Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting Tre Mitchell’s player prop in West Virginia vs Oklahoma State, plus Hawaii vs Cal State Bakersfield!
Tre Mitchell O/U 9.5 Points vs. Oklahoma State
Let’s roll with a fellow Pittsburgh guy in Tre Mitchell of West Virginia.
Mitchell has scored nine or fewer points in five-straight games and seven of the past eight but we’re rocking with the Over here.
In Mitchell’s previous meeting versus Oklahoma State, he scored 16 points on the road in a full 40 minute effort. Mitchell finished the game with 16 points, 7 rebounds, plus two steals and one block in the 67-60 loss.
This is a revenge spot for WVU at home and the Mountaineers are looking to avoid back-to-back home losses and four-straight overall. Mitchell went Under 9.5 points in four-straight home games but I believe this is an ideal bounce back spot versus an opponent he’s already had success against.
The Cowboys have two players at 6-foot-9 but they weigh 25 pounds or less than Mitchell (6-foot-9 225 lbs). Even Oklahoma State’s 7-foot-1 big off the bench weighs less than Mitchell.
Mitchell has attempted 22 three-pointers in seven Big 12 home games and shooting a career-high 38.3% from deep this season. The WVU center posts a 43/36/81 shooting split at home this year.
For Oklahoma State, the Pokes allow 39% from three and 49.6% from two-point range on the road in conference play. Those are certainly favorable numbers for Mitchell who likes to jack threes and has a size advantage down low.
The former former Minuteman and Longhorn big man has his points line set at 9.5 on DraftKings with -130 odds to the Over. I would play this to Over 10.5 points for +100 or better.
Pick: Tre Mitchell Over 9.5 Points (1u)
Hawaii (-6) at Cal State Bakersfield: O/U 120.5
This is the lowest total on the board and for good reason.
Hawaii ranks 329th in offensive tempo and and Cal State Bakersfield is 360th on the season (out of 363). However, Hawaii is facing a short turn around with only one day of rest since its 70-67 win at Long Beach State.
When Hawaii has played on short rest, the Rainbow Warriors games combined for 103, 125, 141, 109 and 151 points since the New Year (125.8 PPG). Cal State Bakersfield last played on Wednesday (15th), so they have the rest advantage at home coming off a 70-62 road win at Cal Poly.
Hawaii does not turn the ball over in conference road games (16.8%) and the Rainbow Warriors own a stellar three-point defense (26%). On the other hand, Cal State shoots 40.9% from three at home in Big West play (1s) and only turns the ball over 16% of the time (1st), so these are two forces meeting up.
However, Cal State gets most of their points from two, in fact, at the 21st-highest rate in the country (58.6%). The Road Runners scored 73 and 82 points in their last two home games and in the earlier meeting between these two teams, Hawaii won at home, 72-69.
Both these squads shoot 77% or better from the free-throw line in conference play, ranking first and second, so if we have a close game or need free-throws, we have the two best in the Big West.
I played the Over 120.5 at -110 odds and would go to 122.5.
Pick: Over 120.5 (1u)
Leans:
Minnesota at Illinois (-15): O/U 135.5
The Gophers are coming off a three-game home stand that resulted in losses of 35, 12 and 7 points. Now, Minnesota is on the road at Illinois, who is coming off a heartbreaking loss at Indiana that was followed by a 12 point loss at Penn State.
Illinois is in a beautiful bounce back spot at home and already won by 18 at Minnesota earlier this season. The Illini’s 78-60 win sparked a nine-game losing streak for Minnesota that they’re currently still on. During that stretch, Minnesota has played three road games and scored 61, 56 and 55 points at Michigan, Northwestern and Rutgers.
Minnesota lost 76-53 last season versus Illinois, plus 92-65 and 94-63 in 2021. The Gophers offense is very restricted and I expect that to continue on the road at Illinois as Minnesota has nothing to play for until the Big Ten Tournament.
I am not into playing -15 spreads, but hard lean for Illinois. I will keep an eye on the 1H Team Total for Illinois as they have scored 33 or more points in four-straight home games and recorded 35 points at Minnesota earlier this season.
Louisville at Duke (-18): O/U 137.5
This should be a snoozer to kick off the Monday Night College Basketball slate.
Louisville has four wins on the season and in the three instances following a victory, Louisville beat Florida A&M (61-55), lost to Lipscomb (75-67) and lost to Florida State (81-78).
In all three games, Louisville was the home team and this time following a win at home versus Clemson, Louisville is now the road team following the victory -- a situation they have not been in.
Both teams played on Saturday and travel, so there is no rest advantage. However, Duke is coming off an impressive 22-point win at Syracuse and continues to climb uphill towards the best possible seeding for the tournament.
Against teams ranked outside the top 150 and as the home team, Duke has scored 86, 82, 75, 74, 92, 84 and 71 points this season (80.5 PPG).
Against teams ranked inside the top 100 and when they are the road team, Louisville has lost by 8, 34, 13, 23 and 12 points (margin of -17). The Cardinals allowed 76 or more points in all five games and permitted an average of 85.8 points per game.
This seems like a trap spot for Duke bettors after their dominant effort at Syracuse, but no way I am taking Louisville.
I will look for in game live angle on Duke 1H or their full game Team Total.
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