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Wichita State at Cincinnati (-2): O/U 136.5
We have a rematch between the Shockers and Bearcats after a quality outing the first time around.
Cincy won the first meeting 61-57 on the road between the two teams and trailed for a majority of the game. The Bearcats have won eight of the past 10 meetings (80%) between these two squads, including four straight as the favorite.
Wichita State is coming off a four-point win versus USF at home. The Shockers have lost all three road games in conference play this season to Houston (76-66), Tulane (67-66) and UCF (71-66).
The Bearcats are 10-4 (71.4%) on the ML at home this season and 10-2 on the ML (83.3%) as a home favorite, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Cincy lost its past two home games but they were underdogs against Memphis and Houston -- the two top teams in the AAC.
This is a good bounce back spot considering the matchup advantages the Bearcats have.
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Going over the matchup, Cincinnati ranks fifth in both AAC’s rankings for adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, while playing offense at the quickest pace. Wichita State’s defense allows opponents the quickest offensive average possession length and ranks in the bottom-half of a few important categories, per Kenpom.
Wichita State is 11th in offensive two-point percentage (42.7%), eighth in offensive effective field goal percentage (46%), ninth in defensive rebounding percentage (31.6%) and middle of the pack in mostly everything else -- in terms of AAC ranks.
Cincinnati ranks second in defensive two-point percentage (44.3%) and offensive turnover percentage (16.4%) while posting top four conference marks in defensive effective field goal percentage (46.5%), defensive rebounding percentage (28.8%) and fifth in offensive three-point percentage (34.3%).
If Wichita State isn’t hitting triples or rebounding well, this should be a long night as the road dog. The Shockers score nearly 38% of its points from beyond the arc but struggled against the top defensive three-point defenses in the conference.
I like the chances Cincy can speed up the game, win the battle inside and limit Wichita’s triples. Wichita State lost four straight in conference play as a road underdog and 3-7 on the ML over the past 10 instances (30%). The Bearcats have won seven of the past 10 as the home favorite in conference play (70%).
Let’s keep riding that. I played the Cincinnati ML at -134 odds. I would play this out to -140 or opt for -3 at +100.
Pick: Cincinnati ML (1u)
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