 20-23 games is big enough to know a lot about teams on a possession-to-possession basis but also small enough that anomalies can unduly influence their records.

RELATED: Auburn, Duke remain 1-2 atop latest AP Top 25; Maryland jumps in for first time since 2023

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Big Ten men’s teams that are currently projected to make the NCAA tournament and see who is punching above their weight and who may pleasantly surprise in the biggest games.

No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers

Projected seed: 3

This week’s schedule: at Iowa (Peacock), vs. USC Fri.
The Boilermakers take over this spot mostly by default after a quiet week that only saw them beat rival Indiana at home. KenPom and the NET Rankings like Purdue as the best team in the conference, mostly on the strength of an offense that ranks in the top 25 in effective field goal percentage.

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No. 9 Michigan State Spartans

Projected seed: 4

This week’s schedule: at UCLA Tue. (Peacock), vs. Oregon Sat.
A road loss to USC was enough to knock the Spartans from the top of the Big Ten in the AP rankings and from a 3-seed in these projections. The underlying metrics do not like Michigan State quite as much as its 18-3 record would indicate; the Spartans are 17th in the KenPom rankings and 20th in the NET rankings.

No. 21 Wisconsin Badgers

Projected seed: 4

This week’s schedule: vs. Wisconsin Tue. (Peacock), at Iowa Sat. (NBC)
The Badgers are coming off a 1-1 road trip and face two desperate bubble teams this week. Wisconsin can execute as well as anyone with the ball, boasting a top 10 offensive rating per KenPom. Combine that with a respectable defense and lights-out free throw shooting, and you have a recipe for a lot of wins.

No. 18 Maryland Terrapins

Projected seed: 5

This week’s schedule: at Ohio State Thu., vs. Rutgers Sun.
Top 20 marks in both KenPom and NET indicate that Maryland may be a sleeping giant in this conference. The Terps are also finding their stride on their four-game winning streak. A team that ranks top-25 in offensive and defensive rating and consistently wins the turnover battle is a force to be reckoned with.

No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini

Projected seed: 5

This week’s schedule: at Rutgers Wed., at Minnesota Sat.
The Illini are an interesting statistical study. They are the second-best team in the Big Ten by KenPom and NET, with a top 25 offense and top 15 defense despite a 15-7 record. Illinois is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and puts up more threes than almost anyone, but both the Illini and their opponents struggle to actually make threes.

No. 24 Michigan Wolverines

Projected seed: 6

This week’s schedule: vs. Oregon Wed., at Indiana Sat.
The Wolverines are a top 25 team in offensive and defensive rating and place top 20 in NET, so this is a team that gets it done on both ends of the floor. In fact, Michigan is top-10 in effective field goal percentage and top-40 in defensive field goal percentage. Turnover margin is where the Wolverines can improve to close the season.

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Oregon Ducks

Projected seed: 7

This week’s schedule: at Michigan Wed., at Michigan State Sat.
Three straight losses to Minnesota, UCLA and Nebraska have the Ducks teetering on the edge of disaster. Statistically, Oregon does not succeed enough in any metric to explain their top-20 strength of record. It is possible the Ducks have been more fortunate than good, as their eight Quad 1 wins have come by an average margin of five points.

UCLA Bruins

Projected seed: 7

This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan State Tue. (Peacock), vs. Penn State Sat.
The Bruins went from losing five of six to winning five straight, including home victories over Wisconsin and Oregon. UCLA is typically strong on defense and dominant in the turnover battle but struggles with rebounding and offensive firepower prevent it from joining the nation’s elite.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Projected seed: 10

This week’s schedule: vs. Maryland Thu., at Nebraska Sun.
The Buckeyes have played KenPom’s seventh most difficult schedule, which explains how a 13-9 team can approach the top 25 in Net Rating. Only three of the Buckeyes’ final nine games come against teams currently projected to make the field, so it’s time to stack victories instead of excuses.