Sunday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots - Same Game Parlay
After a crazy week in the NFL, we are back with a divisional game for Sunday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins travel to Gillette Stadium to take on Mac Jones and the New England Patriots. Patrick Mahomes ran for 45 yards to easily cash his over 17.5 rushing prop and move us to a sweat-free 1-0 on the season. I’ve decided to go to DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s bet for a Same Game Parlay.
Leg 1: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
With the Dolphins giving up 233 rush yards to the Chargers last week, betting on Stevenson rushing over tonight is almost mandatory. Austin Eckler and Josh Kelly ran the ball 16 times, both over 90 yards.
Even without using last week’s game as evidence, Stevenson would be in consideration. The University of Oklahoma product is a hard runner who usurped Damien Harris as the Patriots’ leadback last season. With Harris gone, he doesn’t have much competition for carries. Sure, the Patriots brought in former Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. However, Elliott only had seven carries and saw just a 34.6% snap share.
Looking into Stevenson’s numbers last season, this angle has more promise. He had a low stuff rate, one of the highest juke rates, and a massive 4.6 true yards per carry. His ability to break for big runs makes this number seem even better after the Dolphins’ poor run defense last week.
Leg 2: Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions
Unfortunately, when the Dolphins played the Patriots toward the end of the season, Tua Tagovailoa was out, and the Dolphins were forced to use Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater. However, in the first meeting between the two teams, Hill collected eight catches on 12 targets. In week one, he saw 11 receptions on 15 targets, good enough for a 35.7% target share, which was fifth best last week.
Last season, his 31.6% target share was the highest in the NFL. As a focal point of the offense, Miami plans to feed him the ball often.
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Leg 3: Dolphins Moneyline
Despite the high success home divisional dogs have against the spread, I like the Dolphins here. It feels like the days of the Dolphins always losing in Gillette have gone with Tom Brady. Early in his career, Tua is 4-0 against the Patriots. In his last two starts, he has a passer rating of 99.55.
Not only does Tua’s success against the Patriots have me wanting to bet the Dolphins here. I don’t mind attacking a banged-up offensive line for the Patriots. Offensive linemen Cole Strange, Trent Brown, David Andrews, and Sidy Sow are all questionable tonight. The Dolphins’ run defense and pass rush weren’t great in week one, but even the slightest advantage on the lines works for me.
DraftKings Sportsbook SPG: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards, Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions, Dolphins Moneyline (+600)