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Florida at Vanderbilt (PK): O/U 134.5
Ready for some SEC basketball between two teams that will not be playing much longer?
Florida takes on Vanderbilt in the second meeting of the season. The Gators won the first meeting 61-42 at home without Colin Castleton.
Castleton is in, but Anthony Duruji could be out. Duruji missed the last game for Florida, which does help Vandy tremendously down low. Vandy’s Scottie Pippen struggled with a 1-of-10 (10%) shooting performance in the first meeting with Florida, scoring a season-low six points -- that will not happen again.
However, Liam Robbins is back for Vandy and he did not play in the first meeting. Robbins scored 14 and 16 points before dropping three points in the last game due to foul trouble. Since Robbins came back eight games ago, Vanderbilt has been a cash cow.
Vandy is currently on an eight-game ATS winning streak, per NBC’s Edge Finder (shown below). The Commodores are 3-5 on the ML (37.5%) during that span but lost four of those five games on the road.
Vanderbilt has won four of its past five home games and is 8-3 on the ML (72,7%) as a home favorite this year. Vandy lost to VCU, Temple and South Carolina. However, they beat Georgia, Missouri and Texas A&M as a few highlights.
Florida is 3-6 ATS (33.3%) and on the ML away from home this year. As a road underdog, Florida is 0-3 on the ML and 1-2 ATS (33.3%).
Breaking down the matchup: Florida’s defense is ranked 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency in SEC play.
Versus the nine teams ranked ahead of them in defensive efficiency, the Gators have only won two games. One was versus South Carolina on the road and the other was an underdog home victory against Auburn. Other than that, Florida has lost.
The Gators play slow tempo ball, as do the Commodores, so Florida should have a tough time scoring. In addition to this being a road game, Vanderbilt has size down low to rival Florida, plus terrific three-point defense (28.8% in SEC play).
The Gators are also in a look-ahead spot. Florida has a regular-season finale at home versus Kentucky.
Let’s take Vanderbilt +1 on FD or the ML (PK) if that is all you have available. PB has this as a pick-em game.
Pick: Vanderbilt +1 (1u)
Dayton at Richmond (-2): O/U 132.5
We lost on Dayton -9 versus La Salle in a wacky game. However, the Flyers being road dogs in the next game could be a slight overreaction.
Dayton also still has direct access to winning the A-10. Dayton is in the No. 3 spot and plays No. 1 Davidson to end the regular-season, so the Flyers need help from George Mason tomorrow.
No. 2 VCU also has two tough games versus St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis, so if Dayton wins out, the Flyers can own a share of the A-10 regular-season crown or take it outright.
Dayton has won nine of the last 10 meetings versus Richmond, including eight straight, per NBC’s Edge Finder. If Dayton did not lose outright to La Salle on Saturday, the Flyers would likely be a pick’em and close as the favorite.
Dayton has won six straight games following a loss, including victories versus Miami and Virginia Tech. The Flyers are 4-2 ATS (66.6%) in the last six games after a loss.
Richmond has won two straight games, barely escaping Saint Louis at home on Friday in the previous game (68-66). The Spiders have been one of the best fades of the season at home.
Richmond has been a favorite in every home game and while they have won 11 out of 14 (78.5%), the Spiders only covered four of those games (28.5%).
Richmond is on a three-game ATS losing streak at home and 1-7 ATS (12.5%) in the past eight.
Dayton owns the conference’s No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency (90.7) and rank No. 3 in offense (108.3), coming in top 75 nationally in both. Richmond’s defense ranks 138th in the country (102.1) and 9th in the conference out of 14 teams (102.5), per Kenpom.
The Spiders struggle to defend (36.2%) or make three-pointers (32.9%), while ranking as one of the worst rebounding teams in the A-10. The Flyers are a top rebounding team in conference play and shoot the three at 41.4%, which leads the conference.
Let’s take the Flyers with the points (+2) as they can win this game outright.
Pick: Dayton +2 (1u)
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IUPUI vs. Oakland (-22.5): O/U 125.0
IUPUI is down to five players. They were holding tryouts weeks ago. No bench players, per Gregg Doyel.
This could be bad. I mean, Oakland already beat IUPUI, 78-45 earlier in the season when IUPUI was healthy.
March Madness starts tonight, but the season's craziest, zaniest story is tomorrow, when IUPUI plays in the Horizon League Tournament with an empty bench. Five healthy players, and that's it. The coach is laughing about it, because what else can you do:https://t.co/TKbvSmGqjY
— Gregg Doyel (@GreggDoyelStar) March 1, 2022
Oakland ended the season with a win over Cleveland State by 12. Oakland has not played on the road since Feb. 13 (four straight home games), but with IUPUI on deck in Horizon League Tournament -- I don’t think that matters much.
The Jaguars of IUPUI are ranked dead-last in Kenpom, 358th out 358th overall. Last season, IUPUI lost by 12 in the Horizon League tournament and by 34 points in 2020.
IUPUI is 5-9 ATS (34.7%) in conference play this season and would love nothing more than to end its own season tonight.
Play Oakland on the spread and fade IUPUI’s Team Total as they should struggle to score 50 points with no bench and only five available players.
Taking a look at the season numbers, it is clear Oakland should demolish IUPUI today.
I would play IUPUI Team Total Under 51.5 (-110) down to 50 or 49.5.
I would play Oakland out to -24 and -25 for 1 unit. Play out to -23 for 2 units.
Pick: Oakland -22.5 (2u), IUPUI Team Total Under 51.5 (1u)
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