Vaughn Dalzell breaks down four College Basketball games, including American at Boston University, UCF vs Wichita State, San Diego State vs Utah State, plus a ML Parlay!
American at Boston University (-2): O/U 128.5
America beat Boston 76-74 at home on Jan. 8.
American plays at one of the slowest offensive tempos (356th) and tempos overall (343rd) compared to Boston who ranks 355th in defensive tempo and 259th overall. The score was quite high for the first meeting considering these two teams paces because both teams lived at the free-throw line (combined 44-of-57).
Both teams are slumping. Boston has lost eight of its last 10 games with both wins over Loyola Maryland. American has gone 3-5 over the last eight games with home wins over Army and Colgate, plus a road win at Navy.
I like American Eagles to extract revenge on the Boston Terriers. The Eagles turn the ball over 22.6% of the time (356th) and cannot stop the three-pointer (35.8%, 284th). The Eagles defense hasn’t been that great on the road this year, especially in Patriot League action.
The American defense ranks 8th or worse out of 10 teams in conference play when it comes to effective field goal defense (52.9%), three-point offense (33.3%), three-point defense (38.2%) and offensive turnover percentage (24.2%) on the road in Patriot League.
Boston has a major rebounding advantage at home with the 51st and 52nd rebounding ranks nationally, plus the Terriers force a turnover 21.9% of the time. The Terriers went 4-of-16 from three (25%) in that meeting versus the Eagles but found a rhythm in the previous game with a 10-of-24 performance from three (41.7%).
Boston is 6-2 in the last eight home games versus American and won two-straight. I played the Boston Terriers ML at -130 odds on DraftKings and would go to -150.
Pick: Boston University ML (1u)
UCF at Wichita State (-3): O/U 133.5
UCF beat Wichita State at home 52-45 back on Dec. 28.
Wichita State has won all five meetings at home against UCF, but is 3-3 on the road at UCF.
Craig Porter did not play in that matchup versus UCF earlier this season. Porter scored nine or more points in eight of the next 10 games following that missed outing at UCF. He is an intricate piece of the team as he’s played 74.8% of Wichita’s conference minutes (23rd in AAC).
The Shockers have alternated wins and losses in their past six games, not winning two-straight once, but I like that streak to break here. The Knights lost five-straight games, including three-straight on the road by 8, 9 and 13 points.
UCF is 2-4 in true road games this season with the 321st ranked offensive turnover percentage (22%), plus subpar shooting numbers and defensive turnover percentage in conference road play.
The Shockers are 1-4 in home conference games after playing some of the best teams in the AAC, while owning the second-best offensive turnover percentage (14.8%), which could be the difference here against a UCF team that turns the ball over quite a lot.
Wichita State is 0-4 in home games versus top 100 opponents, losing to Missouri (OT), Tulane (OT), Cincinnati and Houston. I like the Shockers to break that stretch and beat an UCF team that should not be ranked top 100 still.
I laid the -140 on the ML with the Wichita State Shockers on DraftKings/Bet MGM. I would go out to -150.
Pick: Wichita State ML (1u)
San Diego State at Utah State (-2): O/U 146.0
Another revenge game for the home team as Utah State lost 85-75 at San Diego State on Jan. 25.
That was Utah State’s only loss in the past six games and the Aggies trailed 37-17 in the first half as the biggest deficient, so Utah State never got off the bus. The Aggies will be up for this home game.
San Diego State is 6-1 in true road games this season and are coming off their first road loss to Nevada, before beating Boise State at home. The Aztecs lost back-to-back neutral court games earlier in the season, so it is possible to lose back-to-back road games.
Utah State is 10-1 at home with five-consecutive wins and top 20 nationally ranks in three-point offense (43.2%), offensive efficiency (115.7) and defensive rebounding percentage (21.8%), among a few more rankings.
However, the Aggies’ problem has been turnovers. They turn the ball over 20.3% of the time in MWC play at home (11th out of 11th) but do everything else well. While this worries me, Utah State has lost the turnover battle in three-straight home games versus San Diego State and the Aggies are 3-0 on the ML.
Utah State only had 10 free-throw attempts and went 11-of-33 from three (33.3%) at San Diego State. I expect better numbers and worse for San Diego State, who went 12-of-22 from three at home (54.5%). The Aztecs have shot 39% from three on the road this year, but I expect serious regression starting now.
Utah State has won three-straight at home versus San Diego State and four of the previous five meetings in Logan, Utah. Give me the Aggies to get some revenge at home for -130 odds on DraftKings. I would go out to -150.
Pick: Utah State ML (Risk 2u)
ML Parlay (+105)
Hofstra ML at Northeastern
West Virginia ML vs Iowa State
WVU has won every meeting at home versus Iowa State since 2015. Obviously, this Cyclones team is much better than year’s past, but the Mountaineers are getting hot and we all know WVU is a tough atmosphere to play in.
Iowa State has not won back-to-back games in a month and West Virginia is 4-2 in the last six games after losing five-straight to start January. WVU is 10-3 at home with losses to Kansas, Baylor and Texas, arguably the three best teams in the BIG 12. The Mountaineers rebound well, shoot well and rank top 55 in both offensive and defensive efficiency as the home team.
Iowa State is 2-5 on the road this season, turning the ball over 21.6% of the time (312th), defending the three-ball at 39.4% clip (326th) and abysmal free-throw shooting numbers (57.8%).
For Hofstra, they have won five-straight and nine of the last 10 games compared to Northeastern who lost four-straight. Northeastern is 3-8 in true road games this season, struggling to make the three (32.7%, 256th) and terrible turnover numbers, both offensive (21.1%, 331st) and defensive (14.9%, 350th).
Hofstra did not have Aaron Estrada in the previous game and if he’s back, this spread and ML should grow larger. This opened at -5.5 and is now -7.5, so Estrada is likely playing.
Hofstra is 15-6 with Estrada this season and has top three ranks on the road in conference play for efficiency, both offensive and defensive, plus offensive turnover percentage (15.4%), three-point offense (38%), three-point defense (28%) and the same with two-pointers.
I played Hofstra and WVU on the ML together for +105 odds on DraftKings and would go down to -110.
Pick: Hofstra ML and West Virginia ML Parlay (1u)
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