The final race of the regular season fills the last playoff spot Saturday evening at Daytona International Speedway (7 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock). Superspeedway racing is a unique challenge that requires more than a fast car and good drafting skills.
How much do you know about superspeedway racing and which drivers are best at it? Test your knowledge with a seven-question true/false quiz.
Statement 1: Winning at Daytona requires qualifying near the front of the field.
Drafting — the main point of superspeedway racing — produces more position and lead changes than any other type of racing. A driver can gain a number of positions in a single lap around Daytona’s 2.5-mile oval.
With drafting playing such a prominent role, qualifying doesn’t matter as much at superspeedways. Daytona’s single-car qualifying runs mostly determine who has the best engine and the least drag.
A top driver with a fast car who starts up front can still finish in the back of the pack. For example: Kyle Larson has two superspeedway poles in the Next Gen car. In 10 tries, he has no wins and only one top-five finish.
Superspeedways — run with the Next Gen or the Gen-6 car — have the lowest correlation between starting and finishing position. At intermediate tracks in the Next Gen car, 100% of the races were won by drivers starting in the top 15. At superspeedways, only 40% of the winners come from the top 15.
This statement is false.
Statement 2: Drivers are just as likely to DNF at a superspeedway as they are to finish the race running
This is one of those statements that seems like it ought to be true.
But out of the 377 starts at the 10 Next Gen superspeedway races, 109 cars failed to finish the race. That’s a percentage of 28.9%.
Although there have been some superspeedway races where half the field failed to finish the race, that’s an exception rather than the average.
This statement is false.
Statement 3: Only one driver has finished all 10 superspeedway races in the Next Gen era
This statement is false only because two drivers have completed all 10 superspeedway races. Martin Truex Jr. finished all 10 races, nine of them on the lead lap. Ryan Blaney completed but two races on the lead lap.
If you’re looking for other drivers good at finishing superspeedway races, Corey LaJoie and Kyle Busch each have only one DNF on superspeedways in the last two years.
On the other side of the spectrum, Larson has the worst luck of any full-time driver at superspeedways in the last two years. He has failed to finish seven of the 10 races.
Statement 4: Drivers are just as likely to be involved in a caution-causing incident at a superspeedway as not.
‘Just as likely’ implies that 50% of cars are involved in caution-causing incidents. But the rate is actually higher than 50%.
In the 10 Next Gen superspeedway races, 229 cars were involved in accidents. Ten cars spun, two stalled and six cars had tire issues that necessitated cautions.
That gives us a rough estimate that a driver in the last two years has on average a 60.7% chance of getting caught up in an accident and a 65.5% chance of being involved in an incident that causes a caution. It’s a rough estimate because some drivers are involved in more than one incident during a race.
And those are just the incidents severe enough to cause cautions. These numbers don’t include cars destroyed on the last lap.
The correct answer is false. To be fair, it’s another trick question. But you should’ve seen it coming after question three.
Statement 5: Kyle Larson has the record for superspeedway accidents in the last two years.
Since the Next Gen car debuted, Larson, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Harrison Burton have each been involved in nine accidents out of 10 superspeedway races.
Busch, Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain and Todd Gilliland come in at eight accidents apiece on superspeedways. LaJoie, Truex, Chris Buescher, Kevin Harvick, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Bubba Wallace and Brad Keselowski have each participated in seven accidents in the last two years.
Superspeedway ace and Daytona 500 winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has only six accidents, putting him in a five-way tie for 17th-most accidents on superspeedways.
This statement is false.
Statement 6: Chase Elliott is the winningest driver at superspeedways in the Next Gen car
Elliott has two wins at superspeedways, as does teammate Byron. But Elliott has run one fewer superspeedway race than Byron, which gives Elliott a win rate of 22.2% and Byron 20.0%.
For drivers like Elliott who are still fighting for a playoff spot, only a win matters. For the 15 drivers already in the playoffs, Daytona is a chance to strengthen seeding for the playoffs.
If you’re looking for a driver likely to finish in the top 10, Blaney has done so seven times in the last 10 superspeedway races. He also has a 40% top-five rate.
The statement is true.
Statement 7: Because of his two wins and lower accident rate than William Byron, Chase Elliott has the best average finish at Next Gen superspeedway races.
Elliott’s 13.0 average finish at superspeedways in the Next Gen car does indeed beat Byron’s 20.4 average. Byron has been involved in more accidents and has more DNFs. Elliott has only four accidents in his nine superspeedway runs.
But Blaney and Busch both beat Elliott at superspeedway average finishes in the Next Gen car. Despite not having won a race, Blaney has the best average finish at 8.0. He hasn’t finished worse than 17th at superspeedways in the last two years.
Busch takes second place with an average finish of 12.7. His median finish is right at 10.0, which means that Busch finishes in the top 10 at superspeedways half the time.
A.J. Allmendinger — another driver desperate for a win at Daytona — has only run four superspeedways in the Next Gen car. He has the fourth-highest average finish at 13.5.
The statement is false.
Daytona — the final race of the regular season — is Saturday evening (7 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock)
