No. 2 seed UConn faces No. 3 seed Michigan State in a highly anticipated Sweet 16 matchup Friday night in Washington, D.C.
The matchup is a tactical duel featuring UConn’s complex offense, which thrives on off-ball screens and cuts, against Michigan State’s disciplined defensive schemes. At its core, this game comes down to Michigan State attempting to derail UConn’s motion-based offense with their transition game and defensive rebounding.
A major focal point will be the performance of UConn forward Alex Karaban, who takes the court riding a heater, having shot 9-16 in each of the Huskies’ first two games of the Tournament. The senior is also 8-17 from beyond the arc in those games. Karaban’s outside shooting combined with Tarris Reed Jr.’s dominance on the boards – 40 rebounds in the last two games – has UConn playing some of their best basketball of the season.
Michigan State will likely counter those strengths of UConn with the quickness of Coen Carr and Cam Ward to disrupt and wear down the veteran Karaban and the combination of Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler to battle Reed on the boards. While those players are all large pieces for Tom Izzo the Spartans go as Jeremy Fears Jr. goes. The Sophomore point guard dished out a tournament-best 16 assists in Sparty’s 77-69 win over Louisville.
Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
Game Details and How to Watch Live: Michigan State vs. UConn
- Date: Friday, March 27, 2026
- Time: 9:45PM EST
- Site: Capital One Arena
- City: Washington, D.C.
- Network/Streaming: CBS
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Game Odds: Michigan State Spartans vs. UConn Huskies
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Michigan State (+105), UConn (-125)
- Spread: UConn -2.5
- Total: 135.5
This game opened Michigan State -1.5 with the Total set at 140.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Michigan State vs. UConn
Michigan State Spartans
- G Jeremy Fears Jr.
- F Jordan Scott
- F Jaxon Kohler
- F Coen Carr
- C Carson Cooper
UConn Huskies
- G Malachi Smith
- G Solo Ball
- G Braylon Mullins
- F Alex Karaban
- F Tarris Reed Jr.
Important stats, trends and insights: Michigan State vs. UConn
- UConn is 14-22 ATS this season
- Michigan State is 19-15 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 17 of UConn’s 36 games this season (17-19)
- The OVER has cashed in 16 of Michigan State’s 34 games this season (16-18)
- The Spartans have won and covered the last 2 times these schools have played but they have not played since 2021
- Braylon Mullins is averaging 14.5 points per game but is just 2-14 from deep in the NCAA Tournament
- Jeremy Fears Jr. has tallied 27 assists but 9 turnovers through 2 games of the NCAA Tournament
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday’s game between Michigan State vs. UConn:
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Michigan -8.5
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 171.5
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