Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the Big Ten matchup with Michigan State at Nebraska and an ACC duel between Clemson visiting Virginia.
Clemson at Virgina (-6.5): O/U 129.5
Let’s kick the night off with two ACC teams and the favorite being the more desperate team.
Virginia owns one of the bottom-10 tempos in all of college basketball, ranking 360th in overall tempo and average defensive possession length as well as 337th in average offensive possession length. Defensively, Clemson plays slow on defense (288th) and quicker on offense (119th).
Both Clemson and Virginia are two of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the conference and both excel at defensive rebounding, so expect fewer second-chance points.
The difference in this game will be Virginia’s free-throws and three-point defense.
Clemson allows the second-most points to ACC opponents from the free-throw line (19.3%) and Virginia is shooting 75% or better from the free-throw line in four of the past five home games. The Cavaliers don’t own the best three-point defense (35.5%, but the Tigers struggle from three (34.6%), especially on the road in ACC play (32.8%).
Virginia is coming off two-straight road losses and lost control of the ACC. The Cavs will look to regroup at home versus an opponent they have beat in 12 of the last 13 meetings. On the other hand, Clemson is coming off a road win at NC State on Saturday but dropped three-straight road games by at least eight points before that.
A Virginia win over Clemson clinches a top-4 seed and double bye at the ACC Tournament. Give me the Cavaliers -6.5 (-110) out to -7.
Pick: Virginia -6.5 (1u)
Michigan State (-4) at Nebraska: O/U 139.0
We end the night with a Big Ten battle between Michigan State and Nebraska.
Michigan State lost six of its past seven road games, including the the past two at Michigan, then that insane loss at Iowa in OT. Michigan State was up 91-78 with 1:34 remaining in the second half and lost. Coming off that emotionally draining loss at Iowa, Michigan State has to be deflated, while Nebraska is hot right now.
Nebraska is on a season-high four-game winning streak and has five wins in the last six games with a lone road loss at Michigan. Nebraska has beaten Wisconsin, Rutgers, Maryland and Minnesota during the Cornhuskers winning streak.
Michigan State beat Nebraska in Lansing 74-56 behind Tyson Walker’s 21 game-high points, so this is a revenge spot for Nebraska at home. This is the final home game for the Cornhuskers and this is the best Nebraska team in awhile.
The Cornhuskers have not beaten the Spartans dating back to 2016, losing 10-straight. Nebraska is inching closer to breaking that losing streak and being at home this season in Big Ten play has the betting move.
There has been an array of Nebraska players getting buckets lately ranging from Derrick Walker, Keisei Tominaga, Sam Hoiberg and more. The Cornhuskers are 11-3 at home this season and have led at halftime in four of the last six home games and three-straight overall.
Give me Nebraska 1H +2.5 (-120) on Senior night as they should get out to an early start and we’ll see if they can overcome that losing streak to Michigan State following their epic loss at Iowa on Saturday.
Pick: Nebraska 1H +2.5 (1u)
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