Finding the next members of the 3,000-hit club
Angels 1B/DH Albert Pujols joined the 3,000-hit club on Friday, dropping a single into right field at Safeco Field. He’s the 32nd member of the rather exclusive club. Only two other active players have 3,000 hits: Ichiro Suzuki and Adrian Beltre.
There are only seven other active players with 2,000 or more hits: Miguel Cabrera (2,666), Robinson Cano (2,410), Jose Reyes, (2,100), Nick Markakis (2,097), Victor Martinez (2,062), Adrian Gonzalez (2,028), and Joe Mauer (2,016). Let’s run through that list and handicap each player’s odds of getting to 3,000.
Miguel Cabrera: Very likely
Cabrera, who turned 35 years old last month, just went on the 10-day disabled list with a strained right hamstring. And while he has hit well to begin the 2018 season, he’s coming off of the worst season of his career last year: he played in 130 games, posted a .728 OPS, and hit only 16 home runs. It’s very tempting to look at all of this and conclude that Cabrera will fall short of 3,000.
However, Cabrera is under contract through at least 2023. Barring some serious physical ailment that impedes him from playing the game, he’s going to ride out the next five years and collect his additional $154 million. Cabrera is 334 hits shy of 3,000. Let’s conservatively assume he gets another 80 hits in the 2018 season. He would be about 250 hits shy. He’d then need to only average 50 hits a year through the end of his contract to reach the summit.
Nothing’s ever guaranteed in life, but Cabrera reaching 3,000 is close to guaranteed.
Robinson Cano: Very likely
Cano, also 35 years old, sits 590 hits shy of 3,000. And, like Cabrera, Cano is under contract through 2023, earning $120 million over the final five years of his deal. Between now and the end of 2023, Cano would need to average just under 100 hits per season to reach 3,000.
Last year, Cano hit .280, his lowest batting average since 2008. He’s hitting .283 this year. It’s fair to say Cano’s bat isn’t quite what it once was -- during his prime, Cano hit above .300 from 2009-14. Cano, unlike Cabrera, has been able to avoid injury throughout his 14-year career, playing in at least 150 games every season since 2007. He’s getting about 600 at-bats per season as a result, so even in a year like last year, he still racked up 166 hits. Even if Cano’s bat slows him to only 150 hits over the next four years, he still joins the club.
Like Cabrera, Cano would have to suffer a serious injury in order to not reach 3,000 career hits.
Jose Reyes: Not gonna happen
Reyes, 34, is no longer a full-time player, currently coming off the bench for the Mets. He’s had an abysmal year so far, batting .139 in 38 plate appearances. While he still has a bit of speed -- he stole 24 bases last year -- he’s a liability on defense and his bat seems to have degraded to the point where he’s even a detriment as a bench player.
Reyes is 900 hits shy of 3,000. In order to reach that goal, Reyes would need to be an everyday player, averaging about 150 hits a year for six more years. Anything less than full-time playing time makes the goal nigh impossible. And so it is impossible. It’s quite possible Reyes doesn’t even command a minor league contract next offseason.
Nick Markakis: Not gonna happen
Markakis is a bit of a sexy pick to get to 3,000 considering the career year he’s having thus far in 2018. He leads the National League in both batting average (.344) and hits (45) in 33 games. Over his career, Markakis has been remarkably consistent, typically playing in 155-plus games and racking up around 170 hits.
Markakis, however, is 34 years old and he is going to regress to his mean before the season is out. He’s not going to hit .344 all year. Barring injury, he will still finish with around 170 hits, which will put him at about 2,225 hits for his career. Markakis is also a free agent after the season. Front offices now aren’t going to be enamored by his terrific performance over a month and a half, so he’ll still likely have to settle for a one- or two-year deal and as he approaches his late-30’s, teams aren’t going to be as willing to sign him as a full-time player. With presumably 775 hits to go after this season, Markakis would have to be a full-time player and hit close to his career average for close to five more seasons.
Victor Martinez: Impossible
Martinez, 39, is 938 hits short of 3,000. He’s had a terrific career, but he’d have to play into his late 40’s in order for 3,000 to be attainable.
Adrian Gonzalez: Impossible
Gonzalez, who turns 36 years old tomorrow, has likewise had a terrific career but is too far away (972 hits) to have any kind of shot considering how much his bat has waned in recent years.
Joe Mauer: Impossible
It looked like Mauer would have a decent shot to get to 3,000 after his 2010 campaign, but injuries slowed him down considerably. While he’s still a productive player, he’s 984 hits away at 35 years old. Unlike Cabrera and Cano, Mauer will not be under contract after this season. He could choose to retire if he wanted to, or only play another couple of years before calling it quits. Mauer is also a first baseman/DH now and as we saw with last year’s free agent market, teams aren’t champing at the bit to sign older 1B/DH types.
Looking to the future
Bryce Harper has 813 hits a month and a half into his age-25 season. Barring injury, it’s fair to say he’ll probably get at least another 100 before the season is out. The list of players who had at least 900 hits by the end of their age-25 season is a good one and includes a lot of members of the 3,000-hit club, including Beltre, Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez. It’s impossible to predict what Harper will do over the next 10 years, but to this point, he’s put himself in a good position to eventually be able to accrue 3,000 hits over his career.
Mike Trout ended his age-25 season with over 1,000 hits. That club is even more exclusive, including the likes of Ty Cobb, Mel Ott, Al Kaline,Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, and Rogers Hornsby along with Rodriguez, Cabrera, and Ken Griffey, Jr. As is the case with anyone still about 2,000 hits shy, we can’t predict the future, but we can say that few players have gotten to the point Trout is out now without reaching 3,000 career hits.
Jose Altuve, a three-time batting champion, racked up 200 or more hits in each of the past four seasons. He ended his age-27 season with over 1,200 hits, which put him in a lot of the same company as Trout -- Cobb, Ott, Rodriguez, Kaline, Aaron, Foxx, et. al. The biggest impediments on Altuve’s way are health and age-related decline. If Altuve can rack up 200 hits a season (or close to it) for another six seasons, he’ll be on the precipice in his mid-30’s. Suffering a significant injury and/or tapering off with the bat too soon will hamper his chances big time, though.
Manny Machado entered his age-25 season with 862 hits. If he were to get another 130 this year, he’d be at about 1,050 at the end of his age-25 season. Not a lot of players have ever done that and most of those that have have been legendary. The same caveats apply here, of course.
Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Correa are in the same conversation but we’re still a bit too early in their careers to make a judgment.