Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet VCU vs Dayton and A-10 action and Michigan State against Maryland in Big Ten play, plus Marquette and UConn.
Dayton at VCU (-3): O/U 129.0
This should be another fun matchup for VCU as they take on a Dayton Flyers squad that struggles on the road.
Dayton lost three-straight road games by five or more points at St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island and George Washington. The Flyers are 19-of-64 (29.8%) from three in that three-game road stretch and averaged 66 points per game against defenses that ranked 109th, 157th and 301st in adjusted efficiency. VCU is 22nd.
The Flyers are 2-5 in true road games and 1-3 in neutral court games for a combined 3-8 record away from home.
On road and neutral courts, Dayton hits the three at 30.1% (301st), turns the ball over 20.5% of the time (268th) and only forces a turnover 16.1% of the time (274th). Additionally, they have struggled from the free-throw line with a 69.6% mark (211th).
VCU is coming off tough back-to-back road wins and have yet to lose back-to-back home games this year. VCU lost at home to St. Bonaventure in their previous home outing. The Rams last back-to-back home loss came in 2020.
Dayton plays at one of the slowest tempos in the nation (357 out of 363) and that falls right into how VCU plays defense. Expect this to be a grind for Dayton and VCU’s defense to carry them to another victory.
I risked 2 units on VCU’s ML at -150 odds to win 1. 33 units. This will close between -180 to -200 on the ML.
Pick: VCU ML (Risk 2u)
Marquette at UConn (-4): O/U 149.0
UConn beat Marquette four-straight games before the Golden Eagles won 82-76 on Jan. 11.
I feel a tide shifting in this series as Marquette looks to take over the Big East.
Looking over UConn’s conference schedule, they have beaten Butler twice, Georgetown twice, DePaul, plus home wins over Villanova and Creighton. Outside of those opponents, UConn is 0-6 versus Xavier, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall and St. John’s.
I have not impressed with UConn after their 14-0 start as they have come back down to Earth. The Huskies are 7-6 in conference play with a 4-2 home record. UConn lost to St. John’s and Xavier at home and wins of eight-plus points in the rest.
Marquette is 5-3 in true road games this year with top 10 national ranks in offensive efficiency (122.1), field goal percentage (56.1%), offensive turnover percentage (14.4%) and two-point percentage (59.6%).
The Golden Eagles road losses this year came to the hands of Purdue (75-70), Providence (103-98 2OT) and Xavier (80-76). I expect another close road outing with potential for an outright win and sweep on the season.
I think Marquette is the best team in the Big East. In the first meeting versus Marquette, UConn turned the ball over 16 times and had 16 assists with 6-of-22 from three (27.3%). Shaka Smart and this Marquette defense will continue to use pressure to their advantage.
Versus top 50 ranked teams, UConn is 5-5 this season with a loss in five of the last six. Marquette is 8-5 in top 100 ranked games with the five losses by five or fewer points.
Marquette has won five-straight games and 10 of its last 11, including a 4-1 road record in that stretch. I love the way this team is playing and UConn has not recorded three-straight wins since the calendar flipped to 2023.
This will be a competitive game, so I grabbed Marquette at +4 and -110 odds. I’d play this down to +2.
Pick: Marquette +4 (1u)
Maryland at Michigan State (-2.5): O/U 131.5
This will be the best game of the night and it’s a Big Ten matchup, let’s go!
Michigan State is 9-2 in home games this season and 4-2 in conference home games. The Spartans are a top three team in Big Ten play at home with a 20.4% three-point defensive percentage, 43.2% defensive effective field goal percentage and No. 2 rated defensive efficiency (88.9).
The MSU defense should present issues for a Maryland squad that has struggled on the road.
Maryland is 1-5 in road Big Ten games and has posted awful shooting performances. Maryland is shooting 59.6% from the free-throw line (355th), 32% from three (215th) and 47.4% for two-point percentage (217th) in those six games.
The Maryland pace should also be a positive for Michigan State and its defense. The Terps rank 283rd in adjusted tempo and 361st on defense out of 363 teams. The Spartans are 296th in tempo and 318th defensively, so both defenses should present challenges, but the pace will play into Michigan State’s favor at home.
Lastly Michigan State’s offense gets an assist on 57.9% of their field goals (33rd), which should help against the Terps slow defense. Maryland only gets an assist on 44.2% of baskets (235th), so I favor the Spartans ball movement over the Terps too.
Maryland is 1-4 in its last five trips to Michigan State. The Spartans have lost two-straight games, both on the road, so they have urgency here to get a home win.
The Terps lost five-straight road games to open conference play before beating Minnesota 81-46. Maryland finished last season 3-7 in Big Ten road games, including a 10-point loss at Michigan State.
This is a big bounce back spot for MSU at home. I took the Spartans on the ML at -140 odds. This will close between -160 and -170 most places.
Pick: Michigan State ML (1u)
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