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DePaul at Louisville (-8): O/U 146.0
DePaul is playing its road game of the season after playing eight straight at home.
The Blue Demons went 7-1 ATS and on the ML (87.5%) during that stretch. Last season, DePaul was 4-3 ATS (57.1%) as a road underdog.
Louisville is 1-3 ATS (25%) at home this season and 6-9 (40%) since the start of 2020-21, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Louisville failed to cover versus Detroit, Furman (lost outright) and Southern at home this season. The Cardinals covered by three points versus Navy.
DePaul was an underdog twice this season and covered both games at home against Loyola Chicago (lost by four, covered by one) and Rutgers (won outright).
The Blue Demons have advantages in this matchup with the Cardinals that can keep this within four possessions.
DePaul’s shortest player is their best player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, standing at 6-foot-4. Louisville’s two guards are both shorter. The Blue Demons have height advantages but we will get to that.
DePaul likes to play fast, ranking 33rd in tempo (72.3) and 20th in average offensive possession length (15.5 seconds). Like DePaul, Louisville owns a quick possession length on the offensive end (15.8, 37th), but its opponents average 18.0 seconds per offensive possession (280th).
Louisville could slow the game down, and that would mean DePaul needs to make shots or get the charity stripe often. Against Loyola, DePaul went 9-of-13 (69.2%) from the line, and versus Rutgers, the Blue Demons posted an 18-of-33 (54.5%) mark.
On the year, DePaul ranks top 100 in a plethora of offensive categories while averaging 85.3 PPG (T-10th) and a 16.2% turnover percentage (49th), per Kenpom.
Furman ranks 12th in points per game (85.1) and 18.1% turnover percentage (131st) -- they beat Louisville and have similar EFG% and 3PT% to DePaul with far less height. Furman is 347th in average height and DePaul is 16th.
The Blue Demons are the bigger team in this matchup and have offensive rebounded at a 35.2% clip (35th). The Cardinals do a great job limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds at 22.7% (35th). That will be Louisville’s calling card in this game along with paint defense.
Louisville’s defense ranks 19th in the nation with a 91.0 adjusted efficiency, holding six of its eight opponents to 68 points or fewer. However, Louisville does not rank top 100 in much offensively, including a 30.6% three-point percentage (257th).
Furman had a worse three-point defense than DePaul and the Cardinals went 7-of-29 (24.1%) in that loss to Furman.
If this is a low-scoring game, DePaul can hang in with its offense and size -- if it’s a track meet, then the Blue Demons have a shot at the upset. Take DePaul to keep it close down to +7.
Pick: DePaul +8 (1u)
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