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Premier League: Matchweek 4 Betting Power Rankings

Crystal Palace - Brentford

Brentford’s Mads Bidstrup, manager Thomas Frank and Mads Bech Sorensen react after the final whistle the Premier League match at the Brentford Community Stadium, London. Picture date: Friday August 13, 2021. (Photo by Nick Potts/PA Images via Getty Images)

PA Images via Getty Images

The Premier League Betting Power Rankings continue into Matchweek 4; remember, these are not your typical power rankings.

These do not list the best teams in the Premier League. However, they are the best teams to bet on or against in that given week. Each team in these rankings will be listed in order of betting preference.

My goal is to find the most profitable angle and attack it. These power rankings will help with that. It will consist of the best teams to bet on with information that should help you consider which wagers to make during the week.

However, if you are looking for traditional power rankings, check out Joe Prince-Wright’s right here.

Last week was absolutely brutal for the power rankings. Fulham rated out as the top team to fade. Not only did Fulham score once, but they also scored twice. Crushing our hopes and dreams of Arsenal keeping a clean sheet and winning by two goals or more.

Premier League Betting Power rankings - Matchweek 4

Movin’ on Up – Crystal Palace

I haven’t been very high on betting on Crystal Palace this season. Palace saw success after bringing in Roy Hodgson late last season, but their end-of-the-season schedule was favorable. For me, that instantly made them a wait-and-see team for me.

After the first three weeks, I am ready to bet on Palace in some capacity. They haven’t seen the results they particularly expected, but the advanced data suggests that they should be primed for a good result this week.

When looking at their xG vs. actual goals, backing them to score over 1.5 goals at +115 provides a ton of value. Not only did they score twice against Wolves last season at Selhurst Park, but Wolves numbers also suggest they can be had for a few goals.

Wolves have had an xGA of over 2.2 in two of the three and have conceded five goals in three games. They are weak in the midfield and play far too unorganized. Palace have created over 50 shots and have played on the front foot. Two goals for them at this price warrant them moving up in the power rankings.

6. Manchester City – City bullied Sheffield United for much of the match, yet Sheffield United found a way to score. This week, City should be stronger in defense at home. Them to win to nil (-115) has value

7. Fulham – Back to fading this Fulham side. They are not good in front of the net; now they play the league leaders in goals conceded and xGA. Consider looking at them failing to hit the back of the net (-122)

8. Burnley – Burnley and Tottenham are averaging just under 10 corners in their combined six matches this season. If you look at their numbers on offense, the number drops UNDER 9.5, which is available at plus money (+135).

9. Aston Villa – The Villains under Unai Emery have been great while playing on the front foot. This week’s match should feature a ton of end-to-end action. Villa’s over 3.5 corners (-105) has hit in all three matches this season.

10. Luton Town – Luton Town welcomes their supporters into Kenilworth Road for their Premier League home opener. The place is going to be bumping. West Ham have not been stout in defense. It’s hard to imagine both teams don’t score (-125) this weekend.

Down Ya Go – Brighton

FBL-ENG-PR-BRIGHTON-LEICESTER

Brighton’s English striker Danny Welbeck celebrates scoring his team’s second goal during the English Premier League football match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Leicester City at the American Express Community Stadium in Brighton, southern England on September 19, 2021. - RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. (Photo by GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

I’m slotting Brighton in the 11th slot because I don’t have much confidence in their defense against Newcastle this week. If I were forced to on this match, it would be a fade Brighton and backing Newcastle to win (+148).

Brighton have had a much easier road than Newcastle, and they should be proud of the results they’ve seen, apart from their match against West Ham. However, the data worries me for this match. Brighton has allowed far too many shots and touches in their defending third. They also have allowed far too many GCAs in their three games.

However, I could get down with them scoring this week, so suggesting both teams score and over 2.5 goals (-155) isn’t that much of a stretch. I’m not betting it, but if you find yourself wanting more action, look at that number.

12. Liverpool – Boy, Liverpool found a way to win last week despite being down a man and down a goal. Virgil Van Dijk is out, so they should concede. Chasing the game could lead to them hitting over the 6.5 team corners (+100).

13. Nottingham Forest – Forest aren’t getting many corners (4.0), but they are giving up more (8.67) than anyone else in the Prem not named West Ham. Nottingham Forest on the road have yielded an average of 9.5 corners through two road games.

14. Bournemouth – Bournemouth’s stats in terms of shots and possession are up substantially over last season. It has yet to result in a win, but it should produce at least a goal at Community Stadium. BTTS (-140) is a solid play.

15. Sheffield United – Sheffield to win outright as the underdog (+210) will be a sweat, but their offense is more reliable than that of the visiting Toffees, who have yet to find the back of the net this season.

16. Chelsea – Chelsea have averaged 5.0 corners at home through two games at Stamford Bridge. It’s not a stretch to believe they will hit the OVER 6.5 corners (-125).

17. Manchester United – We know their match with Arsenal should feature goals. United have the strength to score on anyone. If this match turns into a total shootout, could we see them score at least two goals (+175)?

18. Newcastle – Newcastle still have me scratching my head. How do you bottle those three points against Liverpool? They should be able to dominate the midfield against Brighton. Look for them to pull away the road win against Brighton (+148).

19. Wolves – I’d rather fade Wolves than bet on them. However, they’ve played well enough this season to confuse me. They should’ve scored against United and beat Everton despite playing the worse. Maybe you bet them to score again (-170).

20. Everton – Does Everton’s desperation to finally score lead to opportunities for both the Toffees and Sheffield Utd? Over 2.5 goals is (+115).