It was barely more than a month ago that the college basketball world was debating if Iowa’s resume was strong enough to earn them an invite to the NCAA Tournament. This evening, they take the court in Houston against Illinois with a birth in the Final Four on the line.
The Hawkeyes continued their unlikely run with a win over Nebraska Thursday night rallying from a double-digit deficit to secure a 77-71 win. Bennett Stirtz played all 40 minutes to lead Iowa to their first Elite Eight since 1987. They have not reached the Final Four since 1980 when a coach by the name of Lute Olsen guided them to a win over Georgetown in the Elite Eight.
Illinois reached the Elite Eight with a 65-55 win over Houston. The Illini locked down defensively giving up just 22 points to the Cougars in the first half before finding their flow on offense after halftime and rolling to the win. It is Illinois’ second trip in the last three seasons to the Elite Eight under Head Coach Brad Underwood. They are looking to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2005 under Head Coach Bruce Weber.
As member of the Big Ten, these schools have met already this season. Illinois won the first matchup, 75-69, on January 11, 2026, at Iowa City. Keaton Wagler led the way with 19 points and David Mirkovic controlled the backboard grabbing 12 rebounds in the win for the Illini.
Illinois takes the court as a heavy favorite due to their efficient shooting, superior rebounding, and high-level defensive play, ranking Top 50 in 2P% and 3P% defense, but Head Coach Ben McCollum has the Hawkeyes playing their best basketball of the season. Against Nebraska, the Hawkeyes shot 51.9% from the field and 43.3% from beyond the arc.
For the Illini to cut down the nets today in Houston, they need to control the paint on both ends of the floor and dominate on the boards. In addition, Illinois must knock down their free throws. They were just 12-21 against Houston on Thursday night.
Defensively, Iowa must slow down and turn over the Illinois backcourt of Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell. Iowa thrives on creating transition buckets, scoring 20 points off takeaways in their last game. The pair have controlled the pace of each game the Illini have played in this Tournament. It is also a case of mind over matter. Iowa must be ready physically and mentally following an emotional and physical game against Nebraska Thursday.
Fun Fact: While its doubtful either team reaches 83 points tonight, Illinois is 27-1 this season when allowing fewer than 83 points but 0-7 when their opponent hits that number.
Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
Game Details and How to Watch Live: Illinois vs. Iowa
- Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
- Time: 6:09PM EST
- Site: Toyota Center
- City: Houston, TX
- Network/Streaming: TBS, truTV
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Game Odds: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
The latest odds as of Saturday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Illinois (-305), Iowa (+245)
- Spread: Illinois -7.5
- Total: 137.5
This game opened Illinois -6.5 with the Total set at 141.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Illinois vs. Iowa
Illinois Fighting Illini
- G Kylan Boswell
- G Keaton Wagler
- F David Mirkovic
- F Jake Davis
- C Tomislav Ivisic
Iowa Hawkeyes
- G Bennett Stirtz
- G Tavion Banks
- G Kael Combs
- F Cam Manyawu
- F Cooper Koch
Important stats, trends and insights: Illinois vs. Iowa
- Illinois is 20-15 ATS this season
- Iowa is 21-15 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in just 14 of Illinois’ 35 games this season (14-21)
- The OVER has cashed in 21 of Iowa’s 36 games this season (21-15)
- David Mirkovic and Keaton Wagler became the first freshman duo in NCAA history to both record double-doubles in the same tournament game in their Sweet 16 win over Houston
- Illinois has won 9 of the last 10 games against Iowa both on the Moneyline and ATS
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s game between Illinois and Iowa:
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Illinois -7.5
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 137.5
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