Week 18 in the NFL is an especially difficult handicap. From determining who is playing to who is motivated is a challenge unique to the final week of the NFL season. The boys of Bet the EDGE have accepted that assignment and offered their Best Bets as the sun sets on the regular season.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Spread: Lions -3.5 | Total: 45.5
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) likes Motown.
“I’m going with the Fighting Kneecaps, the Detroit Lions, 3½ point favorites over the Vikings. My thought here is just that one I don’t think this is a very stable market at the moment going from 3½ to 5½ to 3½. I just think that the market is perhaps pricing in rational thought and what teams normally do in this spot in terms of playing their guys, not resting guys, given the Detroit only has something to play for if the Commanders win as a two-touchdown underdog to Dallas. They effectively don’t have anything to play for. So, the lions they should rest some of their guys, but I just don’t think they’re going to.”
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Croucher continued.
“I think that Campbell after that Dallas game, I think he’s going to go all out. I think he’s going to treat this as a near playoff game to get a 12th win to effectively commemorate one of the great seasons in Detroit Lions’ history to wash away that Dallas performance to head into the playoffs with momentum. I think this is Campbell’s brand.”
New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Spread: Patriots -2.5 | Total: 30.5
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) is looking to the AFC for his top play.
“I am rolling with Bill Belichick, Jay…the writing is on the wall. This is his final head coaching stint as a New England Patriot. I will remember his tenure in New England fondly, and I think he pretty clearly still has the locker room. They played very hard for him down the stretch. It was a hard-fought loss against the Buffalo Bills despite the turnovers. It seems like pretty much everybody’s good to go. They want to send off Matthew Slater in this game as well with an impassioned performance. The weather looks absolutely atrocious. We’re going to get like 25 mile-an-hour winds here and, you know, sleet and wintry mix. So, it’s going to be quintessential Belichick weather.”
But it is not just about Belichick in this game for Drew. It is also about the Patriots’ opponent.
“The Jets have a lot of players that I think are live for making business decisions. I felt that way when I was watching the Browns’ game. It feels like there’s a lot of Jets who are kind of dealing with ‘Well, I may not be here next year or if I am here next year, I’m going to need another contract. I don’t want to get hurt.’ Tough for me to see how Robert Saleh gets that group motivated to go into New England and and put together an all-time performance…Ultimately, this is an opportunity for the Patriots in general to have a pretty emotional send off for Belichick. So. I’ll lay the points with the Patriots.”
While much of Week 18 features one or two teams sitting a good percentage of their starters or with seemingly no motivation to perform, Sunday Night’s game on NBC featuring Josh Allen and the Bills in Miami to face Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins has all the ingredients of a playoff game. Miami has already clinched a playoff spot, but a win secures the 2-seed for the Dolphins. It is all or nothing for the Bills, though. They must win to make the playoffs and a win also secures the AFC East title. It is truly a playoff game.
Enjoy.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
