After a brief International break, the Premier League is back in action for Matchweek 5. After four matchweeks, Manchester City tops the table, followed by Tottenham, Liverpool, and West Ham. Although Arsenal are fifth on the table, they look to be the most likely challenger for Manchester City’s title.
This week, after watching the line movement, I’ve decided to make a play on the defending champions against West Ham.
West Ham United vs Manchester City (Saturday, 10 AM ET, USA Network)
West Ham are off to a blazing start. They’ve picked up 10 points from an available 12 and are tied on points for a spot in the Champions League next season. What’s most impressive is the nine goals they have scored in four matches. It seems David Moyes might have unlocked this team. It’s early, but West Ham supporters should be happy with what they’ve seen on the pitch.
I think a few people are overreacting to what they’ve seen from West Ham. They have been driving the price for Manchester City into a playable range. Generally, I would stay off this line, but more money poured in on West Ham made me dig deeper into the numbers.
I built a model that projects teams due for positive or negative regression. It’s not always perfect in soccer due to the minimal scoring, but the same model helped us cash Crystal Palace’s team total for plus odds. So, I tend to trust it at baseline.
Currently, West Ham are the lead candidate for negative regression. West Ham are averaging 2.25 goals per contest. Their average xG is 1.23. Most of the regression is due to the lack of shots and shot-creating actions. West Ham are 16th in shot-creating actions per game. It’s not all that bad since they are fourth goal-creating actions. However, one of those must give or come back to the mean.
Their lack of final third touches makes me think their regression will be negative. They are 15th in attacking third touches and 16th in middle third touches. The amount of perfection required to keep scoring goals at such a high clip.
Unfortunately, they take on the defending champions, who are also very stout in front of net. City are the best team in limiting opponent touches and shots. They allow less than two shots on target per match and just 0.5 goals conceded per match.
That said, I am betting Manchester City to win and over 1.5 goals (-145) for 0.5 units and Manchester City to win and under 4.5 goals (-115) for 0.5 units.
City win this match, but I’m not laying -205 on their moneyline. Since 2020, all seven matches have seen over 1.5 goals and under 4.5 as well. This City team historically does not run it up away from the Etihad. So, under 4.5 should be safe if they win.
City will have suffocating possession. In both wins last season, they have had 69% and 75% possession. Pep Guardiola had expressed his concern about them not finishing their chances. Ahead of Champions League play, he wants that cleaned up.
This is a play on the line movement here. Neither should be playable. It also helps to have negative regression on our side for West Ham.
Bets: Manchester City to win and over 1.5 goals (-145) for 0.5 units | Manchester City to win and under 4.5 goals (-115) for 0.5 units
