The NASCAR Cup Series season rolls into April ahead of the series’ first trip to Martinsville Speedway this Sunday (3:00 p.m. ET on FS1). Nicknamed “The Paperpclip” for its construct as a half-mile oval, it is the shortest track that the Cup Series will visit in 2024.
Richmond left us with no shortage of drama, from wet-weather tires to controversial cautions and restarts. Denny Hamlin spoiled Martin Truex Jr’s dominant night and opens this week as the betting favorite (+450) in Martinsville. Last fall’s Martinsville winner, Ryan Blaney, is priced at +700, and Truex follows suit at +750 after leading over 200 laps at Richmond.
While I do not see a ton of value early in the week, there are a handful of drivers I like to contend. Here’s what I am eyeing pre-practice and qualifying for the Cook Out 400 (odds as of Wednesday, April 3).
Martin Truex Jr. (+750)
What could have been in Richmond is what will be in Martinsville, and Truex is going to have a fire under that No. 19 car’s hood this weekend. He is a three-time Martinsville winner who finished third in the spring of 2023.
Toyota has been fast all season on short tracks and seeing how fast the No. 19 was at Richmond gives me confidence at Martinsville. Not to mention, Truex qualified inside of the Top Five in both Martinsville races last year. Of the three favorites for this race, I think the best number is with MTJ.
Joey Logano (+1100)
Logano bounced back in a big way at Richmond, scoring his first Top Five of the season with a runner-up finish. It could not have come at a better time as we head to a track where he owns an average finish of 4.0 in the Next Gen car.
Logano has always been a force to be reckoned with at “the paperclip,” having finished Top 10 in the last nine races, including five Top Fives. In a race where Ryan Blaney is rightfully one of the favorites, I believe we should be giving the same respect to the No. 22 who has a great opportunity to build on his performance at Richmond.
Alex Bowman (+3000)
I love the form that the No. 48 has shown of late. Bowman looked to be in great position to extend his run of Top Five finishes at Richmond, but an ill-timed caution burned his pit strategy, and he was never able to recover.
Bowman has looked more like “The Showman” in 2024, and I believe he can run up front. While he has not necessarily been great since his win in 2021, I am willing to disregard his history here and buy into the current speed of the car. At this price, I think it’s too long when there is not much value elsewhere.
Chase Briscoe Top Five (+275)
My favorite bet on the board this weekend is Briscoe to score a Top Five finish. Martinsville has been one of his best tracks having gone four-for-four at finishing Top 10 in the Next Gen car, including a pair of Top Fives in 2023. He also owns the fourth best driver rating and has been no stranger to success in qualifying with three-straight starts of fourth or better.
This is another race where track position is key and having an average running position of 5.5 in both trips last season proves Briscoe can keep the car up front. He is a sleeper to win outright, but he is more than capable of having Top Five speed.
Ryan Blaney/Kyle Larson to both finish Top Five (+400)
This is a fun market on Caesar’s Sportsbook, and they have both Blaney and Larson paired to finish in the Top Five. These are your 2023 winners from Martinsville, and in looking at Blaney, he has finished Top Five in three of the last four. As for Larson, he owns a pair of podium finishes and a sixth-place effort in his last three trips.
It was not surprising to see Blaney struggle at Richmond, but similarly to how his teammate Logano was able to bounce back, I see Blaney returning to form at Martinsville. To get both he and Larson, a threat to win every week, at 4-1 odds is worth a bet, especially when they are priced around (-120) and (-110) individually in the Top Five market.
Enjoy the racing this weekend.
