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Oklahoma at Texas (-6.5): O/U 129.0
We have a stellar Tuesday evening matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns.
Oklahoma has been a covering machine on the road at Texas, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Over the last 10 road trips to Austin, Texas, the Sooners have covered eight times (80%), including three straight and seven of the last eight as a road underdog (87.5%) as shown below in the graph.
Overall, Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS (70%), going 4-1 (80%) in the previous five as the road team in this series -- it does not matter if they are the dog or favorite.
This year, I am very high on Texas. I bet them to win the Big 12 and have some lunch money on Final Four and NCAA Champion. However, the Longhorns have shown weaknesses despite the 12-3 overall record.
Tre Mitchell (9.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG), the Texas center transferred from UMass, remains out with COVID. Mitchell missed the previous game against Oklahoma State, a 13-point road loss.
Texas did receive Andrew Jones back, who scored 10 points with four fouls in 22 minutes off the bench. Timmy Allen leads the team with 11.9 PPG, and Marcus Carr (9.7 PPG) remains hit or miss with this Longhorns team.
The Longhorns are struggling with the three-ball in conference play, ranking eight in offensive and defensive three-point percentage through three Big 12 games.
The Sooners are one of the better three-point shooting teams on the season, ranking 53rd overall (36.3%) and fourth in Big 12 play (37.3%).
Oklahoma is 37th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, while Texas ranks top 35 in both. However, there are two glaring differences in this game.
1. The pace of play. Texas is 354th in adjusted tempo and plays at the third-slowest average possession length on defense at 18.9 seconds.
Oklahoma plays much quicker (243rd in adjusted tempo) and will attempt to push the pace on offense (17.2 seconds of average possession length, 149th quickest) or knock-down triples.
2. Texas also is a good offensive rebounding team, but without Mitchell, that suffered against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, and you can bet the Sooners will try to replicate that.
Oklahoma is a much better defensive rebounding team, but expect the Sooners to win the rebounding battle overall and improve the offensive board numbers with Tre Mitchell out.
The Sooners also have three double-digit scorers, plus all five starters at 28 or more minutes. I like the balance of the Sooners to cover, along with the historical backing in the series, mixed with Tre Mitchell being out.
Coming off an ML loss, Texas is abysmal ATS. They are 3-6-1 ATS (30%) in the last 10, including a 1-6-1 ATS (14.2%) mark in the previous eight.
In the last 10 against Big 12 opponents following an ML loss, the longhorns are 2-7-1 ATS (22.21%), which is shown below.
Since the start of 2021, Oklahoma has gone 6-3 ATS on the road (66.7%) and, more importantly, 10-2 ATS in the past 12 (83.3%) as an underdog, per NBC’s Game Predictions.
That is worth backing, while Texas is 14-17-1 ATS (45.1%) since the start of 2020 as the favorite, including a 9-11-1 ATS (45%) mark as the home favorite in that span.
This is a little too many points. I would play Oklahoma down to +5 as I think +4.5 or +5 is a fair price, although I like almost getting a touchdown on the underdog in this Big 12 hoops matchup.
Pick: Oklahoma +6.5 (1u)
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