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St. John’s vs. Providence Big East Tournament predictions: Odds, recent stats and best bets for March 12

The game we all have talked about wanting to see in this week’s Big East Tournament is St. John’s vs. UConn. The game we all quietly wanted to see is St. John’s (25-6, 18-2) vs. Providence (15-17, 7-13). That is exactly who matches up this afternoon in the Second Round at Madison Square Garden.

These schools split the regular season series. Providence handed St. John’s their only Big East home loss of the season, 77-71, on January 3. Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor tallied 33 points in the losing effort, but the rest of the Johnnies shot just 22%. St. John’s got revenge with a 79-69 win at Providence on Valentine’s Day, a game marred by a brawl that occurred after Providence’s Duncan Powell took out former Friar Bryce Hopkins as he raced for a breakaway layup. Its that play that has people clamoring for Round 3.

No question St. John’s is the better team. The Johnnies won the regular season title again this season. Rick Pitino has won back-to-back conference crowns in his two years guiding the Red Storm. That said, will his squad be distracted or focused on the wrong things because of the way things went down the last time these schools met? And to that end, will Providence find motivation as they line up against the Red Storm knowing they have won at MSG already this season? The stakes are high and the emotions will be as well.

Providence advanced to the second round of the Big East Tournament thanks to a 91-81 win over Butler yesterday. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 25-9 lead, but the Friars made 13 of 22 three-pointers in the final 30 minutes to win going away. Stefan Vaaks, Ryan Mela, and Jaylin Sellers combined to score 74 points for their rumored to be lame duck coach Kim English.

Providence is ranked No. 83 in the NET while St. John’s is ranked 21st.

Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch Live: St. John’s vs. Providence

  • Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
  • Time: 12PM EST
  • Site: Madison Square Garden
  • City: New York, NY
  • Network/Streaming: Peacock

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Game Odds: St. John’s vs. Providence

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: St. John’s Red Storm (OFF), Providence Friars (OFF)
  • Spread: St. John’s -11.5
  • Total: 158.5 points

This game opened St. John’s -10.5 with the Total set at 160.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!

Expected Starting Lineups: St. John’s vs. Providence

St. John’s Red Storm

  • G Dylan Darling
  • G Oziyah Sellers
  • F Bryce Hopkins
  • F Zuby Ejiofor
  • F Dillon Mitchell

Providence Friars

  • G Jaylin Sellers
  • G Ryan Mela
  • G Stefan Vaaks
  • F Oswin Erhunmwunse
  • F Jamier Jones
Vaaks, Providence move past Butler
The crew offers their reactions to Providence beating Butler in the Big East Tournament to set up a grudge match with St. John’s.

Injury Report: St. John’s vs. Providence

St. John’s Red Storm

  • Kelvin Odih (leg) is listed as questionable for today’s game
  • Casper Pohto (hip) has been declared OUT of today’s game
  • Imran Suljanovic (knee) has been declared OUT of today’s game

Providence Friars

  • Corey Floyd Jr. (hamstring) is listed as questionable for today’s game
  • Rich Barron (concussion) has been declared OUT for today’s game
  • Jaylen Harrell (undisclosed) has been declared OUT for today’s game
  • Daquan Davis (knee) has been declared OUT for today’s game

Important stats, trends and insights: St. John’s vs. Providence

  • St. John’s is 16-15 ATS overall this season
  • Providence is 19-13 ATS overall this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 12 of St. John’s 31 games this season (12-19)
  • The OVER has cashed in 22 of Providence’s 32 games this season (22-10)
  • Zuby Ejiofor was selected as the Big East Player of the Year AND the Big East Defensive Player of the Year
  • Over his last 6 games, Jaylin Sellers is averaging 22.8pts on 53.1% shooting from field and 53.3% from 3
  • Stefan Vaaks against Butler yesterday scored 28pts (9-16 FG, 8-13 3’s, 2-2 FT) and added 3 assists
  • Bryce Hopkins is 3rd in the Big East in FT attempts (159) this season

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between St. John’s and Providence:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on St. John’s -11.5
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 158.5

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
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Big East/Providence.svg Providence Friars
Big East/St. John's.svg St. John's Red Storm
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