The Sweet 16 tips of Thursday and after a successful round of 32, I am ready to keep the ball rolling. Last season, every single favorite won in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, and this year, I don’t see much changing. Favorites dominated the round of 32 in this tournament and I think the favorites roll in the Sweet 16. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Purdue (-7.5) vs Texas: O/U 147.5
Matt Painter and Purdue continued their round of 64 and 32 dominance with wins over Queens and Miami, and now turn their attention to Sean Miller and Texas. The Longhorns are considered the Cinderella of the tournament as a No. 11 seed and I think this is where their magical run ends.
Purdue is 22-of-38 from three (57.8%) in the tournament, 29-of-34 from the free-throw line (85.2%), and 41 assists. The Boilermakers offense has been superb thus far with their rebounding being the biggest issue. Purdue allowed Miami to grab 14 offensive rebounds and too many second chance opportunities, but were able to survive. Purdue’s held Queens and Miami to a combined 12-of-44 from three (27.2%) and 15 total free-throws.
All three of Texas’ opponents have recorded seven turnovers for 21 total through three tournament games. The Longhorns ranked 352nd in defensive turnover percentage during the regular season and 253rd in three-point defense (35.1%), which are both major concerns. Gonzaga and BYU went 8-of-38 from three (21%) against Texas, while NC State was 6-of-16 (37.5%), but Purdue is light years better than both of them when it comes to three-point shooting, plus turning the ball over (18th in offensive turnover percentage).
Texas ate up inside the paint against all three opponents, but I am not so sure that will happen against Purdue with Trey Kauffman-Renn and Oscar Cluff playing so well. Purdue should be able to pull away from Texas in this game with its three-point shooting, limited turnovers, and size down low.
As long as Texas isn’t white hot from three or getting over a dozen offensive rebounds and scoring on them, then the Boilermakers should score close yo 80 points and if they are up at the end, Texas will be fouling helping the Boilermakers hit the Over 77.5 for their team total.
Pick: Purdue Team Total Over 77.5 (1 unit)
Iowa vs Nebraska (-1.5): O/U 132.5
The two meetings between Iowa and Nebraska featured low-scoring first halves. The two combined for 61 and 56 points by halftime, going 2-0 to the Under, and the 1H total is set at 61.5 here. I have to go under here as well in the third meeting with an Elite 8 trip on the line.
There are a lot of factors as to why liking the Under is a good bet.
There is familiairty between the two teams, an obvious physciality, and there’s been a lot of complaining from coaches and NCAA officials about the PSI of the basketballs and which balls they are using because both vary from game to game and region to region. Nebraska might not even be here if their balls weren’t as filled against Vanderbilt, but I digress.
This will be one of the toughest games to handicap who wins, while I know Nebraska has the better team and depth, Iowa has the best player on the floor in Bennett Stirtz and possibly the higher ceiling after beating Florida — I will chicken out of picking a winner and go with the first half Under to cash again down to 60.5.
Pick: 1H Under 61.5 (1 unit)
Arizona (-7.5) vs Arkansas: O/U 166.5
Arkansas has beaten two top 15 teams all year, Texas Tech back in December and Vanderbilt twice. This will be the toughest challenge of the season, and the challenge starts and ends with scoring versus Arizona’s front line and 7-man rotation. Arkansas has plenty of scorers outside of Darius Acuff, like Billy Richmond, Maleek Thomas, and DJ Wagner.
However, Arizona owns a top-five rated defense, elite two-Point percentage (43.7%, 2nd) and effective field goal percentage (44.8%, 1st). Scoring in the paint will be difficult for the Razorbacks and after putting up 97 and 94 points on Hawaii and High Point, getting to 80 points on arguably the best team in the country will be a struggle. I think Arkansas’ Team Total Under 79.5 and 78,5 is the best bet, and I think Arizona wins and covers this game. I am not worried about the near ATS loss against Utah State, because Arizona dominated a majority of the game and can here as well.
Pick: Arkansas Team Total Under 78.5 (1 unit), Arizona -7.5 (1 unit)
Houston (-2.5) vs Illinois: O/U 139.5
One of the, if not, the best game of the Sweet 16 will be Houston versus Illinois. Both squads looked up to par through two games, so there is no surprise the spread is just -2.5 at the opening line and -3.5 at others.
Houston held Idaho and Texas A&M to a combined 12-of-54 from three (22.2%), plus 0.72 and 0.89 points per possession. The Cougars dominated on the defensive end and became the fifth team in modern history to win their first two round games by 30-plus points.
Illinois won its round of 64 matchup by 35 points and its second by 21, so like Houston, the Illini have dominated too. The Illini held Penn and VCU to 16-of-62 from three (25.8%) and eight total free throws. Both Illinois and Houston have had efficient offensive showings and showed minimal flaws setting up a potential classic clash.
I am concerned with who Illinois has played so far, an Ivy League team and Atlantic 10 squad. Houston is still hungry after losing in the national championship game last year and looks just as good as Michigan or Florida so far. I think the Cougars are a real threat to win it all and advance past the Illini. I lean the Over 139.5 as both squads rank top 10 in offense efficiency.
Pick: Houston ML (1 unit)
First Four Record: 1-0 +1 unit
Round of 64 Record: 12-9 +2.1 units
Round of 32 Record: 9-6 +2.53 units
Futures Record: 1-2 +0.12 units
Overall Record: 23-17 +5.75 units
NCAA Tournament Future Picks
1 unit: Houston to make the Elite 8 (+110)
1 unit: Purdue to make the Elite 8 (+105)
1 unit: Iowa State to make the Elite 8 (-130)
1 unit: Arizona to win the National Championship (+380)
0.5 unit: Houston to win the National Championship (+1200)
0.5 unit: Houston to win the National Championship (+1100)
0.5 unit: Iowa State to win the National Championship (+1800)
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